14 pips, US30 144 points and BTC 739 points potential profit in 176 seconds on 7 February 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on Michigan Consumer Sentiment

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 14 pips, US30 moved 144 points and BTC 739 points on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 7 February 2025.

USDJPY (7 pips)

EURUSD (7 pips)

US30 (144 points)

BTC (739 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

---

Markets React to Consumer Sentiment Drop: US30 & BTC Decline

The preliminary consumer sentiment data for February 2025 came in lower than expected, triggering a broad risk-off sentiment across financial markets. The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) and Bitcoin (BTC) both moved lower following the release, as traders reacted to rising inflation fears and weakening economic confidence.

Consumer Sentiment Declines for a Second Month

The Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 67.8, marking a 4.6% decline from January and an 11.8% drop year-over-year. This drop represents the lowest level since July 2024 and reflects growing concerns over economic conditions, inflation, and future expectations.

The Current Economic Conditions index fell even further, down 7.2% month-over-month and 13.5% from last year, showing that consumers are increasingly cautious about spending. Meanwhile, the Index of Consumer Expectations declined 2.9% month-over-month and 10.5% year-over-year, signaling growing pessimism about the future economic landscape.

Market Reaction: US30 (Dow) Pulls Back

US equities, particularly the Dow Jones (US30), reacted negatively to the report. With consumer sentiment weakening, concerns over slowing economic growth and the impact of tariffs on durable goods purchases added downward pressure on stocks.

• Buying conditions for durable goods fell by 12%, reinforcing concerns that consumer demand may weaken.

• Inflation expectations jumped from 3.3% to 4.3%, raising fears that the Federal Reserve might have to keep interest rates higher for longer.

• The market had been pricing in potential rate cuts later in the year, but rising inflation expectations complicate that outlook, leading to a sell-off in equities.

Bitcoin (BTC) Also Takes a Hit

Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against inflation, has struggled to find bullish momentum in this environment. BTC dropped in tandem with equities, signaling that risk-off sentiment has spilled over into the crypto market.

• Rising inflation concerns can sometimes benefit Bitcoin as a hedge, but if interest rates stay high for longer, it diminishes the appeal of speculative assets like BTC.

• A decline in consumer sentiment and economic confidence could lead to reduced liquidity in financial markets, limiting Bitcoin’s upside in the short term.

• Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range, and this sentiment-driven dip could push prices toward key support levels.

Looking Ahead: Key Levels to Watch

With final February consumer sentiment data set to be released on February 21, traders will be closely watching whether the trend worsens or stabilizes. Additionally, any new comments from the Federal Reserve on inflation expectations and interest rates will heavily influence market direction.

Conclusion: A Cautious Trading Environment

The sharp drop in consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations have created uncertainty for both traditional and crypto markets. As traders assess the evolving macroeconomic landscape, volatility is likely to remain high. Risk management will be crucial in the coming weeks as markets digest incoming economic data and central bank policy signals.

For now, sentiment remains fragile, and traders should stay alert to any further deterioration in economic indicators that could fuel additional downside pressure in both US30 and BTC.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

---

Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

51 pips potential profit in 3 second on 1 March 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 51 pips on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 1 March 2024.

USDJPY (31 pips)

EURUSD (20 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

---

Analyzing the February 2024 Consumer Sentiment: A Closer Look at Economic Perspectives

As we delve into the latest data from February 2024, a nuanced picture of consumer sentiment emerges, reflecting a complex interplay of expectations, current economic conditions, and inflation perceptions. The February report showcases a slight decline in consumer sentiment, with the Index of Consumer Sentiment falling to 76.9 from January's 79.0, marking a 2.7% decrease. Despite this month-to-month slip, the year-over-year comparison reveals a robust 14.9% increase from February 2023's 66.9, highlighting a significant uplift in consumer confidence over the past year.

Current Economic Conditions and Expectations

The Current Economic Conditions Index also witnessed a decline, dropping from 81.9 in January to 79.4 in February 2024, which translates to a 3.1% decrease. However, this dip does not overshadow the 12.3% year-over-year improvement from February 2023's 70.7, indicating that consumers perceive a stronger economy now than they did a year ago.

On the other hand, the Index of Consumer Expectations, which measures future economic prospects, decreased by 2.5% to 75.2 from January's 77.1. Yet, it stands 16.6% higher than the previous year's 64.5, suggesting a growing optimism about the economic future despite the slight month-to-month contraction.

