40 ticks potential profit on 11 February 2025, analysis on trading corn and wheat futures on USDA WASDE data

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40 ticks potential profit on 11 February 2025, analysis on trading corn and wheat futures on USDA WASDE data

According to our analysis corn (ZC) and wheat (WC) futures prices moved around 40 ticks (24 ticks and 16 ticks) on USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) data on 11 February 2025.

WASDE February 2025: Market Insights for Agricultural Traders

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on February 11, 2025, provides key insights into global agricultural markets. With adjustments in supply, demand, and pricing across major commodities, traders should pay close attention to shifting trends in wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, and livestock.

Wheat Market: Lower Ending Stocks, Price Holds

The U.S. wheat outlook for 2024/25 reflects higher domestic use and lower ending stocks, which fell by 4 million bushels to 794 million. Despite this decline, stocks remain 14% above last year’s levels. The season-average farm price remains unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. Globally, wheat supplies increased slightly due to higher production in Kazakhstan and Argentina. However, world trade declined by 3.0 million tons due to reduced exports from the EU, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. China’s wheat imports were significantly cut to 8.0 million tons—the lowest in five years.

Traders saw wheat futures decline by 16 ticks following the report, likely reflecting expectations of robust U.S. stocks and weaker global trade.

Corn Market: No Change in U.S. Outlook, Lower Global Production

The U.S. corn supply and use outlook remained unchanged this month, but the projected season-average farm price was raised by 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel. Globally, coarse grain production was forecasted 1.8 million tons lower, mainly due to yield losses in Argentina and Brazil caused by heat and dryness. With reduced production and smaller exports from Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa, corn imports for China were also cut. Global ending stocks dropped to 290.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.0 million.

Corn futures fell by 24 ticks, as traders responded to the lowered global production outlook, offset by the lack of significant changes in U.S. supply and demand.

Rice: Rising Imports and Stocks, Price Drops

The U.S. rice market saw increased supplies due to higher imports, with long-grain imports rising while medium- and short-grain imports declined. Domestic use hit a record 166.0 million cwt, while exports fell by 4.0 million cwt. Ending stocks climbed 18% year-over-year to 47.0 million cwt—the highest in a decade. The season-average farm price dropped by $0.20 per cwt to $15.40.

Globally, rice supplies dipped slightly due to a production decline in Sri Lanka, while consumption and trade increased. India’s exports were raised to a near-record 22.0 million tons. Ending stocks fell by 0.5 million tons, mainly due to reductions in India and Sri Lanka.

Soybeans: Lower Global Stocks, U.S. Price Down

While the U.S. soybean balance sheet remained unchanged, the season-average price dropped by 10 cents to $10.10 per bushel. Global soybean production fell, particularly in Argentina and Paraguay, due to persistent heat and dryness. Brazilian production remained at 169.0 million tons, with strong performance in the Center-West offsetting losses in the south. Global soybean ending stocks declined by 4.0 million tons, primarily due to reductions in Argentina and Brazil.

Livestock and Dairy: Production Adjustments and Price Revisions

  • Beef: Increased U.S. production expectations led to higher export forecasts, supported by strong global demand. Cattle prices rose across all quarters.

  • Pork: Production was raised, but exports were lowered due to slower demand in key markets.

  • Poultry: Broiler and turkey production faced downward revisions due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling.

  • Eggs: Lower production forecasts due to HPAI-related flock reductions pushed prices higher.

  • Dairy: Lower milk production forecasts resulted in tighter domestic supplies, while the all-milk price forecast was revised slightly down to $22.60 per cwt.

Cotton: Minimal Adjustments, Lower Farm Price

The U.S. cotton balance sheet saw minor changes, with domestic mill use lowered and ending stocks increased. The season-average upland farm price was reduced to 63.5 cents per pound. Global cotton production rose, largely due to a 1-million-bale increase in China’s crop, while consumption and trade saw nominal changes.

Key Takeaways for Traders:

  • Bearish Corn & Wheat Futures: Declines of 24 and 16 ticks, respectively, indicate market responses to global production trends and stock adjustments.

  • Soybean Prices Under Pressure: Lower global stocks suggest tight supplies, but weaker price action indicates concerns over demand.

  • Rice & Sugar Trends: Higher rice stocks could keep prices under pressure, while sugar market adjustments reflect shifting trade flows.

  • Livestock & Dairy: Price movements across cattle, hogs, and dairy suggest volatility tied to supply constraints and trade dynamics.

Final Thoughts

This WASDE report highlights the importance of monitoring weather-driven production risks, shifting trade flows, and evolving demand trends. With notable changes in global stocks and trade, traders should stay alert to potential market shifts in the coming months.

