161 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 3 events in September 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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161 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 3 events in September 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 161 pips / ticks profit out of the following 3 events in September 2024. The potential performance in 2023 was 13,607 pips / ticks.

September 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance September 2024, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 3 minutes! (preparation time not included)

September 2024 Economic Recap: Labor, Inflation, and the Fed's First Rate Cut

September 2024 saw a series of pivotal economic data releases and a significant policy shift from the Federal Reserve that sent ripples through markets. Three key events—Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Interest Rate Decision—shed light on the current state of the U.S. economy, labor market, inflation, and monetary policy.

1. JOLTS Report – 4 September 2024

The JOLTS report for August revealed that job openings climbed to 8.04 million, reflecting a still-tight labor market. Despite economic uncertainties and ongoing monetary tightening, labor demand remains robust. This rise in job openings, from 7.7 million in July, suggests employers are continuing to hire, although higher wages might be contributing to persistent inflationary pressures. The tight labor market complicates the Federal Reserve's task of reducing inflation, as wage growth can fuel further price increases. The report's strong labor demand triggered a notable 72-pip movement in the market, signaling investor concerns about prolonged inflation and the Fed's response.

2. CPI Report – 11 September 2024

Inflation remained a focal point in September. The CPI data for August showed that inflation ticked up to 3.7% year-over-year, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) coming in at 4.2%. Energy prices, particularly gasoline, played a significant role in driving the overall increase, but inflation in housing and services continued to persist. This month-over-month rise of 0.2% matched July's figure and reinforced the idea that inflation remains sticky. Although the CPI report didn’t cause significant market turmoil (just a 27-pip reaction), it confirmed that the inflationary landscape still warrants the Federal Reserve’s attention.

3. FOMC Interest Rate Decision – 18 September 2024

In the most significant economic move of the month, the FOMC announced a 50 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% - 5.00%. This marked the first rate cut since the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening campaign began in 2022 to combat high inflation. Despite the cut, the central bank signaled a cautious stance, indicating that it would not rush into further cuts unless inflation showed clearer signs of easing toward the Fed’s 2% target. This decision was a response to slower economic growth and modest improvements in inflation but also acknowledged the risks of premature policy easing. The cut triggered a 62-pip reaction, as investors recalibrated their expectations for future rate cuts, with some projecting more reductions in the coming months.

What’s Next?

The combination of a resilient labor market, persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s cautious but responsive policy shift signals a period of continued uncertainty. The Fed’s next steps will heavily depend on how inflation evolves in the coming months. The JOLTS data suggests that labor market tightness will continue to drive wage growth, potentially making it harder to rein in inflation. The CPI report shows that while inflation is slowing, it’s still not at the level the Fed desires. The rate cut may provide some relief to borrowers, but the Fed remains committed to its dual mandate of full employment and price stability.

Investors and market participants will closely watch upcoming data, particularly for signs of labor market softening and further inflation moderation, which will influence the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory into 2025.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Aurora, CH1, NY4 and LD4. Free trials.

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Join Our Team: Data Analyst Role for Economics Professionals

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Join Our Team: Data Analyst Role for Economics Professionals

Location: Sliema, Malta
Job Type: Full-Time
Experience: 3+ Years
Education: Master’s Degree in Economics (or equivalent)

We are leaders in providing ultra-low latency, machine-readable news feeds for professionals in the financial sector. Our platform is designed to give traders and investors access to macro-economic and commodity data faster than the competition, offering actionable insights for high-frequency trading and manual decision-making. We specialize in covering data from key global markets, including the U.S., Canada, and Europe, and our news feeds consistently outperform by milliseconds, ensuring that our clients can stay ahead of market movements.

Key Responsibilities:

  • Analyze and interpret macro-economic and commodity data from various global sources to drive decision-making processes

  • Collaborate with cross-functional teams to develop new data-driven solutions

  • Utilize large datasets to create predictive models and support the improvement of our data offerings

  • Develop comprehensive reports and visualizations using advanced data analysis techniques

  • Conduct market trend analyses and provide insights into economic movements to support our machine-readable feeds

  • Monitor and optimize real-time data processing and latency for financial market applications

Requirements:

  • Master’s degree in Economics (or equivalent)

  • Proficiency in tools like Excel, SQL, and statistical software

  • Strong understanding of macro-economic principles and their impact on financial markets

  • Excellent problem-solving skills and the ability to work with large, complex datasets

