104 ticks potential profit on 10 January 2025, analysis on trading soybeans, corn and wheat futures on USDA WASDE and USDA Grain Stocks data

According to our analysis soybeans (ZS), corn (ZC) and wheat (WC) futures prices moved around 104 ticks (36 ticks, 40 ticks and 28 ticks) on USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) and USDA Grain Stocks data on 10 January 2025.

Soybeans (36 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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January 2025 WASDE and Grain Stocks Report: Key Takeaways for Agricultural Traders

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE - 656) and Grain Stocks Report released on January 10, 2025 provide a comprehensive update on the supply, demand, and stock levels for key commodities. For traders, these reports offer essential insights into potential price movements and market dynamics in the months ahead.

Below is a detailed breakdown of the key highlights for cotton, corn, soybeans, and wheat, covering both U.S. and global markets.

1. Cotton: Bearish Signals from Higher Stocks and Lower Prices

• U.S. Cotton Outlook:

  • Production: Increased by 159,000 bales to 14.4 million bales, driven by higher yields (836 pounds/harvested acre) despite reduced harvested area in the Southwest.

  • Exports: Lowered by 300,000 bales to 11.0 million bales.

  • Ending Stocks: Increased to 4.8 million bales, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to 38%.

  • Farm Price: Reduced to 65 cents per pound, reflecting ample supply and reduced export demand.

• Global Cotton Market:

  • Production: Raised by 2 million bales to 119.4 million bales, primarily due to a 1.8 million-bale increase in China.

  • Consumption: Increased by 100,000 bales, driven by Bangladesh and Vietnam.

  • Trade: Global exports are up 225,000 bales, as gains in Brazil, Australia, and India offset the reduction in U.S. exports.

  • Ending Stocks: Increased by 1.9 million bales, with notable increases in China, Australia, and India.

💡 Trading Takeaway:
The cotton market presents bearish signals as higher global production and U.S. export cuts weigh on prices. Traders should monitor Southeast Asian demand closely and assess the potential impact of China’s stockpiling strategy.

2. Corn: Tighter Supplies Signal Price Support

U.S. Corn Outlook (WASDE):

• Production: Cut to 14.9 billion bushels (-276 million bushels), reflecting a yield reduction to 179.3 bushels/acre (-3.8 bushels/acre).

• Use:

  • Feed & Residual: Reduced by 50 million bushels to 5.8 billion bushels, due to lower-than-expected feed demand.

  • Exports: Lowered by 25 million bushels to 2.5 billion bushels.

• Ending Stocks: Reduced by 198 million bushels to 1.88 billion bushels.

• Farm Price: Increased to $4.25 per bushel (+$0.15), reflecting tighter supplies.

Grain Stocks Report (Corn):

• Total Corn Stocks (Dec 1, 2024): 12.1 billion bushels (-1% year-over-year).

  • On-Farm Stocks: 7.66 billion bushels (-2%).

  • Off-Farm Stocks: 4.41 billion bushels (+2%).

• Disappearance (Sep-Nov 2024): 4.56 billion bushels, slightly above the 4.53 billion bushels reported for the same period in 2023.

Global Corn Market:

• Production: Lowered by 4.8 million tons to 1.494 billion tons, though China’s record harvest (294.9 million tons) offsets some global losses.

• Trade: Global exports declined due to reductions in U.S. and Brazilian shipments.

• Ending Stocks: Lowered by 3.1 million tons to 293.3 million tons, with China increasing its reserves to a record level.

💡 Trading Takeaway:
Corn prices could remain firm due to tightening U.S. supplies and strong domestic feed demand. The market will closely watch Brazil’s export pace and China’s reserve strategy as key determinants of price direction.

3. Soybeans: Higher Stocks with Strong Seasonal Demand

Grain Stocks Report (Soybeans):

• Total Soybean Stocks (Dec 1, 2024): 3.10 billion bushels (+3% year-over-year).

  • On-Farm Stocks: 1.54 billion bushels (+6%).

  • Off-Farm Stocks: 1.56 billion bushels (+1%).

• Disappearance (Sep-Nov 2024): 1.61 billion bushels, up 13% from the same period in 2023, reflecting stronger seasonal demand.

U.S. Soybean Outlook (WASDE):

While soybeans were not specifically highlighted in the WASDE production changes, the robust disappearance from the Grain Stocks Report signals sustained demand, especially for exports and domestic processing.

💡 Trading Takeaway:
The combination of rising stocks and strong disappearance could lead to price fluctuations. Traders should closely watch South American harvest updates and any geopolitical developments that could influence export markets.

4. Wheat: Rising Stocks Amid Strong Demand

U.S. Wheat Outlook (WASDE):

• Supplies: Increased by 5 million bushels to 130 million bushels, driven by higher imports of Hard Red Spring wheat.

• Domestic Use:

  • Feed & Residual Use: Unchanged at 120 million bushels.

  • Seed Use: Increased by 2 million bushels to 64 million bushels.

• Exports: Steady at 850 million bushels despite by-class adjustments.

• Ending Stocks: Raised by 3 million bushels to 798 million bushels (+15% year-over-year).