For those in the agricultural markets, the February 2025 WASDE offers both opportunities and risks. Stay informed, manage your positions wisely, and watch for further developments in weather, policy changes, and global demand trends.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0225.pdf

Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks and yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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20 pips and BTC 280 points potential profit in 218 seconds on 14 Februar 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and BTC on US Retail Sales data

According to our analysis USDJPY and BTC moved 20 pips and 280 points on US Retail Sales data on 14 February 2025.

USDJPY (20 pips)

BTC (280 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Market Reaction: USD/JPY Drops, Bitcoin Rallies After Weak Retail Sales Data

📅 February 14, 2025

The latest U.S. retail sales report has sent ripples through financial markets, causing USD/JPY to drop 20 pips while Bitcoin surged 280 points. With traders reacting swiftly to the data, let’s break down what’s happening and how you can capitalize on the volatility.

📉 USD/JPY Falls 20 Pips – Weak U.S. Data Weighs on Dollar

The U.S. retail and food services sales for January fell 0.9% from December, worse than market expectations. While still up 4.2% YoY, the weaker month-over-month figure has sparked concerns about consumer spending trends.

💡 Market Reaction:

  • The dollar weakened as traders reassess Fed rate cut expectations—a slowdown in retail activity could push the Fed to ease sooner.

  • USD/JPY fell 20 pips as demand for the safe-haven yen increased.

  • U.S. Treasury yields ticked lower, signaling growing expectations of monetary easing.

🚀 Bitcoin Rallies 280 Points – Risk-On Sentiment Creeping Back?

Bitcoin surged 280 points following the report, as traders bet on softer economic data fueling rate cut speculation. With lower rates favoring risk assets, BTC has resumed its upward momentum.

📢 Final Thoughts

Today’s retail sales report has triggered FX and crypto volatility, with USD/JPY sliding and Bitcoin soaring. As traders digest the data, all eyes will be on Fed policy signals and risk sentiment in the coming days.

🚀 What’s your move? Are you shorting USD/JPY or riding the BTC rally? Drop your strategy in the comments!

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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23 pips, US30 147 points and BTC 1279 points potential profit in 32 seconds on 12 February 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 23 pips, US30 moved 147 points and Bitcoin (BTC) moved 1279 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 12 February 2025.

USDJPY (23 pips)

US30 (147 points)

Bitcoin BTC (1279 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

CPI Report Shakes Markets: USD/JPY Gains, US30 Drops, BTC Dips

The January 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a higher-than-expected inflation increase of 0.5% month-over-month, bringing the annual CPI to 3.0%. This data immediately sent ripples through the financial markets, impacting major asset classes, including forex, equities, and crypto.

Key CPI Highlights:

  • Headline CPI: +0.5% (MoM), +3.0% (YoY)

  • Core CPI (Ex-Food & Energy): +0.4% (MoM), +3.3% (YoY)

  • Shelter Costs: +0.4% MoM, a major driver of inflation

  • Energy Index: +1.1% MoM, fueled by a 1.8% increase in gasoline prices

  • Food Index: +0.4% MoM, with food-at-home prices up 0.5%

Market Reaction:

Forex – USD/JPY Rises 23 Pips

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, with USD/JPY climbing 23 pips post-release. This move reflects increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain higher interest rates for longer to combat inflation. The resilience of core CPI above 3.0% further solidifies the Fed’s hawkish stance, making USD more attractive compared to JPY, which remains under the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy.

Equities – US30 Drops 147 Points

Wall Street reacted negatively to the inflation data, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) falling 147 points. Investors are concerned that persistent inflation may delay any potential Fed rate cuts, dampening risk appetite. Additionally, rising costs for shelter and transportation services indicate that consumer spending power could take a hit, affecting corporate earnings.

Crypto – Bitcoin Drops 1,279 Points

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a sharp decline of 1,279 points following the CPI release, reflecting a risk-off sentiment in the broader market. Higher-than-expected inflation led to speculation that Fed policy will remain tight, reducing liquidity for riskier assets like crypto. BTC’s drop also aligns with a broader sell-off in tech and growth stocks, which tend to be more sensitive to interest rate outlooks.

Final Thoughts

Traders should brace for continued volatility as inflation concerns linger. The next major catalyst will be the Fed’s response in upcoming meetings and market reactions to any further economic data releases. Stay alert to potential breakout moves in USD/JPY, US30, and BTC as inflation trends develop.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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217 pips, US30 300 points and BTC 1018 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 5 events in January 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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217 pips, US30 300 points and BTC 1018 points potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 5 events in January 2025 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 217 pips/ticks, US30 300 points and BTC 1018 points profit out of the following 5 events in January 2025. The potential performance in 2024 was 4,305 pips / ticks.

January 2025

Cumulative potential, indicative performance January 2025, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 10 minutes! (preparation time not included)

January 2025: Key Market Events Recap and Trading Insights

January 2025 saw several critical economic releases that influenced financial markets. Below is a recap of key events and their implications for traders.

