40 ticks potential profit on 11 February 2025, analysis on trading corn and wheat futures on USDA WASDE data

According to our analysis corn (ZC) and wheat (WC) futures prices moved around 40 ticks (24 ticks and 16 ticks) on USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) data on 11 February 2025.

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WASDE February 2025: Market Insights for Agricultural Traders

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on February 11, 2025, provides key insights into global agricultural markets. With adjustments in supply, demand, and pricing across major commodities, traders should pay close attention to shifting trends in wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, and livestock.

Wheat Market: Lower Ending Stocks, Price Holds

The U.S. wheat outlook for 2024/25 reflects higher domestic use and lower ending stocks, which fell by 4 million bushels to 794 million. Despite this decline, stocks remain 14% above last year’s levels. The season-average farm price remains unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. Globally, wheat supplies increased slightly due to higher production in Kazakhstan and Argentina. However, world trade declined by 3.0 million tons due to reduced exports from the EU, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. China’s wheat imports were significantly cut to 8.0 million tons—the lowest in five years.

Traders saw wheat futures decline by 16 ticks following the report, likely reflecting expectations of robust U.S. stocks and weaker global trade.

Corn Market: No Change in U.S. Outlook, Lower Global Production

The U.S. corn supply and use outlook remained unchanged this month, but the projected season-average farm price was raised by 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel. Globally, coarse grain production was forecasted 1.8 million tons lower, mainly due to yield losses in Argentina and Brazil caused by heat and dryness. With reduced production and smaller exports from Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa, corn imports for China were also cut. Global ending stocks dropped to 290.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.0 million.

Corn futures fell by 24 ticks, as traders responded to the lowered global production outlook, offset by the lack of significant changes in U.S. supply and demand.

Rice: Rising Imports and Stocks, Price Drops

The U.S. rice market saw increased supplies due to higher imports, with long-grain imports rising while medium- and short-grain imports declined. Domestic use hit a record 166.0 million cwt, while exports fell by 4.0 million cwt. Ending stocks climbed 18% year-over-year to 47.0 million cwt—the highest in a decade. The season-average farm price dropped by $0.20 per cwt to $15.40.

Globally, rice supplies dipped slightly due to a production decline in Sri Lanka, while consumption and trade increased. India’s exports were raised to a near-record 22.0 million tons. Ending stocks fell by 0.5 million tons, mainly due to reductions in India and Sri Lanka.

Soybeans: Lower Global Stocks, U.S. Price Down

While the U.S. soybean balance sheet remained unchanged, the season-average price dropped by 10 cents to $10.10 per bushel. Global soybean production fell, particularly in Argentina and Paraguay, due to persistent heat and dryness. Brazilian production remained at 169.0 million tons, with strong performance in the Center-West offsetting losses in the south. Global soybean ending stocks declined by 4.0 million tons, primarily due to reductions in Argentina and Brazil.

Livestock and Dairy: Production Adjustments and Price Revisions

• Beef: Increased U.S. production expectations led to higher export forecasts, supported by strong global demand. Cattle prices rose across all quarters.

• Pork: Production was raised, but exports were lowered due to slower demand in key markets.

• Poultry: Broiler and turkey production faced downward revisions due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling.

• Eggs: Lower production forecasts due to HPAI-related flock reductions pushed prices higher.

• Dairy: Lower milk production forecasts resulted in tighter domestic supplies, while the all-milk price forecast was revised slightly down to $22.60 per cwt.

Cotton: Minimal Adjustments, Lower Farm Price

The U.S. cotton balance sheet saw minor changes, with domestic mill use lowered and ending stocks increased. The season-average upland farm price was reduced to 63.5 cents per pound. Global cotton production rose, largely due to a 1-million-bale increase in China’s crop, while consumption and trade saw nominal changes.

Key Takeaways for Traders:

• Bearish Corn & Wheat Futures: Declines of 24 and 16 ticks, respectively, indicate market responses to global production trends and stock adjustments.

• Soybean Prices Under Pressure: Lower global stocks suggest tight supplies, but weaker price action indicates concerns over demand.

• Rice & Sugar Trends: Higher rice stocks could keep prices under pressure, while sugar market adjustments reflect shifting trade flows.

• Livestock & Dairy: Price movements across cattle, hogs, and dairy suggest volatility tied to supply constraints and trade dynamics.