• Farm Price: Reduced by $0.05 to $5.55 per bushel.

Grain Stocks Report (Wheat):

• Total Wheat Stocks (Dec 1, 2024): 1.57 billion bushels (+10% year-over-year).

  • On-Farm Stocks: 467 million bushels (+16%).

  • Off-Farm Stocks: 1.10 billion bushels (+8%).

• Disappearance (Sep-Nov 2024): 423 million bushels, up 22% from the same period in 2023, reflecting robust demand.

Global Wheat Market:

• Supplies: Raised by 0.4 million tons to 1,060.7 million tons, with gains in Syria and Pakistan offsetting reductions in Uruguay.

• Consumption: Lowered by 0.6 million tons, with Turkey’s demand decrease partially offset by increased usage in Ukraine.

• Trade: Global exports are down 1.7 million tons due to reduced shipments from Russia and Ukraine.

• Ending Stocks: Increased by 0.9 million tons to 258.8 million tons, with increases in Russia, Brazil, and Ukraine offsetting declines in China and Indonesia.

💡 Trading Takeaway:
The wheat market remains mixed. While U.S. imports and global stocks are rising, strong domestic demand and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region could continue to influence prices. Traders should watch for export developments and changes in demand from key buyers like Turkey and China.

Key Summary for Traders:

Commodity	U.S. Supply Trend	Global Supply Trend	Market Sentiment
Cotton	Higher stocks	Rising global production	Bearish
Corn	Lower production	Slight stock decline	Bullish
Soybeans	Higher stocks	Strong demand	Mixed
Wheat	Increased imports	Higher global stocks	Mixed

Final Thoughts:

Agricultural markets are bracing for potential price volatility as the WASDE and Grain Stocks reports highlight key supply and demand shifts. Key areas to watch include:

1. Cotton: Price pressure remains due to higher global production and reduced U.S. exports.

2. Corn: Tighter U.S. supplies and robust feed demand could support prices.

3. Soybeans: Despite higher stocks, strong seasonal demand may limit bearish movements.

4. Wheat: Strong demand contrasts with rising stocks, creating a mixed outlook sensitive to geopolitical risks.

Traders should remain alert to any new developments, particularly weather conditions in South America, policy changes in China, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, as these could significantly impact commodity prices in the coming months.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0125.pdf, https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/xg94hp534/5d86qt759/xp68nc84m/grst0125.pdf

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Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks and yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage.

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35 pips and 210 points potential profit in 80 seconds on 10 January 2025, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US30 on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY, EURUSD and US30 moved around 35 pips and 210 points on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 10 January 2025.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (16 pips)

US30 (210 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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December 2024 Employment Report: Key Takeaways for Traders

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its December 2024 Employment Situation Report today, revealing a mixed but largely positive labor market. Here’s what traders need to know and how the data could influence markets in the near term.

Key Highlights of the Report

• Nonfarm Payroll Growth:
  Nonfarm payrolls increased by 256,000, beating market expectations. Gains were led by health care, government, social assistance, and retail trade.

• Unemployment Rate:
  The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market despite concerns of potential softening.

• Wage Growth:
  Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month (+10 cents), bringing the annual wage growth to 3.9% year-over-year.

• Labor Force Participation Rate:
  Unchanged at 62.5%, maintaining the same range seen throughout 2024.

Market Implications

1. Equity Markets:

• Bullish Signal: The robust payroll growth could support cyclical sectors like retail, health care, and consumer discretionary.

• Earnings Potential: With strong wage gains and improved retail hiring, markets may see positive sentiment heading into Q1 earnings season.

• Caveat: If wage growth accelerates beyond expectations in future reports, it could reignite inflation fears.

2. Bond Markets:

• The steady unemployment rate and solid job gains could increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady. However, continued strength may push yields higher if investors price in a more hawkish Fed stance.

3. Forex Market:

• The U.S. dollar may strengthen in response to better-than-expected job numbers, as it reinforces confidence in the U.S. economy.

• Watch for USD pairs, particularly with currencies of economies that are experiencing slower labor market recoveries.

Sector Breakdown for December 2024

• Health Care (+46,000 jobs): Gains were seen across home health care services (+15,000), nursing care facilities (+14,000), and hospitals (+12,000). This continued sector strength may benefit health care ETFs and equities.

• Retail Trade (+43,000 jobs): A recovery from November’s losses was driven by increases in apparel, general merchandise, and health and personal care stores. Retail-focused traders may view this as a sign of resilient consumer demand.

• Government (+33,000 jobs): Job gains, primarily in state government roles, continued a positive trend, though at a slower pace than in 2023.

• Social Assistance (+23,000 jobs): Continued steady growth here supports the broader theme of demand for care services.

Wage and Workweek Trends

• Average Hourly Earnings: Up $0.10 to $35.69 (+3.9% YoY).

• Production and Nonsupervisory Workers: Wages increased by $0.06 to $30.62, signaling continued earnings momentum for middle-income workers.

However, the average workweek remained at 34.3 hours, unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, indicating stable labor utilization across sectors.

