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US30 154 points and BTC 592 points potential profit in 12 seconds on 14 March 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading US30 and BTC Bitcoin on Michigan Consumer Sentiment

According to our analysis US30 moved 154 points and BTC 592 points on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 14 March 2025.

US30 (154 points)

BTC (592 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Market Sentiment Crashes: What Traders Need to Know

March 2025 has delivered another major blow to consumer sentiment, marking the third consecutive month of decline. According to the preliminary data, the Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 10.5% from February and a staggering 27.1% year-over-year. Economic uncertainty continues to rattle consumers and traders alike, with ripple effects visible across the markets.

Key Takeaways:

  • Consumer sentiment plunged to 57.9, down from 64.7 in February and 79.4 a year ago.

  • Economic expectations deteriorated sharply, with the Index of Consumer Expectations plummeting 15.3% month-over-month and 30.0% year-over-year.

  • Year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 4.9%, up from 4.3% last month, the highest reading since November 2022.

  • Long-run inflation expectations spiked to 3.9%, marking the biggest monthly jump since 1993.

  • Market reactions: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) dropped 154 points, while Bitcoin (BTC) fell 592 points.

Breaking Down the Market Impact

Equities Market: Bearish Momentum Persists

Consumer sentiment is often a leading indicator of market performance, and the latest data suggests continued weakness. The 154-point drop in the Dow underscores mounting concerns about economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures.

Key sectors to watch:

  • Retail & Consumer Goods: With sentiment tumbling, discretionary spending could take a hit. Watch out for bearish trends in companies reliant on consumer confidence, such as major retailers and automakers.

  • Financials: Rising inflation expectations could push interest rates higher, impacting lending and borrowing costs. Banks may see short-term gains but long-term risks.

  • Technology: Growth stocks, particularly those sensitive to interest rate movements, may experience increased volatility.

Crypto Market: BTC’s Decline Reflects Risk Aversion

Bitcoin’s 592-point drop aligns with the broader trend of risk-off sentiment. Higher inflation expectations can lead to more aggressive monetary tightening, reducing liquidity and dampening demand for speculative assets like crypto. Traders should watch for:

  • Support Levels: BTC needs to hold key technical levels to prevent further downside pressure.

  • Macroeconomic Cues: Any hawkish signals from central banks could exacerbate selling pressure.

  • Altcoin Correlations: The broader crypto market tends to follow BTC’s lead, so caution is warranted across the board.

Trading Strategies in a Volatile Environment

Short-Term Plays:

  • Hedge Against Inflation: Consider commodities such as gold and energy stocks, which often perform well in inflationary environments.

  • Short Weak Sectors: Retail, consumer discretionary, and high-growth tech stocks may struggle in the current climate.

  • Play the Volatility: Options strategies like straddles or strangles could be useful given heightened uncertainty.

Long-Term Positioning:

  • Defensive Stocks: Sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples tend to be more resilient during economic downturns.

  • Dividend Payers: Stocks with strong dividend yields can provide stability amidst market turbulence.

  • Crypto Accumulation: If BTC continues to correct, long-term holders might find opportunities to buy on dips.

What’s Next?

The final March sentiment report is set for release on March 28, 2025. Until then, expect continued volatility as traders digest the latest data. The biggest wild card remains policy uncertainty—any shifts in fiscal or monetary policy could further disrupt market stability. Keep a close eye on inflation trends, central bank actions, and earnings reports for guidance on the next moves.

Stay sharp, stay hedged, and trade smart!

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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112 pips, US30 317 points and BTC 2298 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 5 events in February 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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112 pips, US30 317 points and BTC 2298 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 5 events in February 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 112 pips/ticks, US30 317 points and BTC 2298 points profit out of the following 5 events in February 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

February 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance February 2025, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 8 minutes! (preparation time not included)

Key Market Events for February 2025: Impact on Major Assets

Traders are keeping a close eye on key economic events in February 2025, as recent data releases have moved major financial markets, including forex, equities, and cryptocurrencies. Below is a breakdown of significant reports and their impact on various assets.