Final Thoughts

This WASDE report highlights the importance of monitoring weather-driven production risks, shifting trade flows, and evolving demand trends. With notable changes in global stocks and trade, traders should stay alert to potential market shifts in the coming months.

For those in the agricultural markets, the February 2025 WASDE offers both opportunities and risks. Stay informed, manage your positions wisely, and watch for further developments in weather, policy changes, and global demand trends.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0225.pdf

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Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks and yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage.

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20 pips and BTC 280 points potential profit in 218 seconds on 14 Februar 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and BTC on US Retail Sales data

According to our analysis USDJPY and BTC moved 20 pips and 280 points on US Retail Sales data on 14 February 2025.

USDJPY (20 pips)

BTC (280 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Market Reaction: USD/JPY Drops, Bitcoin Rallies After Weak Retail Sales Data

📅 February 14, 2025

The latest U.S. retail sales report has sent ripples through financial markets, causing USD/JPY to drop 20 pips while Bitcoin surged 280 points. With traders reacting swiftly to the data, let’s break down what’s happening and how you can capitalize on the volatility.

📉 USD/JPY Falls 20 Pips – Weak U.S. Data Weighs on Dollar

The U.S. retail and food services sales for January fell 0.9% from December, worse than market expectations. While still up 4.2% YoY, the weaker month-over-month figure has sparked concerns about consumer spending trends.

💡 Market Reaction:

• The dollar weakened as traders reassess Fed rate cut expectations—a slowdown in retail activity could push the Fed to ease sooner.

• USD/JPY fell 20 pips as demand for the safe-haven yen increased.

• U.S. Treasury yields ticked lower, signaling growing expectations of monetary easing.

🚀 Bitcoin Rallies 280 Points – Risk-On Sentiment Creeping Back?

Bitcoin surged 280 points following the report, as traders bet on softer economic data fueling rate cut speculation. With lower rates favoring risk assets, BTC has resumed its upward momentum.

📢 Final Thoughts

Today’s retail sales report has triggered FX and crypto volatility, with USD/JPY sliding and Bitcoin soaring. As traders digest the data, all eyes will be on Fed policy signals and risk sentiment in the coming days.

🚀 What’s your move? Are you shorting USD/JPY or riding the BTC rally? Drop your strategy in the comments!

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

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23 pips, US30 147 points and BTC 1279 points potential profit in 32 seconds on 12 February 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 23 pips, US30 moved 147 points and Bitcoin (BTC) moved 1279 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 12 February 2025.

USDJPY (23 pips)

US30 (147 points)

Bitcoin BTC (1279 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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CPI Report Shakes Markets: USD/JPY Gains, US30 Drops, BTC Dips

The January 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a higher-than-expected inflation increase of 0.5% month-over-month, bringing the annual CPI to 3.0%. This data immediately sent ripples through the financial markets, impacting major asset classes, including forex, equities, and crypto.

Key CPI Highlights:

• Headline CPI: +0.5% (MoM), +3.0% (YoY)

• Core CPI (Ex-Food & Energy): +0.4% (MoM), +3.3% (YoY)

• Shelter Costs: +0.4% MoM, a major driver of inflation

• Energy Index: +1.1% MoM, fueled by a 1.8% increase in gasoline prices

• Food Index: +0.4% MoM, with food-at-home prices up 0.5%

Market Reaction:

Forex – USD/JPY Rises 23 Pips

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, with USD/JPY climbing 23 pips post-release. This move reflects increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain higher interest rates for longer to combat inflation. The resilience of core CPI above 3.0% further solidifies the Fed’s hawkish stance, making USD more attractive compared to JPY, which remains under the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy.

Equities – US30 Drops 147 Points

Wall Street reacted negatively to the inflation data, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) falling 147 points. Investors are concerned that persistent inflation may delay any potential Fed rate cuts, dampening risk appetite. Additionally, rising costs for shelter and transportation services indicate that consumer spending power could take a hit, affecting corporate earnings.

Crypto – Bitcoin Drops 1,279 Points

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a sharp decline of 1,279 points following the CPI release, reflecting a risk-off sentiment in the broader market. Higher-than-expected inflation led to speculation that Fed policy will remain tight, reducing liquidity for riskier assets like crypto. BTC’s drop also aligns with a broader sell-off in tech and growth stocks, which tend to be more sensitive to interest rate outlooks.