Revisions and Seasonal Adjustments

The revisions for October and November combined resulted in a net downward adjustment of 8,000 jobs. Traders should take note of these recalibrations, which may indicate some volatility in reporting but largely point to a stable employment trend.

Key Risks to Watch

• Fed Policy: Traders should monitor any commentary from Federal Reserve officials, as this report keeps the door open for either policy stability or future tightening if wage pressures persist.

• Economic Slowdown Concerns: While the labor market remains strong, longer-term concerns about a potential slowdown in consumer spending or corporate hiring could affect future payroll reports.

• Global Market Sentiment: The forex and commodity markets could be impacted by how global investors interpret the U.S. labor market’s strength relative to international economic conditions.

Conclusion

The December 2024 employment report reinforces the narrative of a robust U.S. labor market with healthy job creation, stable unemployment, and moderate wage growth. Traders should position themselves for potential equity market gains in cyclical sectors while keeping a close eye on bond yields and the Federal Reserve's evolving stance. The next employment report, scheduled for February 7, 2025, will provide further clues as to whether this momentum can continue into the new year.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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25 pips potential profit in 153 seconds on 7 January 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 25 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 7 January 2025.

USDJPY (13 pips)

EURUSD (12 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Understanding the Job Market: Insights from the November 2024 JOLTS Report

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for November 2024, shedding light on the current state of the labor market. Let’s break down the key takeaways and what they mean for job seekers, employers, and policymakers.

Overview of the Labor Market

In November 2024, the number of job openings remained steady at 8.1 million, reflecting minimal month-over-month change but indicating a year-over-year decrease of 833,000 openings. Despite this overall stability, there were notable fluctuations within specific industries that underscore the nuanced nature of the current labor market.

Job Openings: Industry Trends

The job openings rate, at 4.8%, remained largely unchanged. However, there were significant shifts within certain sectors:

• Professional and Business Services: Increased by +273,000 job openings.

• Finance and Insurance: Gained +105,000 new openings.

• Private Educational Services: Increased by +38,000.

• Information Sector: Decreased by -89,000 openings.

These trends suggest continued demand for professionals in service-oriented roles and financial sectors, while industries such as information technology face a reduction in new opportunities.

Hiring Activity

The number of hires in November 2024 stood at 5.3 million, reflecting no significant month-to-month change but marking a year-over-year decline of 300,000 hires. The overall hiring rate remained at 3.3%, signaling a labor market where hiring activity is maintaining a slower but steady pace.

Separations and Quits: A Closer Look

Total separations, which include quits, layoffs, and other types of departures, were 5.1 million in November, down 287,000 from the same period last year. Here’s how the components break down:

• Quits: The number of voluntary resignations dropped to 3.1 million, a decrease of 218,000 over the month and 451,000 over the year. This brought the quits rate to 1.9%, signaling more caution among workers when considering job changes.

• Layoffs and Discharges: These involuntary separations remained at 1.8 million, although this figure represents an increase of 219,000 compared to the previous year. This uptick was particularly noticeable in the accommodation and food services sector, which saw +102,000 additional layoffs and discharges.

The drop in quits suggests a more conservative approach from workers in a period of economic uncertainty, while the rise in layoffs points to possible cost-cutting measures in certain industries.

Impact by Establishment Size

The report also highlighted differences based on company size:

• Small Establishments (1-9 employees): Experienced a decrease in layoffs and discharges.

• Large Establishments (5,000+ employees): Showed little to no change in job openings, hires, or separations, indicating stability in employment patterns for larger employers.

Revisions for October 2024

Revisions to the previous month’s data provided additional clarity:

• Job Openings: Revised upward by 95,000 to 7.8 million.

• Hires: Revised upward by 81,000 to 5.4 million.

• Separations: Revised upward by 45,000 to 5.3 million.

• Within separations, quits were revised downward by 43,000 to 3.3 million, while layoffs and discharges were revised upward by 115,000.

These revisions underscore the importance of ongoing data collection and adjustments as more information becomes available.

What This Means for You

For Job Seekers: The reduction in voluntary quits suggests that fewer people are willing to take the risk of switching jobs. However, opportunities in professional services, finance, and education remain strong.

For Employers: Businesses in certain sectors may need to reconsider hiring and retention strategies to compete for available talent, especially as hiring has slowed but layoffs remain elevated in some industries.

For Policymakers: The increase in layoffs in specific industries and the overall cooling in quits could indicate emerging economic pressures, potentially influencing future policy decisions related to labor and employment.

Looking Ahead

The next JOLTS report, covering December 2024, is scheduled for release on February 4, 2025. As we head into the new year, it will be critical to monitor how labor trends evolve amid changing economic conditions.

Understanding these data points provides valuable context for navigating the complexities of the labor market. Whether you are planning your next career move or assessing your business’s hiring strategies, staying informed is key to making proactive decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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28 pips potential profit in 222 seconds on 2 January 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 28 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 2 January 2025.