US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) – 4 February 2025

  • Market Impact:

    • Forex: 15 pips movement recorded.

    • US30: 26-point fluctuation.

  • The JOLTS report provides insight into the US labor market’s health, influencing Federal Reserve policy expectations and overall economic sentiment.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations – 7 February 2025

  • Market Impact:

    • Forex: 14 pips.

    • US30: 144 points.

    • Bitcoin (BTC): 739 points.

  • Consumer sentiment reflects consumer confidence in the economy, while inflation expectations influence market positioning ahead of Federal Reserve decisions. This release significantly impacted risk-sensitive assets, especially BTC and US indices.

USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) – 11 February 2025

  • Market Impact:

    • Agricultural Futures: 40 ticks of movement recorded.

  • WASDE plays a critical role in commodity markets, impacting grain and livestock prices. Traders dealing in agricultural futures actively respond to supply and demand shifts indicated in this report.

US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) – 12 February 2025

  • Market Impact:

    • Forex: 23 pips.

    • US30: 147 points.

    • Bitcoin (BTC): 1279 points.

  • CPI is one of the most anticipated economic indicators, providing insights into inflation trends. Higher inflation data typically fuels expectations of tighter monetary policy, affecting forex, equities, and crypto markets significantly.

US Retail Sales – 14 February 2025

  • Market Impact:

    • Forex: 20 pips.

    • Bitcoin (BTC): 280 points.

  • Retail sales data reflects consumer spending strength, a crucial driver of GDP growth. The market’s reaction underscores its importance in shaping risk appetite across asset classes.

Final Thoughts

Traders should continue monitoring these economic indicators, as they provide valuable insights into market trends and help shape informed trading decisions. Understanding the historical impact of these reports aids in strategy development and risk management.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Aurora, CH1, NY4 and LD4. Free trials.

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40 ticks potential profit on 11 February 2025, analysis on trading corn and wheat futures on USDA WASDE data

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40 ticks potential profit on 11 February 2025, analysis on trading corn and wheat futures on USDA WASDE data

According to our analysis corn (ZC) and wheat (WC) futures prices moved around 40 ticks (24 ticks and 16 ticks) on USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) data on 11 February 2025.

WASDE February 2025: Market Insights for Agricultural Traders

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on February 11, 2025, provides key insights into global agricultural markets. With adjustments in supply, demand, and pricing across major commodities, traders should pay close attention to shifting trends in wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, and livestock.

Wheat Market: Lower Ending Stocks, Price Holds

The U.S. wheat outlook for 2024/25 reflects higher domestic use and lower ending stocks, which fell by 4 million bushels to 794 million. Despite this decline, stocks remain 14% above last year’s levels. The season-average farm price remains unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. Globally, wheat supplies increased slightly due to higher production in Kazakhstan and Argentina. However, world trade declined by 3.0 million tons due to reduced exports from the EU, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. China’s wheat imports were significantly cut to 8.0 million tons—the lowest in five years.

Traders saw wheat futures decline by 16 ticks following the report, likely reflecting expectations of robust U.S. stocks and weaker global trade.

Corn Market: No Change in U.S. Outlook, Lower Global Production

The U.S. corn supply and use outlook remained unchanged this month, but the projected season-average farm price was raised by 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel. Globally, coarse grain production was forecasted 1.8 million tons lower, mainly due to yield losses in Argentina and Brazil caused by heat and dryness. With reduced production and smaller exports from Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa, corn imports for China were also cut. Global ending stocks dropped to 290.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.0 million.

Corn futures fell by 24 ticks, as traders responded to the lowered global production outlook, offset by the lack of significant changes in U.S. supply and demand.

Rice: Rising Imports and Stocks, Price Drops

The U.S. rice market saw increased supplies due to higher imports, with long-grain imports rising while medium- and short-grain imports declined. Domestic use hit a record 166.0 million cwt, while exports fell by 4.0 million cwt. Ending stocks climbed 18% year-over-year to 47.0 million cwt—the highest in a decade. The season-average farm price dropped by $0.20 per cwt to $15.40.