  • Strong communication skills, with an ability to present complex data in a clear and actionable way

  • Business English proficiency required for professional correspondence, meetings, and documentation

Nice to Have:

  • Experience in data analysis, preferably in financial or trading environments

  • Experience with Python or shell scripting to streamline and automate data processing

  • Familiarity with low-latency data environments, particularly in financial markets

  • Experience in developing dashboards with visualization tools

  • Understanding of financial market data sources such as USDA reports, BLS data, and others used in high-frequency trading

What We Offer:

  • Competitive salary and comprehensive benefits package

  • Work in a cutting-edge data-driven environment with opportunities for professional growth

  • Collaborate with a team of experts in finance, economics, and data science

  • Play a key role in shaping the future of real-time data analytics in the financial industry

How to Apply:

Please submit your resume and a cover letter explaining your experience and fit for this role to info@haawks.com by 15th October 2024.

Haawks is committed to fostering innovation and providing our clients with the fastest and most accurate data available. Join our team and help us revolutionize financial data products!

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62 pips potential profit in 46 seconds on 18 September 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on FOMC Interest Rate Decision data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 62 pips on FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Projections data on 18 September 2024.

USDJPY (47 pips)

EURUSD (15 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Update: September 18, 2024 - A Closer Look at Economic Projections and Policy Adjustments

On September 18, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its latest projections and made an important adjustment to the federal funds rate. These changes reflect the committee’s ongoing efforts to navigate a complex economic landscape while balancing its dual mandate—promoting maximum employment and stabilizing inflation around its 2% target.

Summary of Economic Projections

The FOMC's summary of economic projections provides a window into the future, outlining expectations for key economic indicators such as real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the federal funds rate through 2027. Here's a breakdown of the main highlights:

1. Real GDP Growth

  • 2024-2027 Forecast: The median real GDP growth is expected to remain steady at 2.0% each year from 2024 through 2027. The longer-run projection sits slightly lower at 1.8%.

  • Comparison to June Projections: The September projections show slight moderation compared to the June meeting, where 2024's GDP growth was expected to hit 2.1%.

  • Key Takeaway: Despite some fluctuations earlier in the year, growth is expected to stabilize, reflecting resilience in the broader economy, even as global and domestic challenges persist.

2. Unemployment Rate

  • 2024-2027 Forecast: The unemployment rate is projected to hover around 4.4% in 2024 and 2025, gradually falling to 4.2% by 2027. The longer-run forecast stabilizes at 4.2%.

  • Comparison to June Projections: This is an upward revision from June’s projection of 4.0% for 2024, signaling a softer labor market.

  • Key Takeaway: While job gains have slowed and unemployment has edged up slightly, it remains low by historical standards, indicating a robust labor market.

3. Inflation (PCE and Core PCE)

  • 2024-2027 Forecast: Headline PCE inflation is expected to be 2.3% in 2024, gradually tapering to 2.0% by 2026 and beyond. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, is projected to fall from 2.6% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2026 and remain there.

  • Comparison to June Projections: The September report reveals a more optimistic outlook for inflation, with PCE and core PCE projections slightly lower than June.

  • Key Takeaway: Inflation has made significant progress toward the Fed’s 2% target, signaling that the Fed's tightening policies are having the desired effect.

4. Federal Funds Rate

  • 2024-2027 Forecast: The FOMC projects a median federal funds rate of 4.4% for 2024, falling to 3.4% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. The longer-run forecast stands at 2.9%.

  • Key Takeaway: After aggressive rate hikes in 2023, the Fed is signaling a more accommodative policy stance in the coming years as inflation moderates.

Monetary Policy Update: Rate Cut Announced

In a noteworthy move, the FOMC decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage points, bringing it down to 4.75%–5.00%. This is the first rate cut since the aggressive rate hikes began in response to pandemic-related inflation surges. The committee cited progress on inflation and balanced risks as reasons for the decision.

Why Now?

  • Progress on Inflation: The FOMC expressed greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target, allowing room for easing. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated, and the Fed remains cautious.

  • Economic Activity: While job gains have slowed and unemployment has increased slightly, economic activity is still expanding at a solid pace. This balance supports a more gradual easing in monetary policy.

  • Balanced Risks: The FOMC acknowledged that the economic outlook remains uncertain, but the risks to achieving its goals of full employment and stable prices are now seen as more balanced.