USDJPY (28 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims: Key Takeaways from the Latest Report

The latest release from the U.S. Department of Labor on unemployment insurance claims, which was embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (Eastern) on January 2, 2025, sheds light on the current labor market conditions as the year begins. The data provides an overview of initial and continued claims, reflecting overall economic trends and providing an indicator of job market stability.

Initial Claims: A Positive Trend

For the week ending December 28, the seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 211,000, marking a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 220,000. This decline in initial claims indicates a promising trend for job seekers and signals a reduction in layoffs and firings.

It is worth noting that the previous week’s claims were adjusted upward by 1,000 from the originally reported 219,000. Despite this revision, the overall decrease in new claims suggests resilience in the labor market.

4-Week Moving Average: Stability in the Trend

The 4-week moving average, a more stable indicator that smooths out weekly volatility, decreased by 3,500 to 223,250. This figure is down from the revised average of 226,750 from the previous week. The modest but steady downward trend in the moving average indicates that the labor market has maintained relative stability over the past month.

Insured Unemployment Rate: Slight Decline

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate for the week ending December 21 fell by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%. This insured unemployment rate measures the proportion of the labor force currently receiving unemployment benefits and is a key indicator of sustained employment levels.

Continued Claims: Encouraging Decrease

The advance number of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment claims—often referred to as "continued claims"—for the week ending December 21 was 1,844,000, reflecting a decrease of 52,000 from the revised figure of 1,896,000 for the previous week. This decrease in continued claims is another positive sign of improving employment prospects.

The previous week’s continued claims were revised downward by 14,000 from 1,910,000 to 1,896,000. Such downward revisions can reflect better-than-expected retention in the workforce and highlight corrections based on updated data.

4-Week Moving Average of Continued Claims

Similarly, the 4-week moving average of continued claims decreased by 6,750 to 1,870,750. This represents a slight improvement from the revised average of 1,877,500 from the previous week. The consistent downward trend over recent weeks further underscores the broader labor market’s ability to absorb job losses and maintain employment growth.

What This Means for the Economy

The latest data on unemployment claims indicates that the job market remains strong despite economic uncertainties. Declining initial and continued claims suggest that layoffs are minimal and that workers who lose their jobs are able to find new employment relatively quickly.

This trend aligns with broader economic indicators that suggest continued growth in the labor market as 2025 begins. While external factors such as inflation and global economic conditions may pose risks, the sustained decrease in unemployment claims points to a healthy job market that supports economic resilience.

Looking Ahead

As the economy moves into the new year, economists and policymakers will closely monitor labor market data to gauge the effects of monetary policies and broader economic shifts. For job seekers, these figures provide a hopeful outlook, indicating that employment opportunities remain abundant.

The next report on unemployment claims will provide further insight into whether this trend continues or shifts. For now, the data shows a labor market that continues to stabilize and strengthen after a year of navigating economic uncertainties.

Stay tuned for future updates as we track key employment trends and what they mean for the broader economy.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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126 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 4 events in December 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 126 pips / ticks profit out of the following 4 events in December 2024. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

December 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance December 2024, please see all releases below.

• US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) (18 pips / 3 December 2024)

• US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) (37 pips / 6 December 2024)

• DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (35 ticks / 12 December 2024)

• FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections (36 pips / 18 December 2024)

Total trading time would have been around 3 minutes! (preparation time not included)

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Navigating Key Economic Releases: December 2024 Insights

December 2024 presents a series of pivotal economic releases that promise to shape the financial markets’ trajectory as we close the year. With markets bracing for volatility, understanding the nuances of these data points is essential for traders and analysts alike. Below, we dissect the key releases: the JOLT survey, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), DOE Natural Gas Storage Report, and the FOMC interest rate decision.

1. US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT)

Release Date: December 3, 2024
Historical Impact: ~18 pips on forex markets

The JOLT survey is a cornerstone in gauging labor market health. In December 2024, market participants will scrutinize job openings, hires, and quits rates. These metrics provide insights into labor demand and employee confidence. High job openings suggest robust demand, whereas elevated quits typically indicate worker confidence in securing alternative employment.

Research Highlights:

• Comparative Trends: With the Fed closely monitoring labor tightness to combat inflation, the JOLT data could hint at wage pressures.

• Sectoral Shifts: Watch for growth in tech, healthcare, and leisure industries, which historically exhibit sensitivity to broader economic conditions.

2. US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls / NFP)

Release Date: December 6, 2024
Historical Impact: ~37 pips on forex markets

The NFP report remains the month’s most anticipated release. Beyond the headline payroll number, traders should evaluate unemployment rates and average hourly earnings. These components often guide monetary policy expectations.

Key Considerations:

• Wage Growth: Accelerating wages could validate concerns of sticky inflation, prompting hawkish Federal Reserve action.

• Sectoral Employment: Look for potential divergences, such as strength in construction and logistics versus weaknesses in retail.

3. DOE Natural Gas Storage Report

Release Date: December 12, 2024
Historical Impact: ~35 ticks on natural gas futures

Seasonal patterns often amplify the significance of the DOE’s natural gas storage report in December. As winter demand peaks, inventory data offers critical supply-demand balance insights.