Globally, rice supplies dipped slightly due to a production decline in Sri Lanka, while consumption and trade increased. India’s exports were raised to a near-record 22.0 million tons. Ending stocks fell by 0.5 million tons, mainly due to reductions in India and Sri Lanka.

Soybeans: Lower Global Stocks, U.S. Price Down

While the U.S. soybean balance sheet remained unchanged, the season-average price dropped by 10 cents to $10.10 per bushel. Global soybean production fell, particularly in Argentina and Paraguay, due to persistent heat and dryness. Brazilian production remained at 169.0 million tons, with strong performance in the Center-West offsetting losses in the south. Global soybean ending stocks declined by 4.0 million tons, primarily due to reductions in Argentina and Brazil.

Livestock and Dairy: Production Adjustments and Price Revisions

  • Beef: Increased U.S. production expectations led to higher export forecasts, supported by strong global demand. Cattle prices rose across all quarters.

  • Pork: Production was raised, but exports were lowered due to slower demand in key markets.

  • Poultry: Broiler and turkey production faced downward revisions due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling.

  • Eggs: Lower production forecasts due to HPAI-related flock reductions pushed prices higher.

  • Dairy: Lower milk production forecasts resulted in tighter domestic supplies, while the all-milk price forecast was revised slightly down to $22.60 per cwt.

Cotton: Minimal Adjustments, Lower Farm Price

The U.S. cotton balance sheet saw minor changes, with domestic mill use lowered and ending stocks increased. The season-average upland farm price was reduced to 63.5 cents per pound. Global cotton production rose, largely due to a 1-million-bale increase in China’s crop, while consumption and trade saw nominal changes.

Key Takeaways for Traders:

  • Bearish Corn & Wheat Futures: Declines of 24 and 16 ticks, respectively, indicate market responses to global production trends and stock adjustments.

  • Soybean Prices Under Pressure: Lower global stocks suggest tight supplies, but weaker price action indicates concerns over demand.

  • Rice & Sugar Trends: Higher rice stocks could keep prices under pressure, while sugar market adjustments reflect shifting trade flows.

  • Livestock & Dairy: Price movements across cattle, hogs, and dairy suggest volatility tied to supply constraints and trade dynamics.

Final Thoughts

This WASDE report highlights the importance of monitoring weather-driven production risks, shifting trade flows, and evolving demand trends. With notable changes in global stocks and trade, traders should stay alert to potential market shifts in the coming months.

For those in the agricultural markets, the February 2025 WASDE offers both opportunities and risks. Stay informed, manage your positions wisely, and watch for further developments in weather, policy changes, and global demand trends.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0225.pdf

Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks and yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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20 pips and BTC 280 points potential profit in 218 seconds on 14 Februar 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and BTC on US Retail Sales data

According to our analysis USDJPY and BTC moved 20 pips and 280 points on US Retail Sales data on 14 February 2025.

USDJPY (20 pips)

BTC (280 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Market Reaction: USD/JPY Drops, Bitcoin Rallies After Weak Retail Sales Data

📅 February 14, 2025

The latest U.S. retail sales report has sent ripples through financial markets, causing USD/JPY to drop 20 pips while Bitcoin surged 280 points. With traders reacting swiftly to the data, let’s break down what’s happening and how you can capitalize on the volatility.

📉 USD/JPY Falls 20 Pips – Weak U.S. Data Weighs on Dollar

The U.S. retail and food services sales for January fell 0.9% from December, worse than market expectations. While still up 4.2% YoY, the weaker month-over-month figure has sparked concerns about consumer spending trends.

💡 Market Reaction:

  • The dollar weakened as traders reassess Fed rate cut expectations—a slowdown in retail activity could push the Fed to ease sooner.

  • USD/JPY fell 20 pips as demand for the safe-haven yen increased.

  • U.S. Treasury yields ticked lower, signaling growing expectations of monetary easing.

🚀 Bitcoin Rallies 280 Points – Risk-On Sentiment Creeping Back?