Final Thoughts

Traders should brace for continued volatility as inflation concerns linger. The next major catalyst will be the Fed’s response in upcoming meetings and market reactions to any further economic data releases. Stay alert to potential breakout moves in USD/JPY, US30, and BTC as inflation trends develop.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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14 pips, US30 144 points and BTC 739 points potential profit in 176 seconds on 7 February 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on Michigan Consumer Sentiment

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 14 pips, US30 moved 144 points and BTC 739 points on University Michigan Consumer Sentiment / Inflation Expectations data on 7 February 2025.

USDJPY (7 pips)

EURUSD (7 pips)

US30 (144 points)

BTC (739 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Markets React to Consumer Sentiment Drop: US30 & BTC Decline

The preliminary consumer sentiment data for February 2025 came in lower than expected, triggering a broad risk-off sentiment across financial markets. The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) and Bitcoin (BTC) both moved lower following the release, as traders reacted to rising inflation fears and weakening economic confidence.

Consumer Sentiment Declines for a Second Month

The Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 67.8, marking a 4.6% decline from January and an 11.8% drop year-over-year. This drop represents the lowest level since July 2024 and reflects growing concerns over economic conditions, inflation, and future expectations.

The Current Economic Conditions index fell even further, down 7.2% month-over-month and 13.5% from last year, showing that consumers are increasingly cautious about spending. Meanwhile, the Index of Consumer Expectations declined 2.9% month-over-month and 10.5% year-over-year, signaling growing pessimism about the future economic landscape.

Market Reaction: US30 (Dow) Pulls Back

US equities, particularly the Dow Jones (US30), reacted negatively to the report. With consumer sentiment weakening, concerns over slowing economic growth and the impact of tariffs on durable goods purchases added downward pressure on stocks.

• Buying conditions for durable goods fell by 12%, reinforcing concerns that consumer demand may weaken.

• Inflation expectations jumped from 3.3% to 4.3%, raising fears that the Federal Reserve might have to keep interest rates higher for longer.

• The market had been pricing in potential rate cuts later in the year, but rising inflation expectations complicate that outlook, leading to a sell-off in equities.

Bitcoin (BTC) Also Takes a Hit

Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against inflation, has struggled to find bullish momentum in this environment. BTC dropped in tandem with equities, signaling that risk-off sentiment has spilled over into the crypto market.

• Rising inflation concerns can sometimes benefit Bitcoin as a hedge, but if interest rates stay high for longer, it diminishes the appeal of speculative assets like BTC.

• A decline in consumer sentiment and economic confidence could lead to reduced liquidity in financial markets, limiting Bitcoin’s upside in the short term.

• Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range, and this sentiment-driven dip could push prices toward key support levels.

Looking Ahead: Key Levels to Watch

With final February consumer sentiment data set to be released on February 21, traders will be closely watching whether the trend worsens or stabilizes. Additionally, any new comments from the Federal Reserve on inflation expectations and interest rates will heavily influence market direction.

Conclusion: A Cautious Trading Environment

The sharp drop in consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations have created uncertainty for both traditional and crypto markets. As traders assess the evolving macroeconomic landscape, volatility is likely to remain high. Risk management will be crucial in the coming weeks as markets digest incoming economic data and central bank policy signals.

For now, sentiment remains fragile, and traders should stay alert to any further deterioration in economic indicators that could fuel additional downside pressure in both US30 and BTC.

Source: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

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Start futures and forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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15 pips and US30 26 points potential profit in 26 seconds on 4 February 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 15 pips and US30 moved 26 points on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 4 February 2025.

USDJPY (9 pips)

EURUSD (6 pips)

US30 (26 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover: What Traders Need to Know

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) offers key insights into the U.S. labor market for December 2024. With job openings declining, hiring slowing, and layoffs rising in certain sectors, traders should closely analyze these trends to anticipate market movements.

Key Takeaways for Traders

1. Job Openings Drop to 7.6 Million

• December saw a decrease of 556,000 job openings, bringing the total to 7.6 million.

• This marks a 1.3 million decline over the year, indicating a cooling labor market.

• Sectors Hit Hardest:

  • Professional and business services (-225,000)

  • Healthcare and social assistance (-180,000)

  • Finance and insurance (-136,000)

• Sector Showing Growth:

  • Arts, entertainment, and recreation (+65,000)

• Trader Insight: A declining job openings rate (now at 4.5%) suggests economic slowdown, which could weigh on consumer spending and corporate earnings.