Market Dynamics:

• Weather Correlations: Cold weather forecasts could exacerbate price volatility if storage draws exceed expectations.

• Production Trends: Monitor domestic production levels and LNG exports, which have increasingly influenced global natural gas prices.

4. FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections

Release Date: December 18, 2024
Historical Impact: ~36 pips on forex markets

The Federal Reserve’s December meeting will be particularly consequential, as it includes updated economic projections. The interest rate decision and accompanying Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will clarify the Fed’s policy direction.

Focus Areas:

• Interest Rate Path: Markets will parse the dot plot to infer future rate trajectories.

• Inflation and Growth Forecasts: Revisions to core PCE inflation and GDP growth forecasts will influence broader sentiment.

• Press Conference Signals: Chair Powell’s commentary could provide vital clues on how the Fed views labor market resilience and inflation trends heading into 2025.

Strategies for Traders

• Pre-Positioning: Historically, markets exhibit caution ahead of these releases. Consider reducing exposure to avoid whipsaws.

• Event-Specific Plays:

  • JOLT and NFP: Focus on USD pairs and bond yields.

  • Natural Gas Storage Report: Trade volatility in natural gas futures and ETFs.

  • FOMC Decision: Watch for broad USD moves and sectoral impacts on equities.

• Cross-Market Analysis: Evaluate correlations between equities, commodities, and forex to anticipate broader market reactions.

Conclusion

December 2024 offers a dense calendar of influential economic data. By closely monitoring these releases and contextualizing them within broader macroeconomic trends, traders and analysts can better navigate the complexities of the financial markets. Staying informed and agile will be key as the year concludes with these impactful events.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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36 pips potential profit in 144 seconds on 18 December 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on FOMC Interest Rate Decision data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 36 pips on FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections data on 18 December 2024.

USDJPY (13 pips)

EURUSD (23 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates and Releases Updated Economic Projections for 2024-2027

Date: December 18, 2024

The Federal Reserve has made headlines today by not only cutting the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a target range of 4.25% to 4.5% but also releasing its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). These projections outline the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) expectations for key economic indicators, including GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation, through 2027.

Key Economic Projections for 2024-2027

The SEP provides a detailed look at the anticipated trajectory of the U.S. economy, offering insight into where the Fed believes things are headed under current policy assumptions. Here’s a breakdown of the highlights:

1. Real GDP Growth

• 2024: Projected to grow by 2.5% (up from 2.0% in the September projection).

• 2025: Growth slows slightly to 2.1%.

• 2026: Expected at 2.0%.

• 2027: Further tapering to 1.9%.

• Longer Run: A sustainable growth rate of 1.8%.

Context: The upward revision in 2024’s GDP projection reflects confidence in the economy’s resilience, despite higher interest rates throughout the year. Growth is anticipated to gradually moderate over the longer term.

2. Unemployment Rate

• 2024: Median projection of 4.2%.

• 2025-2027: Steady at 4.3%.

• Longer Run: Expected to stabilize at 4.2%.

Context: While the labor market is expected to ease slightly, unemployment projections remain historically low, indicating a relatively healthy job market.

3. PCE Inflation (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

• 2024: Projected at 2.4%.

• 2025: Slight increase to 2.5%.

• 2026: Moderates to 2.1%.

• 2027: Aligns with the Fed’s target at 2.0%.

• Longer Run: Stable at 2.0%.

Context: Inflation remains a key concern, but projections suggest the Fed expects to achieve its 2% goal by 2027.

4. Core PCE Inflation (Excluding Food and Energy)

• 2024: 2.8%.

• 2025: Drops to 2.5%.

• 2026: Further down to 2.2%.

• 2027: Aligns with the target at 2.0%.

Context: Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to remain slightly elevated in the near term before converging with the overall inflation target.

5. Federal Funds Rate

• 2024: Projected to end at 4.4%.

• 2025: Declines to 3.9%.

• 2026: Further reduces to 3.4%.

• 2027: Expected to stabilize at 3.1%.

• Longer Run: Settles at 3.0%.

Context: The Fed’s policy path suggests a gradual easing of interest rates over the next few years, reflecting confidence that inflation will continue to cool while supporting economic growth.

What Does This Mean for the Economy?

1. Growth with Stability

The upward revision of 2024 GDP growth indicates the economy is performing better than previously expected. While growth is expected to moderate, it’s not anticipated to stall, suggesting a soft landing rather than a recession.

2. Labor Market Resilience

The projected unemployment rate remains low, indicating that even as the economy adjusts to higher interest rates, the job market is expected to remain resilient. This provides reassurance for workers and consumers.

3. Inflation Under Control

The Fed’s inflation projections suggest confidence that price pressures will continue to ease. Achieving the 2% inflation target by 2027 will be a key milestone for restoring economic stability.

4. Gradual Rate Cuts

With the federal funds rate projected to decline gradually over the next few years, borrowing costs for consumers and businesses are likely to decrease. This could support investments in housing, business expansion, and consumer spending.