Dissenting View

Michelle W. Bowman, one of the committee members, voted against the 0.5% rate cut, preferring a more cautious reduction of 0.25 percentage points. This reflects some lingering concerns about inflationary pressures and the need to stay vigilant.

Looking Ahead

The FOMC's projections suggest that the U.S. economy is on a stable path, with inflation gradually cooling and the labor market remaining resilient despite slight upticks in the unemployment rate. As inflation continues to converge toward the 2% target, the Fed is likely to maintain a cautious but flexible approach, carefully assessing incoming data to adjust its policy as necessary.

While today’s rate cut marks a shift toward a more accommodative policy stance, the committee remains committed to balancing its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. The path of future rate adjustments will depend on evolving economic conditions, particularly inflationary trends and labor market dynamics.

As always, we’ll keep a close watch on future FOMC meetings and their implications for the economy, businesses, and consumers alike.

Stay tuned for more updates as the economic outlook continues to evolve!

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240918a.htm, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20240918.htm

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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27 pips potential profit in 7 seconds on 11 September 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 27 pips on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 11 September 2024.

USDJPY (17 pips)

EURUSD (10 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Understanding the Latest CPI Data: Key Takeaways from August 2024

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2024 reveals subtle yet important trends in the U.S. economy. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose by 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, maintaining the same rate of increase as observed in July. Over the past 12 months, the index recorded a 2.5 percent increase before seasonal adjustments, marking a relatively modest inflationary trend compared to previous years.

Breakdown of CPI Components:

  • Shelter: The cost of shelter continued to be a significant driver of the overall index, rising by 0.5 percent in August, thus contributing majorly to the broader index's movement.

  • Food: Food prices saw a slight increase of 0.1 percent, with food away from home experiencing a higher rise of 0.3 percent compared to food at home, which remained unchanged.

  • Energy: Contrasting these increases, the energy index fell by 0.8 percent, influenced by a significant drop in gasoline and fuel oil prices.

Year-over-Year Analysis:

  • General Index: The all-items index increased by 2.5 percent over the year, the smallest 12-month rise since February 2021, indicating a cooling period after higher inflation rates experienced in recent years.

  • Core Inflation: Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation was up by 3.2 percent year-over-year, suggesting underlying pressures remain despite the overall stabilization of the index.

  • Specific Categories: Noteworthy annual increases were seen in shelter (5.2 percent), while energy commodities experienced sharp declines, particularly gasoline and fuel oil, highlighting the fluctuating nature of energy markets.

Sector-Specific Insights:

  • Transportation: Airline fares notably increased by 3.9 percent in August after months of decline, likely reflecting seasonal travel adjustments and broader economic activities.

  • Medical and Apparel: Both sectors saw modest increases, indicating varied consumer spending behaviors across different areas.

Forward-Looking Implications:

The CPI data not only serves as a gauge of past and current economic conditions but also provides insights into potential future trends. The steadiness in core inflation suggests that while the economy faces inflationary pressures, they may be becoming more entrenched at a moderate level. This has implications for monetary policy, as policymakers must balance stimulating economic growth with preventing runaway inflation.

Consumer Impact:

For consumers, understanding the CPI is crucial as it affects everyday decision-making regarding spending, saving, and investing. The variations in food, energy, and housing costs directly impact budgeting and financial planning.

Conclusion:

As we look forward to the CPI data for September 2024, scheduled for release in October, stakeholders from policymakers to consumers should consider the nuanced changes in the CPI components. Staying informed will be key to navigating the economic landscape, which remains dynamic amid varying inflationary pressures.

Inflation continues to be a critical economic indicator that demands close monitoring. For those planning budgets or investments, keeping an eye on these trends can provide essential insights into timing and strategy adjustments necessary to safeguard financial health in an ever-changing economic environment.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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259 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 4 events in August 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

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259 pips potential forex fx futures news trading profit from 4 events in August 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable data feed

According to our analysis there was a potential of 259 pips / ticks profit out of the following 4 events in August 2024. The potential performance in 2023 was 13,607 pips / ticks.

August 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance August 2024, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 4 minutes! (preparation time not included)

Title: Key Economic Indicators and Market Movements in August 2024

As we move through the second half of 2024, several critical economic reports have significantly impacted the financial markets. In this blog post, we'll break down the market reactions to some of the most influential U.S. economic indicators released in August 2024: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Retail Sales, the Department of Energy (DOE) Natural Gas Storage Report, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Understanding these reports and their impact on the markets can provide valuable insights for traders, investors, and anyone interested in the economic landscape.