2. Hiring Activity Remains Weak

• The number of hires in December remained flat at 5.5 million, down 325,000 year-over-year.

• Hiring in finance and insurance increased by 48,000, which may indicate resilience in this sector.

• Trader Insight: Weak hiring points to softening corporate growth and potential downward pressure on equities, particularly in sectors with job losses.

3. Separations: Layoffs vs. Quits

• Total separations (quits, layoffs, discharges) held steady at 5.3 million.

• Quits Rate:

  • 2.0% (unchanged)

  • Total quits fell by 242,000 YoY, showing reduced worker confidence.

  • Quits declined in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-42,000), suggesting slowing activity in logistics.

• Layoffs & Discharges:

  • Increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+87,000).

  • Increased in mining and logging (+6,000).

• Trader Insight: Rising layoffs in transportation and warehousing could signal slowing global trade, negatively impacting companies in shipping, logistics, and e-commerce.

Market Implications

Equities:

• Bearish: Sectors seeing major job losses (finance, healthcare, business services) may face weaker earnings.

• Bullish: Companies in entertainment and recreation show hiring growth, suggesting some resilience in consumer discretionary spending.

Fixed Income:

• A softening labor market could lead to increased Federal Reserve dovishness, supporting lower bond yields and a rally in Treasuries.

FX Markets:

• Dollar Weakness? A weakening job market might prompt a less aggressive Fed, potentially denting USD strength.

• Safe Haven Flows: If economic slowdown fears grow, expect flows into JPY and CHF.

Commodities:

• Oil Impact: Increased layoffs in transportation and logistics suggest potential demand weakness, which could weigh on crude prices.

• Gold Strength: Rising economic uncertainty may drive safe-haven demand for gold.

Looking Ahead: January 2025 Report

The next JOLTS report (January 2025) will be released on March 11, 2025. Traders should monitor labor market trends alongside inflation data, GDP growth, and Fed policy shifts for a broader market outlook.

Bottom Line: A cooling labor market is a warning signal for traders. Weaker hiring, falling job openings, and increasing layoffs point to slower economic growth—a potential headwind for risk assets. Stay ahead by adjusting strategies accordingly!

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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Start futures #forex fx news #trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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25 pips, US30 90 points and BTC 1018 points potential profit in 40 seconds on 15 January 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY, EURUSD on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 54 pips, US30 moved 90 points and Bitcoin (BTC) moved 1018 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 15 January 2025.

USDJPY (18 pips)

EURUSD (7 pips)

US30 (90 points)

Bitcoin BTC (1018 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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December 2024 CPI Report: Core Inflation Falls Short of Expectations – What It Means for Markets

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2024 on January 15, 2025. While headline inflation was in line with expectations, core inflation (excluding food and energy) came in slightly cooler than anticipated. The headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, meeting forecasts. However, core CPI increased by 0.2% month-over-month (vs. 0.3% expected) and 3.2% year-over-year (vs. 3.3% expected). Here’s a breakdown of the report and its implications for traders.

Headline Takeaways

1. Headline Inflation: The all-items index rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, reflecting steady inflationary pressures in energy and food prices.

2. Core Inflation Misses: Core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, below the forecasted 0.3%. Year-over-year, core inflation moderated to 3.2%, also below the expected 3.3%.

3. Energy Drives the Headline: Energy prices surged 2.6% month-over-month, with gasoline prices jumping 4.4%, making energy a key driver of the overall CPI increase.

4. Food Inflation Holds Steady: Food prices rose 0.3% month-over-month, with both food at home and food away from home contributing equally to the increase.

Market Implications of Core CPI Miss

Cooling Core Inflation Trends

• The 0.2% month-over-month rise in core CPI marked a modest cooling from the expected 0.3%. Year-over-year, the 3.2% core inflation rate signals gradual easing in underlying price pressures.

• Market Impact: A softer-than-expected core reading could prompt markets to reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, increasing the likelihood of a pause or easing cycle sooner than previously anticipated.

Energy Price Surge Shifts Focus

• Energy prices rose significantly, with a 4.4% increase in gasoline prices dominating the report. However, on a year-over-year basis, energy remains a deflationary factor, down 0.5%.

• Market Impact: Energy-driven headline inflation may not alter the Fed’s trajectory if core inflation continues to cool, but it could buoy commodity markets and inflation-sensitive sectors.