Market Reactions and Future Policy

Despite the Fed’s rate cut and optimistic projections, the stock market declined following the announcement. Investors appear to remain wary of lingering uncertainties surrounding the economy, inflation, and future policy adjustments. The market’s reaction underscores concerns about potential risks to growth and the Fed’s ability to navigate these challenges effectively.

Conclusion: A Measured Approach to Monetary Policy

The Fed’s decision to cut rates and its detailed economic projections signal a measured approach to navigating economic uncertainty. The central bank remains committed to fostering maximum employment and price stability while adapting to changing conditions.

As we move into 2025, all eyes will be on inflation trends, labor market conditions, and the Fed’s ongoing policy decisions. For now, today’s actions provide cautious optimism that the U.S. economy can continue to grow while keeping inflation under control, though market sentiment remains cautious.

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20241218a.htm, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20241218.htm

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35 ticks potential profit in 16 seconds on 12 December 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 35 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 12 December 2024.

Natural gas (35 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Analysis for December 6, 2024

Released: December 12, 2024
Next Release: December 19, 2024

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending December 6, 2024. This report provides valuable insights into natural gas inventories across the United States, helping analysts, traders, and policymakers understand supply and demand dynamics during the winter season.

Key Highlights

• Total Working Gas in Storage: 3,747 billion cubic feet (Bcf)

• Net Decrease: 190 Bcf from the previous week’s total of 3,937 Bcf

• Year-Over-Year Comparison: 67 Bcf higher than the same period last year

• Five-Year Average Comparison: 165 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,582 Bcf

At 3,747 Bcf, the current storage levels remain within the five-year historical range, indicating a relatively balanced inventory despite a notable weekly draw.

Summary of Regional Trends

• East Region: The East saw a significant withdrawal of 58 Bcf, bringing current stocks to 856 Bcf. Compared to last year and the five-year average, this is a modest decrease of 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively.

• Midwest Region: The Midwest experienced a 60 Bcf drawdown, reducing storage to 1,055 Bcf. Inventories are 0.8% lower than last year but still 1.9% above the five-year average.

• Mountain Region: Despite a relatively small withdrawal of 7 Bcf, the Mountain region’s storage levels remain robust at 282 Bcf. This represents a 15.6% increase over last year and a 33% increase over the five-year average.

• Pacific Region: The Pacific region saw an 8 Bcf draw, ending the week at 302 Bcf. Stocks are 4.5% higher than a year ago and 11.9% above the five-year average.

• South Central Region: This region had the largest total withdrawal of 59 Bcf, bringing the total to 1,251 Bcf. Salt facilities contributed a 22 Bcf decline, while nonsalt facilities saw a 37 Bcf reduction. Despite the draw, stocks remain 2.4% higher than last year and 3.6% above the five-year average.

Key Insights and Market Implications

1. Seasonal Draws Begin to Ramp Up: With winter demand in full swing, withdrawals are accelerating. The total net decrease of 190 Bcf underscores the increased consumption driven by colder weather.

2. Healthy Inventories: Despite significant weekly draws, storage levels are still above both last year’s figures and the five-year average. This suggests a cushion against potential supply disruptions during peak winter demand.

3. Regional Variations: The Mountain and Pacific regions continue to show robust storage levels compared to historical averages, while the East and Midwest are experiencing tighter supplies.

4. Potential Market Impact: These storage dynamics can influence natural gas prices. Continued draws at this pace may push prices higher, particularly if cold weather persists.

Looking Ahead

The next report, scheduled for December 19, 2024, will provide further insights into how winter demand is impacting natural gas inventories. As we move deeper into the season, monitoring these weekly changes will be critical for assessing market stability and price trends.

Stay tuned for more updates and analysis!

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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37 pips potential profit in 8 seconds on 6 December 2024, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 37 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 6 December 2024.

USDJPY (28 pips)

EURUSD (9 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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November 2024 U.S. Employment Report: Key Takeaways and Insights

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its November 2024 Employment Situation Report, highlighting continued growth in the labor market with some mixed signals. Here’s what you need to know:

Job Growth Surges, Led by Health Care and Leisure Industries

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in November, marking a strong rebound from the previous month's modest gain of 36,000. This growth surpasses the 12-month average increase of 186,000, signaling resilience despite broader economic uncertainties. Key contributors included:

• Health Care (+54,000): Growth was driven by ambulatory health care services (+22,000), home health care (+16,000), hospitals (+19,000), and nursing care facilities (+12,000).

• Leisure and Hospitality (+53,000): Food services and drinking places added the bulk of these jobs (+29,000), reflecting ongoing recovery in service-related industries.

• Government (+33,000): Gains were concentrated in state government employment (+20,000).

• Transportation Equipment Manufacturing (+32,000): The return of workers following strike actions fueled this sector’s rebound.

Unemployment Rate Holds Steady, but Challenges Persist

The unemployment rate remained relatively stable at 4.2%, up from 3.7% a year earlier. There are now 7.1 million unemployed Americans, reflecting ongoing challenges in the labor market recovery. Notable trends include:

• Long-term Unemployment: This group, defined as those jobless for 27 weeks or more, remains elevated at 1.7 million, making up 23.2% of total unemployed.