1. US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls - NFP)

Release Date: August 2, 2024
Market Movement: 90 pips

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for August 2024 showed weaker-than-expected job growth, causing a significant market reaction with a movement of 90 pips. The NFP is a crucial indicator of economic health, as it measures the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding farm workers.

The weaker NFP numbers indicated that the U.S. labor market might be losing momentum, which raised concerns about a potential slowdown in economic growth. In response to the disappointing employment data, the U.S. dollar weakened as traders and investors speculated that the Federal Reserve might adopt a more dovish stance in its monetary policy to support the economy. A weaker dollar often results from expectations of lower interest rates or increased economic stimulus, as these measures can reduce the currency's appeal to investors.

This market reaction underscores the sensitivity of the financial markets to employment data, as it directly impacts expectations for future economic performance and monetary policy.

2. US Retail Sales

Release Date: August 15, 2024
Market Movement: 84 pips

Retail sales figures for August 2024 also exceeded market expectations, triggering an 84-pip move in the currency markets. Retail sales are a direct reflection of consumer spending, which is a significant component of the U.S. economy.

The strong retail sales data indicated that consumers remained confident and willing to spend despite rising interest rates and inflationary pressures. This boosted market sentiment, further supporting the dollar and increasing speculation around continued economic resilience. For investors, these figures suggest a thriving consumer sector, which is vital for economic expansion.

3. DOE Natural Gas Storage Report

Release Date: August 15, 2024
Market Movement: 38 ticks

On the same day as the retail sales report, the Department of Energy released its Natural Gas Storage Report, which saw a movement of 38 ticks. This report provides insight into the supply and demand dynamics of natural gas, a critical energy commodity.

The report showed a smaller-than-expected build in natural gas inventories, which suggested higher-than-anticipated demand or lower production levels. This tighter supply outlook caused natural gas prices to rise, with immediate effects seen in the commodity markets. Traders who monitor energy commodities closely often react quickly to these storage reports, adjusting their positions based on the perceived supply-demand balance.

4. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Release Date: August 29, 2024
Market Movement: 47 pips

The GDP report released at the end of August showed moderate economic growth, with the market moving 47 pips following the announcement. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and provides a comprehensive overview of the health of the economy.

The data released indicated a steady but not overly exuberant economic expansion, aligning with the Federal Reserve's expectations and the broader market sentiment. A balanced GDP figure often suggests that while the economy is growing, it is not doing so at an unsustainable pace. This can reassure investors and traders that the economic environment is stable, reducing the likelihood of sharp policy changes by the Fed.

Conclusion

August 2024 was a month of significant economic data releases, each shaping market sentiment and trading activity. The weaker-than-expected employment figures and stronger-than-expected retail sales figures indicated a mixed economy, while the DOE Natural Gas Storage Report highlighted tight conditions in the energy market. Meanwhile, the GDP report painted a picture of steady growth, reassuring markets of the economy's resilience.

For traders and investors, these reports serve as crucial indicators of market trends and potential shifts in economic policy. Staying informed and understanding the implications of these data releases is essential for making well-informed decisions in the financial markets.

As we look ahead, it will be important to monitor how these indicators evolve and what they suggest about the future direction of the U.S. economy and global financial markets.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Start futures/forex/oil/grains news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, we offer one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data and macro-economic data from Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Switzerland and ECB interest rates and statement.

Please let us know your feedback and check out our G4A low latency data feed.

All data is machine readable and available via API access in Aurora, CH1, NY4 and LD4. Free trials.

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72 pips potential profit in 91 seconds on 4 September 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 72 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 4 September 2024.

USDJPY (59 pips)

EURUSD (13 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Understanding the Latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Data: Insights from July 2024

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) for July 2024, providing valuable insights into the dynamics of the U.S. labor market. Let's dive into the key takeaways from this latest report to understand the current employment landscape better.

Job Openings Remain Steady

As of the last business day of July, the number of job openings in the U.S. remained relatively stable at 7.7 million. Although this figure reflects little change from the previous month, it represents a significant decrease of 1.1 million job openings compared to the same time last year. The job openings rate, which measures the number of job openings as a percentage of total employment plus job openings, held steady at 4.6%.

Breaking it down by sector, notable decreases in job openings were observed in:

  • Health Care and Social Assistance: Down by 187,000

  • State and Local Government, Excluding Education: Down by 101,000

  • Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities: Down by 88,000

Conversely, some sectors saw an increase in job openings:

  • Professional and Business Services: Up by 178,000

  • Federal Government: Up by 28,000

These figures highlight the shifting demand for labor across different sectors of the economy.