1. US Jobless Claims (2 January 2025)

Impact: 28 pips

The jobless claims report indicated labor market resilience with a modest decline in initial claims. This reinforced confidence in the job market and set the tone for early trading trends in the year.

2. US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (7 January 2025)

Impact: 25 pips

The JOLTS report showed steady job openings but a decline in voluntary quits, suggesting cautious worker sentiment. This data played a role in shaping market expectations about economic stability and potential shifts in hiring trends.

3. US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls / NFP) (10 January 2025)

Impact: 35 pips, US30: 210 points

The NFP report exceeded expectations, driving volatility in forex and equity markets. Strong job growth supported risk assets initially, but concerns over inflationary wage pressures created mixed reactions.

4. USDA WASDE / USDA Grain Stocks (10 January 2025)

Impact: 104 ticks

The WASDE and Grain Stocks report revealed shifts in supply-demand dynamics. Lower corn and soybean supplies provided bullish support to agricultural commodities, while rising wheat stocks capped price gains in that sector.

5. US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) (15 January 2025)

Impact: 25 pips, US30: 90 points, BTC: 1018 points

The CPI report showed core inflation cooling slightly, prompting traders to reassess Federal Reserve policy expectations. This led to a decline in Treasury yields, a short-lived rally in equities, and increased volatility in BTC.

Market Reactions and Takeaways:

  • Forex: USD pairs experienced significant swings, with CPI and NFP driving directional moves.

  • Indices: US30 faced volatility but rebounded as markets reassessed Fed policy expectations.

  • Commodities: Corn and soybeans gained on tighter supplies, while wheat remained range-bound due to higher stock levels.

  • Crypto: BTC saw sharp price movements, influenced by shifting inflation expectations and macroeconomic sentiment.

Looking Ahead:

As traders navigate 2025, key areas to watch include ongoing labor market trends, Fed policy decisions, and commodity supply shifts. Staying informed and agile will be crucial in capitalizing on market movements and managing risk effectively.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Aurora, CH1, NY4 and LD4. Free trials.

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14 pips, US30 144 points and BTC 739 points potential profit in 176 seconds on 7 February 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on Michigan Consumer Sentiment

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 14 pips, US30 moved 144 points and BTC 739 points on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 7 February 2025.

USDJPY (7 pips)

EURUSD (7 pips)

US30 (144 points)

BTC (739 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Markets React to Consumer Sentiment Drop: US30 & BTC Decline

The preliminary consumer sentiment data for February 2025 came in lower than expected, triggering a broad risk-off sentiment across financial markets. The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) and Bitcoin (BTC) both moved lower following the release, as traders reacted to rising inflation fears and weakening economic confidence.

Consumer Sentiment Declines for a Second Month

The Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 67.8, marking a 4.6% decline from January and an 11.8% drop year-over-year. This drop represents the lowest level since July 2024 and reflects growing concerns over economic conditions, inflation, and future expectations.

The Current Economic Conditions index fell even further, down 7.2% month-over-month and 13.5% from last year, showing that consumers are increasingly cautious about spending. Meanwhile, the Index of Consumer Expectations declined 2.9% month-over-month and 10.5% year-over-year, signaling growing pessimism about the future economic landscape.

Market Reaction: US30 (Dow) Pulls Back

US equities, particularly the Dow Jones (US30), reacted negatively to the report. With consumer sentiment weakening, concerns over slowing economic growth and the impact of tariffs on durable goods purchases added downward pressure on stocks.

  • Buying conditions for durable goods fell by 12%, reinforcing concerns that consumer demand may weaken.

  • Inflation expectations jumped from 3.3% to 4.3%, raising fears that the Federal Reserve might have to keep interest rates higher for longer.

  • The market had been pricing in potential rate cuts later in the year, but rising inflation expectations complicate that outlook, leading to a sell-off in equities.

Bitcoin (BTC) Also Takes a Hit

Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against inflation, has struggled to find bullish momentum in this environment. BTC dropped in tandem with equities, signaling that risk-off sentiment has spilled over into the crypto market.

  • Rising inflation concerns can sometimes benefit Bitcoin as a hedge, but if interest rates stay high for longer, it diminishes the appeal of speculative assets like BTC.

  • A decline in consumer sentiment and economic confidence could lead to reduced liquidity in financial markets, limiting Bitcoin’s upside in the short term.

  • Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range, and this sentiment-driven dip could push prices toward key support levels.

Looking Ahead: Key Levels to Watch

With final February consumer sentiment data set to be released on February 21, traders will be closely watching whether the trend worsens or stabilizes. Additionally, any new comments from the Federal Reserve on inflation expectations and interest rates will heavily influence market direction.