Bitcoin surged 280 points following the report, as traders bet on softer economic data fueling rate cut speculation. With lower rates favoring risk assets, BTC has resumed its upward momentum.

📢 Final Thoughts

Today’s retail sales report has triggered FX and crypto volatility, with USD/JPY sliding and Bitcoin soaring. As traders digest the data, all eyes will be on Fed policy signals and risk sentiment in the coming days.

🚀 What’s your move? Are you shorting USD/JPY or riding the BTC rally? Drop your strategy in the comments!

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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23 pips, US30 147 points and BTC 1279 points potential profit in 32 seconds on 12 February 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 23 pips, US30 moved 147 points and Bitcoin (BTC) moved 1279 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 12 February 2025.

USDJPY (23 pips)

US30 (147 points)

Bitcoin BTC (1279 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

CPI Report Shakes Markets: USD/JPY Gains, US30 Drops, BTC Dips

The January 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a higher-than-expected inflation increase of 0.5% month-over-month, bringing the annual CPI to 3.0%. This data immediately sent ripples through the financial markets, impacting major asset classes, including forex, equities, and crypto.

Key CPI Highlights:

  • Headline CPI: +0.5% (MoM), +3.0% (YoY)

  • Core CPI (Ex-Food & Energy): +0.4% (MoM), +3.3% (YoY)

  • Shelter Costs: +0.4% MoM, a major driver of inflation

  • Energy Index: +1.1% MoM, fueled by a 1.8% increase in gasoline prices

  • Food Index: +0.4% MoM, with food-at-home prices up 0.5%

Market Reaction:

Forex – USD/JPY Rises 23 Pips

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, with USD/JPY climbing 23 pips post-release. This move reflects increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain higher interest rates for longer to combat inflation. The resilience of core CPI above 3.0% further solidifies the Fed’s hawkish stance, making USD more attractive compared to JPY, which remains under the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy.

Equities – US30 Drops 147 Points

Wall Street reacted negatively to the inflation data, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) falling 147 points. Investors are concerned that persistent inflation may delay any potential Fed rate cuts, dampening risk appetite. Additionally, rising costs for shelter and transportation services indicate that consumer spending power could take a hit, affecting corporate earnings.

Crypto – Bitcoin Drops 1,279 Points

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a sharp decline of 1,279 points following the CPI release, reflecting a risk-off sentiment in the broader market. Higher-than-expected inflation led to speculation that Fed policy will remain tight, reducing liquidity for riskier assets like crypto. BTC’s drop also aligns with a broader sell-off in tech and growth stocks, which tend to be more sensitive to interest rate outlooks.

Final Thoughts

Traders should brace for continued volatility as inflation concerns linger. The next major catalyst will be the Fed’s response in upcoming meetings and market reactions to any further economic data releases. Stay alert to potential breakout moves in USD/JPY, US30, and BTC as inflation trends develop.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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217 pips, US30 300 points and BTC 1018 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 5 events in January 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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217 pips, US30 300 points and BTC 1018 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 5 events in January 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 217 pips/ticks, US30 300 points and BTC 1018 points profit out of the following 5 events in January 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

January 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance January 2025, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 10 minutes! (preparation time not included)

January 2025: Key Market Events Recap and Trading Insights

January 2025 saw several critical economic releases that influenced financial markets. Below is a recap of key events and their implications for traders.

1. US Jobless Claims (2 January 2025)

Impact: 28 pips

The jobless claims report indicated labor market resilience with a modest decline in initial claims. This reinforced confidence in the job market and set the tone for early trading trends in the year.

2. US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (7 January 2025)

Impact: 25 pips

The JOLTS report showed steady job openings but a decline in voluntary quits, suggesting cautious worker sentiment. This data played a role in shaping market expectations about economic stability and potential shifts in hiring trends.

3. US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls / NFP) (10 January 2025)

Impact: 35 pips, US30: 210 points

The NFP report exceeded expectations, driving volatility in forex and equity markets. Strong job growth supported risk assets initially, but concerns over inflationary wage pressures created mixed reactions.