Hiring Activity

The number of hires in July remained largely unchanged at 5.5 million, with a hire rate of 3.5%. This stability suggests that employers are maintaining a cautious approach in their hiring practices, possibly due to economic uncertainties or sector-specific challenges.

However, within certain sectors, there were notable changes:

  • Accommodation and Food Services: Hires increased by 156,000, indicating a robust demand for workers in this sector, potentially driven by the continued recovery in travel and dining.

  • Federal Government: Hires decreased by 8,000, reflecting a slowdown in recruitment activities.

Separations: Understanding the Fluctuations

Total separations, which encompass quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations, increased to 5.4 million in July, up by 336,000 from the previous month. The total separations rate, however, remained relatively stable at 3.4%.

Quits

Quits, often seen as a measure of workers' confidence in their ability to leave jobs for better opportunities, were unchanged at 3.3 million in July. However, this figure is down by 338,000 from July 2023, indicating a potential decrease in employee mobility or willingness to change jobs.

There was an increase in quits within the Information sector, rising by 16,000. This could signal that workers in this industry feel more confident about their employment prospects or are exploring new opportunities.

Layoffs and Discharges

The number of layoffs and discharges, representing involuntary separations initiated by employers, remained steady at 1.8 million, with a rate of 1.1%. Specific sectors did experience increases:

  • Accommodation and Food Services: Up by 75,000

  • Finance and Insurance: Up by 21,000

These increases suggest that while some sectors are expanding, others are adjusting their workforce needs, potentially due to shifting market conditions or internal restructuring efforts.

Other Separations

"Other separations," which include retirements, deaths, disabilities, and transfers to different locations within the same company, increased to 381,000, up by 71,000 in July. This uptick could reflect demographic shifts or changes in company policies regarding retirements and transfers.

Trends by Establishment Size

The JOLTS report also breaks down data by establishment size, offering a glimpse into how businesses of different sizes are navigating the labor market:

  • Small Establishments (1 to 9 employees): These businesses saw a decrease in the quits rate and an increase in the layoffs and discharges rate, indicating potential challenges in retaining staff or a more dynamic restructuring process.

  • Large Establishments (5,000 or more employees): These larger entities experienced little to no change across various metrics, suggesting a stable employment environment within big businesses.

Revisions to June 2024 Data

It's worth noting that the BLS revised its June 2024 data, with job openings revised down by 274,000 to 7.9 million and hires revised down by 93,000 to 5.2 million. These revisions underscore the evolving nature of labor market data, as new information becomes available and seasonal factors are recalibrated.

Looking Ahead

The next JOLTS release, which will cover data for August 2024, is scheduled for October 1, 2024. As we await further data, these figures from July offer a snapshot of a labor market in flux, characterized by sector-specific shifts and a cautious approach to hiring and separations. Employers and job seekers alike will benefit from staying informed about these trends as they navigate the current economic landscape.

Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of labor market conditions in the coming months!

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

Start futures #forex fx news #trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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47 pips potential profit in 56 seconds on 29 August 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 47 pips on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on 29 August 2024.

USDJPY (37 pips)

EURUSD (10 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

U.S. Economy Shows Strong Growth in Q2 2024: A Closer Look at the Latest GDP and Corporate Profits Data

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released the "second" estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2024, revealing a stronger economic performance than initially reported. The updated figures show a robust annual growth rate of 3.0% for real GDP, marking a notable acceleration from the 1.4% growth observed in the first quarter of the year. This positive momentum underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst various global and domestic challenges.

Key Highlights from the Second Quarter GDP Report

  1. Real GDP Growth: The real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0% in Q2 2024, up from the "advance" estimate of 2.8%. This revision is based on more comprehensive data, particularly reflecting stronger-than-expected consumer spending. In comparison, the GDP growth in Q1 2024 was 1.4%, highlighting a significant acceleration.

  2. Components of GDP: The growth in GDP was driven primarily by increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. However, these gains were partially offset by a downturn in residential fixed investment. Additionally, imports, which subtract from the GDP calculation, increased during the quarter.

  3. Current-Dollar GDP: On a current-dollar basis, GDP increased by 5.5% or $383.2 billion in Q2, reaching a total level of $28.65 trillion. This is an upward revision of $23.2 billion from the previous estimate.