Conclusion: A Cautious Trading Environment

The sharp drop in consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations have created uncertainty for both traditional and crypto markets. As traders assess the evolving macroeconomic landscape, volatility is likely to remain high. Risk management will be crucial in the coming weeks as markets digest incoming economic data and central bank policy signals.

For now, sentiment remains fragile, and traders should stay alert to any further deterioration in economic indicators that could fuel additional downside pressure in both US30 and BTC.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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15 pips and US30 26 points potential profit in 26 seconds on 4 February 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 15 pips and US30 moved 26 points on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 4 February 2025.

USDJPY (9 pips)

EURUSD (6 pips)

US30 (26 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Job Openings and Labor Turnover: What Traders Need to Know

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) offers key insights into the U.S. labor market for December 2024. With job openings declining, hiring slowing, and layoffs rising in certain sectors, traders should closely analyze these trends to anticipate market movements.

Key Takeaways for Traders

1. Job Openings Drop to 7.6 Million

  • December saw a decrease of 556,000 job openings, bringing the total to 7.6 million.

  • This marks a 1.3 million decline over the year, indicating a cooling labor market.

  • Sectors Hit Hardest:

    • Professional and business services (-225,000)

    • Healthcare and social assistance (-180,000)

    • Finance and insurance (-136,000)

  • Sector Showing Growth:

    • Arts, entertainment, and recreation (+65,000)

  • Trader Insight: A declining job openings rate (now at 4.5%) suggests economic slowdown, which could weigh on consumer spending and corporate earnings.

2. Hiring Activity Remains Weak

  • The number of hires in December remained flat at 5.5 million, down 325,000 year-over-year.

  • Hiring in finance and insurance increased by 48,000, which may indicate resilience in this sector.

  • Trader Insight: Weak hiring points to softening corporate growth and potential downward pressure on equities, particularly in sectors with job losses.

3. Separations: Layoffs vs. Quits

  • Total separations (quits, layoffs, discharges) held steady at 5.3 million.

  • Quits Rate:

    • 2.0% (unchanged)

    • Total quits fell by 242,000 YoY, showing reduced worker confidence.

    • Quits declined in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-42,000), suggesting slowing activity in logistics.

  • Layoffs & Discharges:

    • Increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+87,000).

    • Increased in mining and logging (+6,000).

  • Trader Insight: Rising layoffs in transportation and warehousing could signal slowing global trade, negatively impacting companies in shipping, logistics, and e-commerce.

Market Implications

Equities:

  • Bearish: Sectors seeing major job losses (finance, healthcare, business services) may face weaker earnings.

  • Bullish: Companies in entertainment and recreation show hiring growth, suggesting some resilience in consumer discretionary spending.

Fixed Income:

  • A softening labor market could lead to increased Federal Reserve dovishness, supporting lower bond yields and a rally in Treasuries.

FX Markets:

  • Dollar Weakness? A weakening job market might prompt a less aggressive Fed, potentially denting USD strength.

  • Safe Haven Flows: If economic slowdown fears grow, expect flows into JPY and CHF.

Commodities:

  • Oil Impact: Increased layoffs in transportation and logistics suggest potential demand weakness, which could weigh on crude prices.

  • Gold Strength: Rising economic uncertainty may drive safe-haven demand for gold.

Looking Ahead: January 2025 Report

The next JOLTS report (January 2025) will be released on March 11, 2025. Traders should monitor labor market trends alongside inflation data, GDP growth, and Fed policy shifts for a broader market outlook.

Bottom Line: A cooling labor market is a warning signal for traders. Weaker hiring, falling job openings, and increasing layoffs point to slower economic growth—a potential headwind for risk assets. Stay ahead by adjusting strategies accordingly!

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

Start futures #forex fx news #trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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25 pips, US30 90 points and BTC 1018 points potential profit in 40 seconds on 15 January 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY, EURUSD on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 54 pips, US30 moved 90 points and Bitcoin (BTC) moved 1018 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 15 January 2025.

USDJPY (18 pips)

EURUSD (7 pips)

US30 (90 points)

Bitcoin BTC (1018 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

December 2024 CPI Report: Core Inflation Falls Short of Expectations – What It Means for Markets

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2024 on January 15, 2025. While headline inflation was in line with expectations, core inflation (excluding food and energy) came in slightly cooler than anticipated. The headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, meeting forecasts. However, core CPI increased by 0.2% month-over-month (vs. 0.3% expected) and 3.2% year-over-year (vs. 3.3% expected). Here’s a breakdown of the report and its implications for traders.

Headline Takeaways

  1. Headline Inflation: The all-items index rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, reflecting steady inflationary pressures in energy and food prices.

  2. Core Inflation Misses: Core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, below the forecasted 0.3%. Year-over-year, core inflation moderated to 3.2%, also below the expected 3.3%.