Inflation Expectations: A Silver Lining?

A critical aspect of the report is the nuanced understanding of inflation expectations. Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up slightly from 2.9% in January to 3.0% in February. This subtle increase is within the 2.3-3.0% range observed in 2018 and 2019, indicating that short-run inflation expectations are stabilizing within pre-pandemic norms. Long-run inflation expectations remained steady at 2.9% for the third consecutive month, consistently within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 28 of the last 31 months. This steadiness, slightly above the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic, suggests a cautious but stable outlook on inflation among consumers.

Partisan Perceptions and Economic Outlook

The featured chart on "Partisan Perceptions and Expectations" from February 23, 2024, further enriches the narrative by illustrating how political affiliations may influence economic perceptions and expectations. This aspect underscores the complexity of consumer sentiment and its susceptibility to broader socio-political dynamics.

Forward Look

Consumer sentiment's slight dip in February 2024, juxtaposed against the backdrop of significant year-over-year gains, offers a multi-dimensional view of the consumer psyche. The steadiness in long-term inflation expectations and the modest increase in short-term views reflect a cautious optimism among consumers. They seem assured by the trajectory of the economy and inflation, despite recognizing the uncertainties that lie ahead.

As we await the next data release on March 15, 2024, for preliminary March data, it will be intriguing to see how these trends evolve. Will consumer sentiment continue to hold the gains of the past months, or will new economic developments sway the public's confidence? Only time will tell, but for now, the February report provides a substantive basis for understanding current consumer attitudes towards the economy and inflation.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

---

Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

20 pips potential profit in 1 second on 19 January 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 20 pips on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 19 January 2024.

USDJPY (13 pips)

EURUSD (7 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

---

The preliminary results for January 2024 from the Surveys of Consumers indicate a significant improvement in consumer sentiment in the United States. Here are some key highlights from the data:

1. Index of Consumer Sentiment: This index saw a notable increase, rising to 78.8 in January 2024 from 69.7 in December 2023, which is a 13.1% monthly increase and a 21.4% increase compared to January 2023.

2. Current Economic Conditions: This metric also showed improvement, increasing to 83.3 in January 2024 from 73.3 in December 2023, marking a 13.6% rise month-over-month and a 21.6% rise year-over-year.

3. Index of Consumer Expectations: It rose to 75.9 in January 2024, up from 67.4 in December 2023, reflecting a 12.6% increase month-over-month and a 21.2% increase year-over-year.

4. Consumer Sentiment Dynamics: The report highlights that consumer sentiment has significantly risen, reaching its highest level since July 2021. This improvement is attributed to increased confidence in inflation control and strengthening income expectations. Over the last two months, sentiment has seen the largest two-month increase since 1991, signaling a robust recovery from the all-time low in June 2022.

5. Broad-Based Improvement: The improvement in consumer sentiment is noted across various demographics including age, income, education, and geography. Both Democrats and Republicans showed their most favorable readings since summer of 2021.

6. Inflation Expectations: The year-ahead inflation expectations have decreased to 2.9%, the lowest since December 2020. Long-term inflation expectations have also edged down to 2.8%. These figures are slightly higher than the pre-pandemic levels but show a trend towards stabilization.

7. Economic Outlook: The report suggests that the increase in consumer sentiment is likely to provide positive momentum for the economy. The sentiment is now approaching the historical average since 1978, being just 7% shy of it.

This data reflects a positive trend in consumer confidence, which is crucial for economic growth as it often leads to increased consumer spending. The softened inflation expectations indicate a stabilization in the economic outlook, which could positively impact various sectors of the economy.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

---

Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

47 pips potential profit in 45 seconds on 8 December 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 47 pips on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 8 December 2023.

USDJPY (30 pips)

EURUSD (17 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

---

In December 2023, consumer sentiment in the United States experienced a substantial rebound, with a 13.2% increase from the previous month and a notable 16.1% improvement compared to December 2022. This surge, as reflected in the Index of Consumer Sentiment, marks a recovery from declines observed over the past four months. The Current Economic Conditions index also rose by 8.3% month-to-month and exhibited a remarkable 24.2% improvement compared to the same period last year. Similarly, the Index of Consumer Expectations increased by 16.9% compared to November 2023 and showed a 10.7% improvement year-over-year.