• Demographic Insights: Unemployment edged up for Black workers to 6.4%, while other major groups, including Whites (3.8%), Asians (3.8%), and Hispanics (5.3%), showed little change.

Labor Force and Participation Trends

The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%, maintaining a narrow range since late 2023. However, the employment-population ratio declined by 0.6 percentage points over the past year, landing at 59.8%. These metrics suggest some stagnation in workforce engagement.

Retail Trade Slumps as Seasonal Hiring Falters

Retail trade lost 28,000 jobs in November, marking a significant divergence from other industries. Losses were particularly sharp in general merchandise retailers (-15,000), though electronics and appliance retailers posted modest gains (+4,000). This decline could reflect shifting consumer patterns and cautious hiring ahead of the holiday season.

Earnings and Work Hours Tick Up

Wage growth continued at a steady pace, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% to $35.61. Over the past year, wages have risen by 4.0%, providing some relief against inflationary pressures. The average workweek for private nonfarm employees edged up to 34.3 hours, a positive indicator of labor demand.

Upward Revisions Reflect Stronger Momentum

Revised data for September and October show that employment gains were 56,000 higher than previously reported. September’s total was adjusted up to 255,000, and October’s figure increased to 36,000.

What It All Means

November’s employment report paints a picture of a labor market balancing growth with persistent challenges:

• Encouraging Sectors: Health care, leisure, and government sectors are driving job creation, reflecting the continued demand for essential services.

• Emerging Concerns: Retail trade losses and elevated long-term unemployment suggest pockets of weakness that merit attention.

• Stable Wages: The steady rise in wages is a positive for workers, though it remains to be seen if this can keep pace with inflation and higher living costs.

As we close out 2024, the labor market appears robust but not without its vulnerabilities. Policymakers, businesses, and job seekers will be closely watching December’s report, due on January 10, 2025, to gauge the economy’s trajectory into the new year.

Stay tuned for more updates on labor market trends and insights!

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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18 pips potential profit in 3 seconds on 3 December 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 18 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 3 December 2024.

USDJPY (15 pips)

EURUSD (3 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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October 2024 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Report: What You Need to Know

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) for October 2024, and the data highlights some key trends in the U.S. labor market. While overall movement was subdued, there were notable shifts in specific sectors and categories. Here's a breakdown of what the numbers tell us about the current state of employment.

1. Job Openings Hold Steady but Show Yearly Decline

On the last business day of October 2024, there were 7.7 million job openings, a figure relatively unchanged from the previous month. However, compared to the same time last year, job openings have declined by 941,000, reflecting a possible cooling in labor demand.

Key changes by sector:

• Increases:

  • Professional and business services: +209,000

  • Accommodation and food services: +162,000

  • Information: +87,000

• Decrease:

  • Federal government: -26,000

The job openings rate remained steady at 4.6%, a potential sign that employers are cautious about expanding their workforce.

2. Hiring Trends: Slight Decline Over the Year

The number of hires remained unchanged at 5.3 million in October but has dropped by 501,000 over the past year. This marks a continued trend of slower hiring. The hires rate also stayed steady at 3.3%, reflecting limited changes in the pace of workforce growth.

Noteworthy sectoral shifts:

• Decline in private educational services: -24,000

3. Separations and Quits: Workers Regaining Confidence?

Total separations, which include quits, layoffs, and other reasons, were little changed at 5.3 million but were down 369,000 compared to last year. The total separations rate has held firm at 3.3% for three consecutive months.

A closer look:

• Quits: Increased to 3.3 million (+228,000 over the month), raising the quits rate to 2.1%. This could indicate growing confidence among workers to leave their jobs for better opportunities.

  • Biggest rise in quits: Accommodation and food services (+90,000)

• Layoffs and Discharges: Stable at 1.6 million (1.0% rate), though retail trade saw an increase (+60,000), while durable goods manufacturing (-37,000) and private educational services (-14,000) declined.

4. Establishment Size Matters

When breaking down the data by establishment size:

• Small businesses (1–9 employees): Saw a decrease in the hires rate.

• Large organizations (5,000+ employees): Little to no change across job openings, hires, quits, and separations, reflecting more stability.

5. September Revisions: Adjustments Reflect New Data

As is common, revisions were made to the September 2024 figures:

• Job openings were revised down by 71,000 to 7.4 million.

• Hires were revised up by 24,000 to 5.6 million.

• Separations remained unchanged at 5.2 million.

  • Notably, quits were revised upward by 27,000, while layoffs and discharges saw a downward revision of 31,000.

What This Means for Employers and Workers

For employers:

• The relatively stable job openings and hiring rates suggest caution in expanding payrolls, despite sectoral variations.

• Industries like accommodation and food services are seeing a surge in quits, potentially signaling challenges in retaining workers.

For workers:

• The uptick in quits indicates a possible increase in confidence, as employees feel more comfortable exploring new opportunities.

• Stable layoffs and discharges suggest a degree of security for most employed individuals.

Looking Ahead

The next JOLTS release, covering November 2024, is scheduled for January 7, 2025. As we head into the new year, it will be important to watch whether these trends hold steady or shift in response to broader economic developments.