Sector Breakdown

Shelter Remains Elevated

• Shelter costs rose 0.3% month-over-month and 4.6% year-over-year. Shelter remains the largest contributor to core inflation but showed signs of stabilization.

• Implications for Traders: Persistent shelter inflation could limit the Fed’s flexibility, supporting higher-for-longer interest rate expectations.

Food Prices Steady but Mixed

• Food at home (+0.3%) and food away from home (+0.3%) rose in tandem. Cereals and bakery products saw a sharp rise (+1.2%), while nonalcoholic beverages (-0.4%) and fruits and vegetables (-0.1%) declined.

• Market Impact: Stable food inflation supports consumer purchasing power, benefiting consumer discretionary stocks.

Transportation and Autos Drive Core

• Used cars and trucks rebounded with a 1.2% increase, while new vehicles rose 0.5%. Airline fares surged 3.9%.

• Implications for Traders: Rising auto and transportation costs could impact consumer sentiment and provide short-term tailwinds to related industries.

Fed Policy Implications

With core CPI coming in below expectations, markets may interpret the data as a sign that inflation is moderating toward the Federal Reserve’s target. While headline inflation remains steady, the softer core reading could shift the Fed’s tone toward a more dovish stance, especially if cooling trends persist.

Trading Opportunities

1. Equities: Growth stocks and rate-sensitive sectors may gain on expectations of a dovish Fed. Defensive sectors may face headwinds if inflation pressures ease.

2. Bonds: Treasury yields could decline, particularly on the shorter end of the curve, as markets price in reduced rate hike probabilities.

3. Commodities: Energy markets may rally due to the sharp increase in gasoline and natural gas prices. Gold could see gains if inflation expectations moderate.

4. Forex: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) might weaken if traders anticipate a softer Fed policy path.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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104 ticks potential profit on 10 January 2025, analysis on trading soybeans, corn and wheat futures on USDA WASDE and USDA Grain Stocks data

According to our analysis soybeans (ZS), corn (ZC) and wheat (WC) futures prices moved around 104 ticks (36 ticks, 40 ticks and 28 ticks) on USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) and USDA Grain Stocks data on 10 January 2025.

Soybeans (36 ticks)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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January 2025 WASDE and Grain Stocks Report: Key Takeaways for Agricultural Traders

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE - 656) and Grain Stocks Report released on January 10, 2025 provide a comprehensive update on the supply, demand, and stock levels for key commodities. For traders, these reports offer essential insights into potential price movements and market dynamics in the months ahead.

Below is a detailed breakdown of the key highlights for cotton, corn, soybeans, and wheat, covering both U.S. and global markets.

1. Cotton: Bearish Signals from Higher Stocks and Lower Prices

• U.S. Cotton Outlook:

  • Production: Increased by 159,000 bales to 14.4 million bales, driven by higher yields (836 pounds/harvested acre) despite reduced harvested area in the Southwest.

  • Exports: Lowered by 300,000 bales to 11.0 million bales.

  • Ending Stocks: Increased to 4.8 million bales, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to 38%.

  • Farm Price: Reduced to 65 cents per pound, reflecting ample supply and reduced export demand.

• Global Cotton Market:

  • Production: Raised by 2 million bales to 119.4 million bales, primarily due to a 1.8 million-bale increase in China.

  • Consumption: Increased by 100,000 bales, driven by Bangladesh and Vietnam.

  • Trade: Global exports are up 225,000 bales, as gains in Brazil, Australia, and India offset the reduction in U.S. exports.

  • Ending Stocks: Increased by 1.9 million bales, with notable increases in China, Australia, and India.

💡 Trading Takeaway:
The cotton market presents bearish signals as higher global production and U.S. export cuts weigh on prices. Traders should monitor Southeast Asian demand closely and assess the potential impact of China’s stockpiling strategy.

2. Corn: Tighter Supplies Signal Price Support

U.S. Corn Outlook (WASDE):

• Production: Cut to 14.9 billion bushels (-276 million bushels), reflecting a yield reduction to 179.3 bushels/acre (-3.8 bushels/acre).

• Use:

  • Feed & Residual: Reduced by 50 million bushels to 5.8 billion bushels, due to lower-than-expected feed demand.

  • Exports: Lowered by 25 million bushels to 2.5 billion bushels.

• Ending Stocks: Reduced by 198 million bushels to 1.88 billion bushels.

• Farm Price: Increased to $4.25 per bushel (+$0.15), reflecting tighter supplies.