4. USDA WASDE / USDA Grain Stocks (10 January 2025)

Impact: 104 ticks

The WASDE and Grain Stocks report revealed shifts in supply-demand dynamics. Lower corn and soybean supplies provided bullish support to agricultural commodities, while rising wheat stocks capped price gains in that sector.

5. US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) (15 January 2025)

Impact: 25 pips, US30: 90 points, BTC: 1018 points

The CPI report showed core inflation cooling slightly, prompting traders to reassess Federal Reserve policy expectations. This led to a decline in Treasury yields, a short-lived rally in equities, and increased volatility in BTC.

Market Reactions and Takeaways:

  • Forex: USD pairs experienced significant swings, with CPI and NFP driving directional moves.

  • Indices: US30 faced volatility but rebounded as markets reassessed Fed policy expectations.

  • Commodities: Corn and soybeans gained on tighter supplies, while wheat remained range-bound due to higher stock levels.

  • Crypto: BTC saw sharp price movements, influenced by shifting inflation expectations and macroeconomic sentiment.

Looking Ahead:

As traders navigate 2025, key areas to watch include ongoing labor market trends, Fed policy decisions, and commodity supply shifts. Staying informed and agile will be crucial in capitalizing on market movements and managing risk effectively.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Aurora, CH1, NY4 and LD4. Free trials.

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14 pips, US30 144 points and BTC 739 points potential profit in 176 seconds on 7 February 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on Michigan Consumer Sentiment

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 14 pips, US30 moved 144 points and BTC 739 points on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 7 February 2025.

USDJPY (7 pips)

EURUSD (7 pips)

US30 (144 points)

BTC (739 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Markets React to Consumer Sentiment Drop: US30 & BTC Decline

The preliminary consumer sentiment data for February 2025 came in lower than expected, triggering a broad risk-off sentiment across financial markets. The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) and Bitcoin (BTC) both moved lower following the release, as traders reacted to rising inflation fears and weakening economic confidence.

Consumer Sentiment Declines for a Second Month

The Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 67.8, marking a 4.6% decline from January and an 11.8% drop year-over-year. This drop represents the lowest level since July 2024 and reflects growing concerns over economic conditions, inflation, and future expectations.

The Current Economic Conditions index fell even further, down 7.2% month-over-month and 13.5% from last year, showing that consumers are increasingly cautious about spending. Meanwhile, the Index of Consumer Expectations declined 2.9% month-over-month and 10.5% year-over-year, signaling growing pessimism about the future economic landscape.

Market Reaction: US30 (Dow) Pulls Back

US equities, particularly the Dow Jones (US30), reacted negatively to the report. With consumer sentiment weakening, concerns over slowing economic growth and the impact of tariffs on durable goods purchases added downward pressure on stocks.

  • Buying conditions for durable goods fell by 12%, reinforcing concerns that consumer demand may weaken.

  • Inflation expectations jumped from 3.3% to 4.3%, raising fears that the Federal Reserve might have to keep interest rates higher for longer.

  • The market had been pricing in potential rate cuts later in the year, but rising inflation expectations complicate that outlook, leading to a sell-off in equities.

Bitcoin (BTC) Also Takes a Hit

Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against inflation, has struggled to find bullish momentum in this environment. BTC dropped in tandem with equities, signaling that risk-off sentiment has spilled over into the crypto market.

  • Rising inflation concerns can sometimes benefit Bitcoin as a hedge, but if interest rates stay high for longer, it diminishes the appeal of speculative assets like BTC.

  • A decline in consumer sentiment and economic confidence could lead to reduced liquidity in financial markets, limiting Bitcoin’s upside in the short term.

  • Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range, and this sentiment-driven dip could push prices toward key support levels.

Looking Ahead: Key Levels to Watch

With final February consumer sentiment data set to be released on February 21, traders will be closely watching whether the trend worsens or stabilizes. Additionally, any new comments from the Federal Reserve on inflation expectations and interest rates will heavily influence market direction.

Conclusion: A Cautious Trading Environment

The sharp drop in consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations have created uncertainty for both traditional and crypto markets. As traders assess the evolving macroeconomic landscape, volatility is likely to remain high. Risk management will be crucial in the coming weeks as markets digest incoming economic data and central bank policy signals.