  3. Energy Drives the Headline: Energy prices surged 2.6% month-over-month, with gasoline prices jumping 4.4%, making energy a key driver of the overall CPI increase.

  4. Food Inflation Holds Steady: Food prices rose 0.3% month-over-month, with both food at home and food away from home contributing equally to the increase.

Market Implications of Core CPI Miss

Cooling Core Inflation Trends

  • The 0.2% month-over-month rise in core CPI marked a modest cooling from the expected 0.3%. Year-over-year, the 3.2% core inflation rate signals gradual easing in underlying price pressures.

  • Market Impact: A softer-than-expected core reading could prompt markets to reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, increasing the likelihood of a pause or easing cycle sooner than previously anticipated.

Energy Price Surge Shifts Focus

  • Energy prices rose significantly, with a 4.4% increase in gasoline prices dominating the report. However, on a year-over-year basis, energy remains a deflationary factor, down 0.5%.

  • Market Impact: Energy-driven headline inflation may not alter the Fed’s trajectory if core inflation continues to cool, but it could buoy commodity markets and inflation-sensitive sectors.

Sector Breakdown

Shelter Remains Elevated

  • Shelter costs rose 0.3% month-over-month and 4.6% year-over-year. Shelter remains the largest contributor to core inflation but showed signs of stabilization.

  • Implications for Traders: Persistent shelter inflation could limit the Fed’s flexibility, supporting higher-for-longer interest rate expectations.

Food Prices Steady but Mixed

  • Food at home (+0.3%) and food away from home (+0.3%) rose in tandem. Cereals and bakery products saw a sharp rise (+1.2%), while nonalcoholic beverages (-0.4%) and fruits and vegetables (-0.1%) declined.

  • Market Impact: Stable food inflation supports consumer purchasing power, benefiting consumer discretionary stocks.

Transportation and Autos Drive Core

  • Used cars and trucks rebounded with a 1.2% increase, while new vehicles rose 0.5%. Airline fares surged 3.9%.

  • Implications for Traders: Rising auto and transportation costs could impact consumer sentiment and provide short-term tailwinds to related industries.

Fed Policy Implications

With core CPI coming in below expectations, markets may interpret the data as a sign that inflation is moderating toward the Federal Reserve’s target. While headline inflation remains steady, the softer core reading could shift the Fed’s tone toward a more dovish stance, especially if cooling trends persist.

Trading Opportunities

  1. Equities: Growth stocks and rate-sensitive sectors may gain on expectations of a dovish Fed. Defensive sectors may face headwinds if inflation pressures ease.

  2. Bonds: Treasury yields could decline, particularly on the shorter end of the curve, as markets price in reduced rate hike probabilities.

  3. Commodities: Energy markets may rally due to the sharp increase in gasoline and natural gas prices. Gold could see gains if inflation expectations moderate.

  4. Forex: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) might weaken if traders anticipate a softer Fed policy path.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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473 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 12 events in the fourth quarter of 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

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473 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 12 events in the fourth quarter of 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 473 pips/ticks profit out of the following 12 events in the fourth quarter of 2024 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2024 was 4,305 pips/ticks.

Q4 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance Q4 2024, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 8 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)

Quarterly Market Outlook: Navigating Key Economic Events for Traders

As traders, staying ahead of impactful economic events is crucial to identifying opportunities and managing risk effectively. Each quarter, a series of reports and announcements can significantly influence market sentiment and price movements. In this post, we will break down the most notable economic events from October to December 2024 and their implications, helping you prepare your strategy for the months ahead.

October 2024: Key Economic Events

US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls - NFP)

Date: October 4, 2024
Market Impact: 126 pips

The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a critical indicator of the US labor market’s health. In October, this report had a substantial impact of 126 pips, underscoring how deviations from expectations can trigger significant price swings, particularly in USD-related pairs. Traders often see the NFP as a catalyst for both short-term volatility and longer-term trend formation.

Trading Tip: Implement a volatility-based strategy by setting tighter stops and wider profit targets. Be cautious of whipsaw movements and consider using trailing stops.

US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey

Date: October 17, 2024
Market Impact: 47 pips

Retail sales reflect consumer spending patterns, making this report an essential measure of economic momentum. Coupled with weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing data, this cluster of reports provides a comprehensive snapshot of economic activity.

Trading Tip: Look for correlations between the retail sales trend and currency pairs tied to consumer-driven economies. Divergence between retail sales and jobless claims could present arbitrage opportunities.

US Jobless Claims

Date: October 24, 2024
Market Impact: 24 pips

Weekly jobless claims are often overlooked but can indicate turning points in employment trends. This particular report caused a 24-pip movement, highlighting its capacity to affect sentiment during periods of heightened market sensitivity.