The positive shift in sentiment is attributed to improvements in the expected trajectory of inflation. Year-ahead inflation expectations dropped from 4.5% to 3.1%, reaching the lowest level since March 2021. Long-run inflation expectations also decreased from 3.2% to 2.8%, matching the second-lowest reading since July 2021. Despite these declines, long-run inflation expectations remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels.

All five components of the consumer sentiment index rose, with significant surges observed in the short and long-run outlook for business conditions. The improved sentiment was widespread, cutting across various demographics, including age, income, education, geography, and political identification.

Approximately 14% of consumers spontaneously mentioned the potential impact of next year's elections, and their sentiment appeared to incorporate expectations favorable to the economy. The next data release is scheduled for Friday, December 22, 2023, for the final December data, providing further insights into the evolving economic landscape.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

---

Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

26 pips potential profit in 69 seconds on 22 November 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment data

According to our analysis EURUSD and USDJPY moved 26 pips on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 22 November 2023.

EURUSD (10 pips)

USDJPY (16 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

---

Navigating Economic Crosswinds: Consumer Sentiment Update for November 2023

Introduction: In our latest consumer sentiment update for November 2023, we observe a nuanced landscape as the index experiences its fourth consecutive month of decline. This month's 2.5 index point drop, or 4% decrease, reveals a delicate balance of both positive and negative factors influencing consumer perceptions.

Key Points:

1. Mixed Economic Conditions:

   • While consumer sentiment declined, there were improvements in current economic conditions and personal finance expectations.

   • Expectations of business conditions, especially in the long run, took a notable hit, plunging by 15% to its lowest since July 2022.

2. Age Group Dynamics:

   • Younger and middle-aged consumers showed a significant decline in economic attitudes.

   • Sentiment among those aged 55 and older improved from October, showcasing a diverse range of perspectives.

3. Inflation Concerns:

   • Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.5%, indicating heightened concerns compared to October's 4.2%.

   • Long-run inflation expectations reached 3.2%, the highest since 2011, despite the observed slowdown in inflation. Consumers express worries about a potential reversal in the coming months and years.

4. Director's Insight:

   • Joanne Hsu, Surveys of Consumers Director, notes the delicate interplay of factors contributing to the sentiment decline. She highlights the juxtaposition of improved personal financial expectations against concerns about long-term business conditions.

Conclusion: As we navigate the economic crosswinds of November 2023, the consumer sentiment report provides valuable insights. While some indicators point towards optimism, the cautionary notes, especially regarding inflation and long-term business conditions, underscore the complexity of the economic landscape. Keeping an eye on future releases will be crucial for understanding how these dynamics continue to evolve. Stay tuned for our next update on Friday, December 8, 2023, as we delve into the preliminary December data and continue to decode the pulse of consumer sentiment.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

---

Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feeds for US economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

6 pips and 26 points potential profit in 7 seconds on 10 November 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD and US30 on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment

According to our analysis EURUSD and US30 moved 6 pips and 26 points on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 10 November 2023.

EURUSD (6 pips)

US30 (26 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

---

The November 2023 Michigan Consumer Sentiment report portrays a sustained decline in consumer sentiment for the fourth consecutive month. The overall index dipped by 5.3% from October, marking subtle shifts in distinct components. While there were marginal upticks in current and expected personal finances, the long-term economic outlook notably plunged by 12%. Factors such as concerns over high interest rates and ongoing global conflicts in regions like Gaza and Ukraine contributed to this decline. The impact was most pronounced among lower-income and younger consumers, whereas the top tier of stockholders showed a substantial 10% improvement, reflecting recent strength in equity markets.

Additionally, the report emphasized a surge in inflation expectations. Both short-term and long-term projections notably increased, especially in gas prices, reaching the year's highest levels. Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed to 4.4%, highlighting a consistent rise in recent months. Long-run inflation expectations also reached 3.2%, the highest since 2011.

In the markets, the reaction to this sentiment report was relatively measured. While the forex market saw a minor 6-pip downturn in EUR/USD, and the US30 index experienced a 26-point drop, these fluctuations were within the range of typical market movements. Such modest shifts might not signify substantial changes unless part of broader, sustained trends. Traders often analyze these fluctuations in conjunction with other indicators or news to make informed decisions, recognizing them as part of regular market dynamics. The forthcoming data release in November is anticipated to provide further insights into whether these trends will persist or potentially shift.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

---

Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feeds for US economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

15 pips and 37 points potential profit in 7 seconds on 13 October 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD, USDJPY and US30 on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment

According to our analysis EURUSD, USDJPY and US30 moved 15 pips and 37 points on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 13 October 2023.