For now, sentiment remains fragile, and traders should stay alert to any further deterioration in economic indicators that could fuel additional downside pressure in both US30 and BTC.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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15 pips and US30 26 points potential profit in 26 seconds on 4 February 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 15 pips and US30 moved 26 points on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 4 February 2025.

USDJPY (9 pips)

EURUSD (6 pips)

US30 (26 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Job Openings and Labor Turnover: What Traders Need to Know

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) offers key insights into the U.S. labor market for December 2024. With job openings declining, hiring slowing, and layoffs rising in certain sectors, traders should closely analyze these trends to anticipate market movements.

Key Takeaways for Traders

1. Job Openings Drop to 7.6 Million

  • December saw a decrease of 556,000 job openings, bringing the total to 7.6 million.

  • This marks a 1.3 million decline over the year, indicating a cooling labor market.

  • Sectors Hit Hardest:

    • Professional and business services (-225,000)

    • Healthcare and social assistance (-180,000)

    • Finance and insurance (-136,000)

  • Sector Showing Growth:

    • Arts, entertainment, and recreation (+65,000)

  • Trader Insight: A declining job openings rate (now at 4.5%) suggests economic slowdown, which could weigh on consumer spending and corporate earnings.

2. Hiring Activity Remains Weak

  • The number of hires in December remained flat at 5.5 million, down 325,000 year-over-year.

  • Hiring in finance and insurance increased by 48,000, which may indicate resilience in this sector.

  • Trader Insight: Weak hiring points to softening corporate growth and potential downward pressure on equities, particularly in sectors with job losses.

3. Separations: Layoffs vs. Quits

  • Total separations (quits, layoffs, discharges) held steady at 5.3 million.

  • Quits Rate:

    • 2.0% (unchanged)

    • Total quits fell by 242,000 YoY, showing reduced worker confidence.

    • Quits declined in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-42,000), suggesting slowing activity in logistics.

  • Layoffs & Discharges:

    • Increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+87,000).

    • Increased in mining and logging (+6,000).

  • Trader Insight: Rising layoffs in transportation and warehousing could signal slowing global trade, negatively impacting companies in shipping, logistics, and e-commerce.

Market Implications

Equities:

  • Bearish: Sectors seeing major job losses (finance, healthcare, business services) may face weaker earnings.

  • Bullish: Companies in entertainment and recreation show hiring growth, suggesting some resilience in consumer discretionary spending.

Fixed Income:

  • A softening labor market could lead to increased Federal Reserve dovishness, supporting lower bond yields and a rally in Treasuries.

FX Markets:

  • Dollar Weakness? A weakening job market might prompt a less aggressive Fed, potentially denting USD strength.

  • Safe Haven Flows: If economic slowdown fears grow, expect flows into JPY and CHF.

Commodities:

  • Oil Impact: Increased layoffs in transportation and logistics suggest potential demand weakness, which could weigh on crude prices.

  • Gold Strength: Rising economic uncertainty may drive safe-haven demand for gold.

Looking Ahead: January 2025 Report

The next JOLTS report (January 2025) will be released on March 11, 2025. Traders should monitor labor market trends alongside inflation data, GDP growth, and Fed policy shifts for a broader market outlook.

Bottom Line: A cooling labor market is a warning signal for traders. Weaker hiring, falling job openings, and increasing layoffs point to slower economic growth—a potential headwind for risk assets. Stay ahead by adjusting strategies accordingly!

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

Start futures #forex fx news #trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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25 pips, US30 90 points and BTC 1018 points potential profit in 40 seconds on 15 January 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY, EURUSD on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 54 pips, US30 moved 90 points and Bitcoin (BTC) moved 1018 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 15 January 2025.