DOE Natural Gas Storage Report

Date: October 24, 2024
Market Impact: 34 ticks

Natural gas traders closely monitor the Department of Energy (DOE) storage report, which provides insights into supply and demand dynamics. In October, this report moved the market by 34 ticks, reflecting energy market volatility.

Trading Tip: Consider layering positions during periods of extreme weather forecasts, which can amplify the impact of the DOE report.

November 2024: Inflation in Focus

US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Date: November 13, 2024
Market Impact: 54 pips

Inflation data, particularly the CPI, is a key driver of monetary policy expectations. The 54-pip reaction to November’s CPI report demonstrates the market’s sensitivity to inflation surprises.

Trading Tip: Monitor Federal Reserve commentary leading up to the CPI release. A CPI print above expectations can increase the probability of a hawkish Fed response, pushing yields and the dollar higher.

US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI)

Date: November 14, 2024
Market Impact: 31 pips

The PPI, which tracks inflation at the wholesale level, often acts as a leading indicator for consumer inflation. In November, the PPI report moved the markets by 31 pips.

Trading Tip: Keep an eye on sectors with significant input costs, as they may show early signs of pricing pressures that trickle down to CPI readings.

December 2024: Fed Policy and Employment Insights

US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

Dates: October 29 and December 3, 2024
Market Impact: 15 pips (October) and 18 pips (December)

JOLTS data provides valuable information about labor demand and job openings. While the market impact in pips may seem moderate, JOLTS data plays a key role in shaping expectations for future employment trends.

US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls - NFP)

Date: December 6, 2024
Market Impact: 37 pips

The December NFP report triggered a 37-pip movement, reflecting sustained interest in employment data as a driver of market sentiment.

Trading Tip: Watch for revisions to previous NFP reports, as they can influence market reactions just as much as the current headline figure.

DOE Natural Gas Storage Report

Date: December 12, 2024
Market Impact: 35 ticks

Another DOE natural gas report in December reinforced the energy market’s sensitivity to storage changes.

FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections

Date: December 18, 2024
Market Impact: 36 pips

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December is typically a pivotal event as it includes updated economic projections and the interest rate decision. The 36-pip market reaction indicates the influence of policy adjustments and forward guidance on forex markets.

Trading Tip: Prepare for increased volatility during the press conference following the FOMC statement. Focus on any changes to the "dot plot" and projections for future rate hikes or cuts.

Final Thoughts

Understanding the significance of key economic events can empower traders to navigate market volatility with greater confidence. By analyzing historical market reactions and staying attuned to the context of each report, traders can better anticipate potential price movements and tailor their strategies accordingly. Keep your economic calendar updated and remain disciplined in managing risk during these high-impact events. As always, stay informed, stay prepared, and trade wisely.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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104 ticks potential profit on 10 January 2025, analysis on trading soybeans, corn and wheat futures on USDA WASDE and USDA Grain Stocks data

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104 ticks potential profit on 10 January 2025, analysis on trading soybeans, corn and wheat futures on USDA WASDE and USDA Grain Stocks data

According to our analysis soybeans (ZS), corn (ZC) and wheat (WC) futures prices moved around 104 ticks (36 ticks, 40 ticks and 28 ticks) on USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) and USDA Grain Stocks data on 10 January 2025.

Soybeans (36 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

January 2025 WASDE and Grain Stocks Report: Key Takeaways for Agricultural Traders

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE - 656) and Grain Stocks Report released on January 10, 2025 provide a comprehensive update on the supply, demand, and stock levels for key commodities. For traders, these reports offer essential insights into potential price movements and market dynamics in the months ahead.

Below is a detailed breakdown of the key highlights for cotton, corn, soybeans, and wheat, covering both U.S. and global markets.

1. Cotton: Bearish Signals from Higher Stocks and Lower Prices

  • U.S. Cotton Outlook:

    • Production: Increased by 159,000 bales to 14.4 million bales, driven by higher yields (836 pounds/harvested acre) despite reduced harvested area in the Southwest.

    • Exports: Lowered by 300,000 bales to 11.0 million bales.

    • Ending Stocks: Increased to 4.8 million bales, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to 38%.

    • Farm Price: Reduced to 65 cents per pound, reflecting ample supply and reduced export demand.

  • Global Cotton Market:

    • Production: Raised by 2 million bales to 119.4 million bales, primarily due to a 1.8 million-bale increase in China.

    • Consumption: Increased by 100,000 bales, driven by Bangladesh and Vietnam.

    • Trade: Global exports are up 225,000 bales, as gains in Brazil, Australia, and India offset the reduction in U.S. exports.

    • Ending Stocks: Increased by 1.9 million bales, with notable increases in China, Australia, and India.