USDJPY (7 pips)

EURUSD (8 pips)

US30 (37 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

---

Summary of Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Results - October 2023

The preliminary results for October 2023's Consumer Sentiment Index and related economic indicators provide insights into consumer sentiment, economic conditions, and expectations. Here are the key highlights:

Consumer Sentiment Decline:

• The Index of Consumer Sentiment experienced a notable 7.5% decline in October compared to September, marking a reversal from two months of relatively little change.

• Assessments of personal finances decreased by about 15%, primarily due to growing concerns over inflation.

• One-year expected business conditions plunged by approximately 19%.

Outlook on Long-Run Business Conditions:

• While short-term expectations worsened, long-run expected business conditions remained relatively stable, suggesting that consumers believe the current economic challenges are temporary.

Demographic Impact:

• Consumer sentiment setbacks were observed across nearly all demographic groups, reflecting the ongoing impact of rising prices and economic uncertainty.

Inflation Expectations:

• Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.2% in the previous month to 3.8% in October, reaching the highest level since May 2023.

• Long-run inflation expectations increased from 2.8% to 3.0% during the same period, remaining elevated compared to the pre-pandemic range.

These results highlight the ongoing influence of inflation and economic conditions on consumer sentiment. While short-term confidence has waned, the stability of long-run expectations suggests a belief among consumers that current economic challenges will not persist indefinitely.

The upcoming final data release in October will provide a more comprehensive view of consumer sentiment trends, offering valuable insights for policymakers and economists.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

---

Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

33 pips potential profit in 10 seconds on 15 September 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment

According to our analysis EURUSD and USDJPY moved 33 pips on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 15 September 2023.

USDJPY (18 pips)

EURUSD (15 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

---

Consumer Sentiment:

• Consumer sentiment displayed a marginal decline of 1.8 index points during the current reporting period. Over the past two months, sentiment has exhibited relative stability, reflecting the cautious equilibrium in consumer outlook.

• Presently positioned at 67.7 points, consumer sentiment stands approximately 35% above the nadir observed in June 2022, yet falls short of the historical mean of 86.

• The sentiment trajectory revealed divergent movements across constituent index components and demographic segments. Nevertheless, the overall sentiment landscape remained largely unchanged from the preceding month.

• Noteworthy is the mild enhancement in both short-term and long-term expectations for economic conditions in the current assessment. Despite this improvement, consumers retain an element of reservation regarding the future trajectory of the broader economic landscape.

• While there has been limited mention of the potential federal government shutdown within the survey responses thus far, it is acknowledged that should such a scenario materialize, it could exert a detrimental influence on consumer sentiments. This resonance is reminiscent of earlier episodes involving the debt ceiling.

Inflation Outlook:

• Observations pertaining to inflation remained salient within the consumer survey. Notably, consumers registered the deceleration in inflation but anticipate its resurgence.

• Projections for year-ahead inflation exhibited moderation, declining from 3.5% in the previous month to 3.1% in the current month. This reading represents the lowest level recorded since March 2021.

• Noteworthy also is the convergence of long-term inflation expectations, which settled at 2.7%, falling beneath the customary 2.9-3.1% range. This occurrence marks only the second deviation from this range in the past 26 months.

• It is of relevance to highlight that the long-term inflation expectations currently observed were notably situated within the 2.2-2.6% range in the two years preceding the onset of the pandemic.

In summary, the consumer sentiment landscape reflects a nuanced trajectory characterized by marginal fluctuations. Within the broader context, consumers exhibit cautious optimism, manifesting in select enhancements in economic expectations. Meanwhile, inflation dynamics remain a focal point, with a moderation in short-term and long-term expectations noted, indicative of evolving perceptions amid ongoing economic developments.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

---

Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

43 pips potential profit in 3 seconds on 11 August 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectation

According to our analysis EURUSD and USDJPY moved 43 pips on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflations Expectations data on 11 August 2023.

Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

USDJPY (31 pips)

EURUSD (12 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

56 pips potential profit in 32 seconds on 14 July 2023, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectation

According to our analysis EURUSD and USDJPY moved 56 pips on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflations Expectations data on 14 July 2023.

Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

USDJPY (39 pips)

EURUSD (17 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).