USDJPY (18 pips)

EURUSD (7 pips)

US30 (90 points)

Bitcoin BTC (1018 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

December 2024 CPI Report: Core Inflation Falls Short of Expectations – What It Means for Markets

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2024 on January 15, 2025. While headline inflation was in line with expectations, core inflation (excluding food and energy) came in slightly cooler than anticipated. The headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, meeting forecasts. However, core CPI increased by 0.2% month-over-month (vs. 0.3% expected) and 3.2% year-over-year (vs. 3.3% expected). Here’s a breakdown of the report and its implications for traders.

Headline Takeaways

  1. Headline Inflation: The all-items index rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, reflecting steady inflationary pressures in energy and food prices.

  2. Core Inflation Misses: Core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, below the forecasted 0.3%. Year-over-year, core inflation moderated to 3.2%, also below the expected 3.3%.

  3. Energy Drives the Headline: Energy prices surged 2.6% month-over-month, with gasoline prices jumping 4.4%, making energy a key driver of the overall CPI increase.

  4. Food Inflation Holds Steady: Food prices rose 0.3% month-over-month, with both food at home and food away from home contributing equally to the increase.

Market Implications of Core CPI Miss

Cooling Core Inflation Trends

  • The 0.2% month-over-month rise in core CPI marked a modest cooling from the expected 0.3%. Year-over-year, the 3.2% core inflation rate signals gradual easing in underlying price pressures.

  • Market Impact: A softer-than-expected core reading could prompt markets to reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, increasing the likelihood of a pause or easing cycle sooner than previously anticipated.

Energy Price Surge Shifts Focus

  • Energy prices rose significantly, with a 4.4% increase in gasoline prices dominating the report. However, on a year-over-year basis, energy remains a deflationary factor, down 0.5%.

  • Market Impact: Energy-driven headline inflation may not alter the Fed’s trajectory if core inflation continues to cool, but it could buoy commodity markets and inflation-sensitive sectors.

Sector Breakdown

Shelter Remains Elevated

  • Shelter costs rose 0.3% month-over-month and 4.6% year-over-year. Shelter remains the largest contributor to core inflation but showed signs of stabilization.

  • Implications for Traders: Persistent shelter inflation could limit the Fed’s flexibility, supporting higher-for-longer interest rate expectations.

Food Prices Steady but Mixed

  • Food at home (+0.3%) and food away from home (+0.3%) rose in tandem. Cereals and bakery products saw a sharp rise (+1.2%), while nonalcoholic beverages (-0.4%) and fruits and vegetables (-0.1%) declined.

  • Market Impact: Stable food inflation supports consumer purchasing power, benefiting consumer discretionary stocks.

Transportation and Autos Drive Core

  • Used cars and trucks rebounded with a 1.2% increase, while new vehicles rose 0.5%. Airline fares surged 3.9%.

  • Implications for Traders: Rising auto and transportation costs could impact consumer sentiment and provide short-term tailwinds to related industries.

Fed Policy Implications

With core CPI coming in below expectations, markets may interpret the data as a sign that inflation is moderating toward the Federal Reserve’s target. While headline inflation remains steady, the softer core reading could shift the Fed’s tone toward a more dovish stance, especially if cooling trends persist.

Trading Opportunities

  1. Equities: Growth stocks and rate-sensitive sectors may gain on expectations of a dovish Fed. Defensive sectors may face headwinds if inflation pressures ease.

  2. Bonds: Treasury yields could decline, particularly on the shorter end of the curve, as markets price in reduced rate hike probabilities.

  3. Commodities: Energy markets may rally due to the sharp increase in gasoline and natural gas prices. Gold could see gains if inflation expectations moderate.

  4. Forex: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) might weaken if traders anticipate a softer Fed policy path.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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473 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 12 events in the fourth quarter of 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

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473 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 12 events in the fourth quarter of 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 473 pips/ticks profit out of the following 12 events in the fourth quarter of 2024 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2024 was 4,305 pips/ticks.

Q4 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance Q4 2024, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 8 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)

Quarterly Market Outlook: Navigating Key Economic Events for Traders

As traders, staying ahead of impactful economic events is crucial to identifying opportunities and managing risk effectively. Each quarter, a series of reports and announcements can significantly influence market sentiment and price movements. In this post, we will break down the most notable economic events from October to December 2024 and their implications, helping you prepare your strategy for the months ahead.