💡 Trading Takeaway:
The cotton market presents bearish signals as higher global production and U.S. export cuts weigh on prices. Traders should monitor Southeast Asian demand closely and assess the potential impact of China’s stockpiling strategy.

2. Corn: Tighter Supplies Signal Price Support

U.S. Corn Outlook (WASDE):

  • Production: Cut to 14.9 billion bushels (-276 million bushels), reflecting a yield reduction to 179.3 bushels/acre (-3.8 bushels/acre).

  • Use:

    • Feed & Residual: Reduced by 50 million bushels to 5.8 billion bushels, due to lower-than-expected feed demand.

    • Exports: Lowered by 25 million bushels to 2.5 billion bushels.

  • Ending Stocks: Reduced by 198 million bushels to 1.88 billion bushels.

  • Farm Price: Increased to $4.25 per bushel (+$0.15), reflecting tighter supplies.

Grain Stocks Report (Corn):

  • Total Corn Stocks (Dec 1, 2024): 12.1 billion bushels (-1% year-over-year).

    • On-Farm Stocks: 7.66 billion bushels (-2%).

    • Off-Farm Stocks: 4.41 billion bushels (+2%).

  • Disappearance (Sep-Nov 2024): 4.56 billion bushels, slightly above the 4.53 billion bushels reported for the same period in 2023.

Global Corn Market:

  • Production: Lowered by 4.8 million tons to 1.494 billion tons, though China’s record harvest (294.9 million tons) offsets some global losses.

  • Trade: Global exports declined due to reductions in U.S. and Brazilian shipments.

  • Ending Stocks: Lowered by 3.1 million tons to 293.3 million tons, with China increasing its reserves to a record level.

💡 Trading Takeaway:
Corn prices could remain firm due to tightening U.S. supplies and strong domestic feed demand. The market will closely watch Brazil’s export pace and China’s reserve strategy as key determinants of price direction.

3. Soybeans: Higher Stocks with Strong Seasonal Demand

Grain Stocks Report (Soybeans):

  • Total Soybean Stocks (Dec 1, 2024): 3.10 billion bushels (+3% year-over-year).

    • On-Farm Stocks: 1.54 billion bushels (+6%).

    • Off-Farm Stocks: 1.56 billion bushels (+1%).

  • Disappearance (Sep-Nov 2024): 1.61 billion bushels, up 13% from the same period in 2023, reflecting stronger seasonal demand.

U.S. Soybean Outlook (WASDE):

While soybeans were not specifically highlighted in the WASDE production changes, the robust disappearance from the Grain Stocks Report signals sustained demand, especially for exports and domestic processing.

💡 Trading Takeaway:
The combination of rising stocks and strong disappearance could lead to price fluctuations. Traders should closely watch South American harvest updates and any geopolitical developments that could influence export markets.

4. Wheat: Rising Stocks Amid Strong Demand

U.S. Wheat Outlook (WASDE):

  • Supplies: Increased by 5 million bushels to 130 million bushels, driven by higher imports of Hard Red Spring wheat.

  • Domestic Use:

    • Feed & Residual Use: Unchanged at 120 million bushels.

    • Seed Use: Increased by 2 million bushels to 64 million bushels.

  • Exports: Steady at 850 million bushels despite by-class adjustments.

  • Ending Stocks: Raised by 3 million bushels to 798 million bushels (+15% year-over-year).

  • Farm Price: Reduced by $0.05 to $5.55 per bushel.

Grain Stocks Report (Wheat):

  • Total Wheat Stocks (Dec 1, 2024): 1.57 billion bushels (+10% year-over-year).

    • On-Farm Stocks: 467 million bushels (+16%).

    • Off-Farm Stocks: 1.10 billion bushels (+8%).

  • Disappearance (Sep-Nov 2024): 423 million bushels, up 22% from the same period in 2023, reflecting robust demand.

Global Wheat Market:

  • Supplies: Raised by 0.4 million tons to 1,060.7 million tons, with gains in Syria and Pakistan offsetting reductions in Uruguay.

  • Consumption: Lowered by 0.6 million tons, with Turkey’s demand decrease partially offset by increased usage in Ukraine.

  • Trade: Global exports are down 1.7 million tons due to reduced shipments from Russia and Ukraine.

  • Ending Stocks: Increased by 0.9 million tons to 258.8 million tons, with increases in Russia, Brazil, and Ukraine offsetting declines in China and Indonesia.

💡 Trading Takeaway:
The wheat market remains mixed. While U.S. imports and global stocks are rising, strong domestic demand and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region could continue to influence prices. Traders should watch for export developments and changes in demand from key buyers like Turkey and China.