  4. Price Indices: The price index for gross domestic purchases rose by 2.4%, slightly up from the prior estimate of 2.3%. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key measure of inflation, increased by 2.5%, though this is a slight downward revision from the earlier estimate of 2.6%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE price index increased by 2.8%.

Insights on Personal Income and Savings

  • Personal Income: Current-dollar personal income saw an increase of $233.6 billion in Q2, which is a downward revision of $4.0 billion from the earlier estimate. This rise was primarily driven by higher compensation and personal current transfer receipts.

  • Disposable Personal Income: Disposable personal income, after taxes and adjustments, increased by $183.0 billion or 3.6%, which is slightly lower than the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income, which accounts for inflation, grew by 1.0%.

  • Personal Saving Rate: The personal saving rate, defined as personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was revised down to 3.3% from the previous estimate of 3.5%.

Corporate Profits Rebound in Q2 2024

A significant highlight of the report is the rebound in corporate profits in Q2 2024. Profits from current production increased by $57.6 billion, following a decline of $47.1 billion in Q1. This marks a substantial recovery and suggests improved profitability among U.S. businesses.

  • Sectoral Performance: Profits of domestic financial corporations increased by $46.4 billion, though this is a deceleration from the $65.0 billion increase in Q1. Nonfinancial corporations, on the other hand, saw profits rise by $29.2 billion, reversing a decline of $114.5 billion in the previous quarter. However, profits from the rest of the world decreased by $18.0 billion, contrasting with a $2.3 billion increase in Q1.

Understanding the Revisions and Future Releases

The upward revision in the GDP estimate for Q2 was mainly due to stronger consumer spending, offset by downward adjustments in other areas like nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and government spending. The BEA will continue to refine these estimates as more data becomes available.

Looking ahead, the BEA will release the third estimate of GDP and revised corporate profits for Q2 2024 on September 26, 2024. This will coincide with the annual update of the National Economic Accounts, which includes revised statistics for GDP, GDP by industry, and gross domestic income.

Conclusion

The latest GDP figures for Q2 2024 indicate a resilient and growing U.S. economy, bolstered by robust consumer spending and a rebound in corporate profits. While certain sectors, such as residential fixed investment, have shown weakness, the overall economic landscape appears positive. As we await further data and the next round of estimates, these findings provide a cautiously optimistic outlook for the remainder of the year.

Stay tuned for more updates as the BEA releases additional data in the coming weeks.

Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-second-estimate-corporate-profits-preliminary-estimate-second

Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feeds for macro-economic and commodity data from the US and Europe.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

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1024 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 26 events in the second quarter of 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

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1024 pips potential futures forex fx news trading profit from 26 events in the second quarter of 2024 with Haawks G4A machine-readable news data feed

We are pleased to announce that there was a potential of 1024 pips/ticks profit out of the following 26 events in the second quarter of 2024 based on our ex-post analysis. The potential performance for 2023 was 13,607 pips/ticks.

Q2 2024

Cumulative potential, indicative performance Q2 2024, please see all releases below.

Total trading time would have been around 21 minutes in 3 months! (preparation time not included)

Analyzing Key Economic Events and Their Impact on Financial Markets (April-June 2024)

As we progress through 2024, several key economic events have continued to influence financial markets globally. The period from April to June 2024 has been particularly eventful, with significant data releases that impacted currency and commodity markets. In this post, we will explore some of these critical events, their market impact, and what they might signify for the broader economic landscape.

April 2024: Volatility in the Markets

April began with the release of the DOE Natural Gas Storage Report on April 4, which saw a movement of 10 ticks. This report, which measures the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week, often influences natural gas prices. The relatively small tick movement suggests a modest reaction from traders, likely due to market expectations aligning closely with the actual figures.

On April 5, the Canada Labour Force Survey caused a 46-pip movement in the CAD/USD pair. This report is a significant indicator of economic health, as it provides insight into employment levels. The notable movement suggests that the data either exceeded or fell short of market expectations, leading to a substantial adjustment in the value of the Canadian dollar.

April 10 was particularly volatile, with two significant releases: the US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI), which moved the market by 57 pips, and the DOE Petroleum Status Report, which shifted the market by 38 ticks. The CPI is a critical measure of inflation, and a higher-than-expected figure likely led to speculation about future Federal Reserve actions, causing the US dollar to react accordingly. Similarly, the Petroleum Status Report's impact on oil prices demonstrates the sensitivity of energy markets to inventory changes.