Stay tuned for more updates and insights as the labor market continues to evolve.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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85 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 2 events in November 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 85 pips / ticks profit out of the following 2 events in November 2024. The potential performance in 2023 was 13,607 pips / ticks.

November 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance November 2024, please see all releases below.

• US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) (54 pips / 13 November 2024)

• US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) (31 pips / 14 November 2024)

Total trading time would have been around 1 minute! (preparation time not included)

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Understanding October 2024 Inflation Data: Insights from the PPI and CPI Reports

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports for October 2024. Together, these reports provide a comprehensive view of inflationary trends, capturing price changes from the perspectives of producers and consumers. Let’s break down the key findings from each report and explore their implications for businesses, policymakers, and consumers.

October 2024 Producer Price Index (PPI): Inflation from the Production Side

The PPI, which measures price changes at the wholesale level, showed a 0.2% rise in October, signaling steady but moderate inflation in production costs. Over the past 12 months, the final demand index increased by 2.4%, reflecting contained inflationary pressures.

Key Drivers of PPI Changes

1. Final Demand Services:

   • Services prices rose 0.3%, marking a consistent upward trend.

   • Notable increases were seen in transportation and warehousing (+0.5%) and portfolio management services (+3.6%).

   • The rise in service costs highlights challenges for industries reliant on logistics and professional services.

2. Final Demand Goods:

   • Goods prices rose by a modest 0.1%, reversing prior declines.

   • Excluding food and energy, goods prices climbed 0.3%, reflecting strong demand for manufactured products.

   • Noteworthy was an 8.4% jump in carbon steel scrap prices, affecting construction and manufacturing industries.

3. Intermediate Demand:

   • Processed goods for intermediate demand rose 0.5%, while unprocessed goods surged 4.1%—the largest increase since August 2022.

   • A 9.9% spike in crude petroleum prices drove much of the intermediate goods inflation.

Implications of the PPI Trends

• For Businesses: Rising costs in services and intermediate goods could lead to higher production expenses. Companies may need to manage costs or adjust pricing to maintain profitability.

• For Policymakers: Persistent core PPI inflation may influence Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.

• For Consumers: Increased wholesale costs may translate into higher retail prices, particularly in services like travel, healthcare, and retail products.

October 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI): Inflation from the Consumer Side

The CPI, which measures price changes experienced by consumers, increased by 0.2% in October, consistent with the prior three months. Over the past year, the CPI rose 2.6%, slightly accelerating from September’s 2.4%.

Key Drivers of CPI Changes

1. Shelter Costs:

   • Shelter costs rose 0.4% and have increased 4.9% year-over-year.

   • Rent and owners’ equivalent rent were major contributors, reflecting continued pressure in the housing market.

2. Food Prices:

   • The food index edged up 0.2%, a slower pace than September’s 0.4% rise.

   • Prices for cereals, bakery products, and dairy surged by 1.0%, while meat and egg prices declined significantly (-1.2% and -6.4%, respectively).

3. Energy:

   • The energy index remained flat, providing stability after recent declines. Gasoline prices fell 0.9%, but electricity costs rose 1.2%.

4. Core CPI:

   • Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 0.3%.

   • Used cars and trucks (+2.7%), airline fares (+3.2%), and medical care services (+0.4%) were significant contributors.

5. Declines in Other Categories:

   • Apparel prices dropped 1.5%, and communication and household furnishings saw declines, partially offsetting broader price increases.

Implications of the CPI Trends

• For Consumers: Shelter costs remain the primary inflationary burden, while declines in energy prices provide some relief. Food price increases are more modest but uneven across categories.

• For Policymakers: The steady rise in core CPI highlights persistent inflation in non-volatile sectors, which may shape future monetary policy decisions.

What Do These Reports Mean for the Economy?

Both the PPI and CPI reports indicate that inflation is present but manageable, with specific areas driving price increases:

• Businesses: Rising costs in services and core goods could pressure margins, particularly for industries reliant on logistics, professional services, or raw materials like steel.

• Policymakers: While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target, its contained nature might support a cautious approach to rate hikes.

• Consumers: Retail prices are likely to rise in areas linked to higher production costs, such as travel, healthcare, and housing, but energy price stability offers some respite.

Looking Ahead: Key Trends to Monitor

As we move into the final months of 2024, the November inflation reports (due in December) will shed more light on these trends. Key areas to watch include:

1. Service Sector Inflation: Any acceleration here could signal broader price pressures.

2. Intermediate Demand: Rising production costs may translate into retail inflation if trends persist.

3. Energy Prices: Seasonal fluctuations in heating costs and crude oil prices could impact both wholesale and retail inflation.

Final Thoughts

October 2024’s PPI and CPI reports offer a snapshot of an economy navigating steady inflation, with sector-specific pressures shaping the broader picture. By understanding these trends, businesses and consumers can better prepare for potential price changes, while policymakers can fine-tune strategies to maintain economic stability.

Stay tuned for our next update in December, as we continue to track the evolving inflation landscape and its implications for everyday life and economic policy.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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