Key Summary for Traders:

Commodity     U.S. Supply Trend     Global Supply Trend     Market Sentiment    
Cotton Higher stocks Rising global production Bearish
Corn Lower production Slight stock decline Bullish
Soybeans Higher stocks Strong demand Mixed
Wheat Increased imports Higher global stocks Mixed

Final Thoughts:

Agricultural markets are bracing for potential price volatility as the WASDE and Grain Stocks reports highlight key supply and demand shifts. Key areas to watch include:

  1. Cotton: Price pressure remains due to higher global production and reduced U.S. exports.

  2. Corn: Tighter U.S. supplies and robust feed demand could support prices.

  3. Soybeans: Despite higher stocks, strong seasonal demand may limit bearish movements.

  4. Wheat: Strong demand contrasts with rising stocks, creating a mixed outlook sensitive to geopolitical risks.

Traders should remain alert to any new developments, particularly weather conditions in South America, policy changes in China, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, as these could significantly impact commodity prices in the coming months.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0125.pdf, https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/xg94hp534/5d86qt759/xp68nc84m/grst0125.pdf

Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks and yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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35 pips and 210 points potential profit in 80 seconds on 10 January 2025, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US30 on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY, EURUSD and US30 moved around 35 pips and 210 points on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 10 January 2025.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (16 pips)

US30 (210 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

December 2024 Employment Report: Key Takeaways for Traders

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its December 2024 Employment Situation Report today, revealing a mixed but largely positive labor market. Here’s what traders need to know and how the data could influence markets in the near term.

Key Highlights of the Report

  • Nonfarm Payroll Growth:
    Nonfarm payrolls increased by 256,000, beating market expectations. Gains were led by health care, government, social assistance, and retail trade.

  • Unemployment Rate:
    The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market despite concerns of potential softening.

  • Wage Growth:
    Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month (+10 cents), bringing the annual wage growth to 3.9% year-over-year.

  • Labor Force Participation Rate:
    Unchanged at 62.5%, maintaining the same range seen throughout 2024.

Market Implications

1. Equity Markets:

  • Bullish Signal: The robust payroll growth could support cyclical sectors like retail, health care, and consumer discretionary.

  • Earnings Potential: With strong wage gains and improved retail hiring, markets may see positive sentiment heading into Q1 earnings season.

  • Caveat: If wage growth accelerates beyond expectations in future reports, it could reignite inflation fears.

2. Bond Markets:

  • The steady unemployment rate and solid job gains could increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady. However, continued strength may push yields higher if investors price in a more hawkish Fed stance.

3. Forex Market:

  • The U.S. dollar may strengthen in response to better-than-expected job numbers, as it reinforces confidence in the U.S. economy.

  • Watch for USD pairs, particularly with currencies of economies that are experiencing slower labor market recoveries.

Sector Breakdown for December 2024

  • Health Care (+46,000 jobs): Gains were seen across home health care services (+15,000), nursing care facilities (+14,000), and hospitals (+12,000). This continued sector strength may benefit health care ETFs and equities.

  • Retail Trade (+43,000 jobs): A recovery from November’s losses was driven by increases in apparel, general merchandise, and health and personal care stores. Retail-focused traders may view this as a sign of resilient consumer demand.

  • Government (+33,000 jobs): Job gains, primarily in state government roles, continued a positive trend, though at a slower pace than in 2023.

  • Social Assistance (+23,000 jobs): Continued steady growth here supports the broader theme of demand for care services.

Wage and Workweek Trends

  • Average Hourly Earnings: Up $0.10 to $35.69 (+3.9% YoY).

  • Production and Nonsupervisory Workers: Wages increased by $0.06 to $30.62, signaling continued earnings momentum for middle-income workers.

However, the average workweek remained at 34.3 hours, unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, indicating stable labor utilization across sectors.

Revisions and Seasonal Adjustments

The revisions for October and November combined resulted in a net downward adjustment of 8,000 jobs. Traders should take note of these recalibrations, which may indicate some volatility in reporting but largely point to a stable employment trend.

Key Risks to Watch

  • Fed Policy: Traders should monitor any commentary from Federal Reserve officials, as this report keeps the door open for either policy stability or future tightening if wage pressures persist.

  • Economic Slowdown Concerns: While the labor market remains strong, longer-term concerns about a potential slowdown in consumer spending or corporate hiring could affect future payroll reports.

  • Global Market Sentiment: The forex and commodity markets could be impacted by how global investors interpret the U.S. labor market’s strength relative to international economic conditions.

Conclusion

The December 2024 employment report reinforces the narrative of a robust U.S. labor market with healthy job creation, stable unemployment, and moderate wage growth. Traders should position themselves for potential equity market gains in cyclical sectors while keeping a close eye on bond yields and the Federal Reserve's evolving stance. The next employment report, scheduled for February 7, 2025, will provide further clues as to whether this momentum can continue into the new year.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Start forex fx futures news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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