Mid-April to May 2024: Inflation and Economic Growth in Focus

The US BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) on April 11 moved the market by 35 pips, reflecting concerns about inflation at the wholesale level. The subsequent DOE Natural Gas Storage Report on the same day moved the market by 21 ticks, further impacting energy prices.

The US Retail Sales report on April 15 saw a 39-pip movement, indicating how consumer spending, a major driver of the US economy, is trending. This data often influences investor sentiment about the health of the economy.

In the latter half of April, the Sweden Labour Force Survey on April 24 caused a significant 67-pip movement in the SEK, reflecting how closely traders watch employment data for clues about economic strength in the region. On the same day, Canada's Retail Sales report moved the market by 13 pips, underscoring its relative importance to the Canadian economy.

As we moved into May, several key reports again captured market attention. The US BLS Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) on May 3 saw a 77-pip movement, as traders reacted to the latest jobs data, a critical indicator of economic health. On May 9, the DOE Natural Gas Storage Report caused a 23-tick movement, continuing the trend of energy market sensitivity.

Mid-May brought significant volatility with the US Retail Sales and CPI data on May 15, causing a substantial 104-pip movement. The simultaneous release of these reports provided a comprehensive view of consumer behavior and inflation, leading to significant market adjustments. The DOE Petroleum Status Report on the same day moved the market by 33 ticks, further highlighting the impact of energy data on trading.

June 2024: Inflation and Employment Data Continue to Drive Markets

June started with the DOE Natural Gas Storage Report on June 6, moving the market by 40 ticks, followed by the US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) on June 7, which caused a 58-pip movement. These reports set the tone for the month, focusing on energy prices and employment.

The US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) on June 12 moved the market by 62 pips, showing the continued market sensitivity to inflation data. On June 13, the US Jobless Claims and PPI data caused a 44-pip movement, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and employment.

Finally, the Sweden CPI on June 14 caused a significant 81-pip movement in the SEK, underscoring the importance of inflation data in influencing currency values.

Conclusion

The period from April to June 2024 has been marked by significant economic data releases, each driving notable movements in the financial markets. These events highlight the interconnectedness of global economies and the importance of key indicators such as inflation, employment, and retail sales in shaping market expectations and reactions. As we move forward, keeping a close eye on these releases will be crucial for investors and traders looking to navigate the complexities of the financial markets.

Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to monitor these and other key economic events throughout the year.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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38 ticks potential profit in 46 seconds on 15 August 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading natural gas on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data

According to our analysis natural gas moved 38 ticks on DOE Natural Gas Storage Report data on 15 August 2024.

Natural gas (38 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report: Slight Decline in Working Gas Stocks Amid Seasonal Variations

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending August 9, 2024. The report indicates a slight decrease in the total working gas in storage across the Lower 48 states, with key regional variations highlighting the ongoing dynamics in the natural gas market.

Key Figures from the Report:

  • Total Working Gas: As of August 9, 2024, the total working gas in underground storage was 3,264 billion cubic feet (Bcf), reflecting a net decrease of 6 Bcf from the previous week’s level of 3,270 Bcf.

  • Year-over-Year Comparison: The current storage level is 209 Bcf higher than the same period last year, marking a 6.8% increase. Moreover, it is 375 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,889 Bcf, a significant 13.0% surplus.

  • Regional Insights:

    • East: The East region saw a modest increase of 4 Bcf, bringing its total to 723 Bcf. This is 1.5% higher than last year and 9.9% above the five-year average.

    • Midwest: The Midwest experienced the largest net increase, with 15 Bcf added, raising its total to 869 Bcf. This represents a 7.7% increase from last year and a 13.6% rise compared to the five-year average.

    • Mountain: The Mountain region’s storage grew by 3 Bcf to 260 Bcf, a remarkable 30.0% higher than last year and 43.6% above the five-year average.

    • Pacific: Contrarily, the Pacific region saw a net decrease of 2 Bcf, bringing its storage down to 287 Bcf. Despite this decline, the region’s storage remains 20.6% higher than last year and 9.1% above the five-year average.

    • South Central: The South Central region experienced the most significant decline, with a 27 Bcf drop in storage, bringing the total to 1,125 Bcf. This region includes salt and nonsalt storage facilities, which saw decreases of 14 Bcf and 12 Bcf, respectively. Despite the decrease, the region’s storage is still 2.6% higher than last year and 10.2% above the five-year average.