October 2024: Key Economic Events

US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls - NFP)

Date: October 4, 2024
Market Impact: 126 pips

The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a critical indicator of the US labor market’s health. In October, this report had a substantial impact of 126 pips, underscoring how deviations from expectations can trigger significant price swings, particularly in USD-related pairs. Traders often see the NFP as a catalyst for both short-term volatility and longer-term trend formation.

Trading Tip: Implement a volatility-based strategy by setting tighter stops and wider profit targets. Be cautious of whipsaw movements and consider using trailing stops.

US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey

Date: October 17, 2024
Market Impact: 47 pips

Retail sales reflect consumer spending patterns, making this report an essential measure of economic momentum. Coupled with weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing data, this cluster of reports provides a comprehensive snapshot of economic activity.

Trading Tip: Look for correlations between the retail sales trend and currency pairs tied to consumer-driven economies. Divergence between retail sales and jobless claims could present arbitrage opportunities.

US Jobless Claims

Date: October 24, 2024
Market Impact: 24 pips

Weekly jobless claims are often overlooked but can indicate turning points in employment trends. This particular report caused a 24-pip movement, highlighting its capacity to affect sentiment during periods of heightened market sensitivity.

DOE Natural Gas Storage Report

Date: October 24, 2024
Market Impact: 34 ticks

Natural gas traders closely monitor the Department of Energy (DOE) storage report, which provides insights into supply and demand dynamics. In October, this report moved the market by 34 ticks, reflecting energy market volatility.

Trading Tip: Consider layering positions during periods of extreme weather forecasts, which can amplify the impact of the DOE report.

November 2024: Inflation in Focus

US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Date: November 13, 2024
Market Impact: 54 pips

Inflation data, particularly the CPI, is a key driver of monetary policy expectations. The 54-pip reaction to November’s CPI report demonstrates the market’s sensitivity to inflation surprises.

Trading Tip: Monitor Federal Reserve commentary leading up to the CPI release. A CPI print above expectations can increase the probability of a hawkish Fed response, pushing yields and the dollar higher.

US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI)

Date: November 14, 2024
Market Impact: 31 pips

The PPI, which tracks inflation at the wholesale level, often acts as a leading indicator for consumer inflation. In November, the PPI report moved the markets by 31 pips.

Trading Tip: Keep an eye on sectors with significant input costs, as they may show early signs of pricing pressures that trickle down to CPI readings.

December 2024: Fed Policy and Employment Insights

US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

Dates: October 29 and December 3, 2024
Market Impact: 15 pips (October) and 18 pips (December)

JOLTS data provides valuable information about labor demand and job openings. While the market impact in pips may seem moderate, JOLTS data plays a key role in shaping expectations for future employment trends.

US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls - NFP)

Date: December 6, 2024
Market Impact: 37 pips

The December NFP report triggered a 37-pip movement, reflecting sustained interest in employment data as a driver of market sentiment.

Trading Tip: Watch for revisions to previous NFP reports, as they can influence market reactions just as much as the current headline figure.

DOE Natural Gas Storage Report

Date: December 12, 2024
Market Impact: 35 ticks

Another DOE natural gas report in December reinforced the energy market’s sensitivity to storage changes.

FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections

Date: December 18, 2024
Market Impact: 36 pips

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December is typically a pivotal event as it includes updated economic projections and the interest rate decision. The 36-pip market reaction indicates the influence of policy adjustments and forward guidance on forex markets.

Trading Tip: Prepare for increased volatility during the press conference following the FOMC statement. Focus on any changes to the "dot plot" and projections for future rate hikes or cuts.

Final Thoughts

Understanding the significance of key economic events can empower traders to navigate market volatility with greater confidence. By analyzing historical market reactions and staying attuned to the context of each report, traders can better anticipate potential price movements and tailor their strategies accordingly. Keep your economic calendar updated and remain disciplined in managing risk during these high-impact events. As always, stay informed, stay prepared, and trade wisely.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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