Analysis and Implications:

The slight overall decrease of 6 Bcf in working gas stocks this week can be attributed to seasonal fluctuations and regional demand variations. The data reveals a complex picture, where some regions, like the Midwest and Mountain, have seen substantial increases, while others, particularly the South Central region, have experienced notable declines.

The South Central region’s significant reduction is noteworthy, as it typically plays a critical role in balancing supply and demand, particularly during the high-demand periods in the winter. The drop in this region may reflect current consumption trends or changes in production patterns.

Conversely, the increases in the Midwest and Mountain regions suggest a buildup of reserves in preparation for the upcoming winter season. The high levels in the Mountain region, in particular, may indicate strategic storage aimed at mitigating any potential supply disruptions or price volatility.

The overall surplus of 375 Bcf above the five-year average provides a buffer that could help stabilize prices and supply during periods of high demand. However, the variations between regions underscore the importance of monitoring these trends closely, as they could impact local markets differently.

Looking Ahead:

As we approach the end of summer and transition into the cooler months, the trends in natural gas storage will be crucial for forecasting winter energy markets. The current surplus is a positive indicator, but continued monitoring of regional storage levels and production rates will be essential to ensure market stability.

Energy traders, policymakers, and consumers should keep an eye on upcoming reports, especially as they may reflect the early impacts of seasonal demand increases and potential weather-related disruptions.

Stay tuned for next week’s report, which will be released on August 22, 2024, to see how these trends evolve as we move closer to the high-demand winter season.

Source: https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

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84 pips potential profit in 53 seconds on 15 August 2024, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Retail Sales data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 84 pips on US Retail Sales data on 15 August 2024.

USDJPY (63 pips)

EURUSD (21 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

July 2024 Retail and Food Services Sales Show Solid Growth Amid Economic Uncertainty

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its advance estimates for retail and food services sales in July 2024, showcasing a steady rise in consumer spending. Despite ongoing economic uncertainties, the report reveals encouraging signs for the retail sector, with both month-over-month and year-over-year growth exceeding expectations.

Key Highlights:

  • Total Sales: U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2024 were estimated at $709.7 billion. This marks a 1.0% increase from June 2024 and a 2.7% rise compared to July 2023.

  • Three-Month Comparison: Sales for the May through July 2024 period climbed by 2.4% compared to the same period in 2023, indicating a sustained upward trend in consumer spending.

  • Retail Trade: Sales in retail trade grew by 1.1% from June 2024 and by 2.6% year-over-year. This sector continues to be a vital component of the overall economy, reflecting consumer confidence and purchasing power.

  • Nonstore Retailers: Nonstore retailers, which include online shopping platforms, saw a significant 6.7% increase from July 2023. This growth underscores the ongoing shift towards e-commerce and the importance of digital channels in modern retail.

  • Food Services and Drinking Places: This category experienced a 3.4% rise from July 2023, highlighting the resilience of the hospitality sector as it continues to recover from the impacts of the pandemic.

Revised Data for June 2024

Interestingly, the previously reported data for June 2024 was slightly adjusted. Initially, the change from May to June was reported as virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent). However, this has been revised to reflect a modest decline of 0.2% (±0.2 percent). While this revision is minor, it points to the importance of accurate data collection and analysis in understanding economic trends.

What This Means for the Economy

The July 2024 retail and food services sales figures suggest that despite ongoing challenges, such as inflationary pressures and fluctuating consumer confidence, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience. The steady increase in sales, particularly in nonstore retail and food services, indicates that consumers are still willing to spend, especially in areas that offer convenience and experiences.

This growth is a positive indicator for businesses across the retail spectrum, from traditional brick-and-mortar stores to online platforms. The continued recovery in the food services sector is particularly noteworthy, as it reflects consumers' increasing comfort with dining out and engaging in social activities.

As we move forward, it will be essential to monitor how these trends evolve, especially in the face of potential economic headwinds. However, for now, the data from July 2024 provides a reason for cautious optimism in the retail and food services sectors.

Conclusion

The latest advance estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau paint a picture of steady growth in consumer spending across retail and food services in July 2024. With a 1.0% month-over-month increase and a 2.7% rise compared to the previous year, the data suggests that the U.S. economy remains on a solid footing. As businesses continue to navigate an evolving economic landscape, these figures offer a glimmer of hope and a sign that the retail sector, in particular, is adapting and thriving.

Stay tuned for further updates and analysis as we continue to track these critical economic indicators.

Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

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