Grain Stocks Report (Corn):

• Total Corn Stocks (Dec 1, 2024): 12.1 billion bushels (-1% year-over-year).

  • On-Farm Stocks: 7.66 billion bushels (-2%).

  • Off-Farm Stocks: 4.41 billion bushels (+2%).

• Disappearance (Sep-Nov 2024): 4.56 billion bushels, slightly above the 4.53 billion bushels reported for the same period in 2023.

Global Corn Market:

• Production: Lowered by 4.8 million tons to 1.494 billion tons, though China’s record harvest (294.9 million tons) offsets some global losses.

• Trade: Global exports declined due to reductions in U.S. and Brazilian shipments.

• Ending Stocks: Lowered by 3.1 million tons to 293.3 million tons, with China increasing its reserves to a record level.

💡 Trading Takeaway:
Corn prices could remain firm due to tightening U.S. supplies and strong domestic feed demand. The market will closely watch Brazil’s export pace and China’s reserve strategy as key determinants of price direction.

3. Soybeans: Higher Stocks with Strong Seasonal Demand

Grain Stocks Report (Soybeans):

• Total Soybean Stocks (Dec 1, 2024): 3.10 billion bushels (+3% year-over-year).

  • On-Farm Stocks: 1.54 billion bushels (+6%).

  • Off-Farm Stocks: 1.56 billion bushels (+1%).

• Disappearance (Sep-Nov 2024): 1.61 billion bushels, up 13% from the same period in 2023, reflecting stronger seasonal demand.

U.S. Soybean Outlook (WASDE):

While soybeans were not specifically highlighted in the WASDE production changes, the robust disappearance from the Grain Stocks Report signals sustained demand, especially for exports and domestic processing.

💡 Trading Takeaway:
The combination of rising stocks and strong disappearance could lead to price fluctuations. Traders should closely watch South American harvest updates and any geopolitical developments that could influence export markets.

4. Wheat: Rising Stocks Amid Strong Demand

U.S. Wheat Outlook (WASDE):

• Supplies: Increased by 5 million bushels to 130 million bushels, driven by higher imports of Hard Red Spring wheat.

• Domestic Use:

  • Feed & Residual Use: Unchanged at 120 million bushels.

  • Seed Use: Increased by 2 million bushels to 64 million bushels.

• Exports: Steady at 850 million bushels despite by-class adjustments.

• Ending Stocks: Raised by 3 million bushels to 798 million bushels (+15% year-over-year).

• Farm Price: Reduced by $0.05 to $5.55 per bushel.

Grain Stocks Report (Wheat):

• Total Wheat Stocks (Dec 1, 2024): 1.57 billion bushels (+10% year-over-year).

  • On-Farm Stocks: 467 million bushels (+16%).

  • Off-Farm Stocks: 1.10 billion bushels (+8%).

• Disappearance (Sep-Nov 2024): 423 million bushels, up 22% from the same period in 2023, reflecting robust demand.

Global Wheat Market:

• Supplies: Raised by 0.4 million tons to 1,060.7 million tons, with gains in Syria and Pakistan offsetting reductions in Uruguay.

• Consumption: Lowered by 0.6 million tons, with Turkey’s demand decrease partially offset by increased usage in Ukraine.

• Trade: Global exports are down 1.7 million tons due to reduced shipments from Russia and Ukraine.

• Ending Stocks: Increased by 0.9 million tons to 258.8 million tons, with increases in Russia, Brazil, and Ukraine offsetting declines in China and Indonesia.

💡 Trading Takeaway:
The wheat market remains mixed. While U.S. imports and global stocks are rising, strong domestic demand and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region could continue to influence prices. Traders should watch for export developments and changes in demand from key buyers like Turkey and China.

Key Summary for Traders:

Commodity	U.S. Supply Trend	Global Supply Trend	Market Sentiment
Cotton	Higher stocks	Rising global production	Bearish
Corn	Lower production	Slight stock decline	Bullish
Soybeans	Higher stocks	Strong demand	Mixed
Wheat	Increased imports	Higher global stocks	Mixed

Final Thoughts:

Agricultural markets are bracing for potential price volatility as the WASDE and Grain Stocks reports highlight key supply and demand shifts. Key areas to watch include:

1. Cotton: Price pressure remains due to higher global production and reduced U.S. exports.

2. Corn: Tighter U.S. supplies and robust feed demand could support prices.

3. Soybeans: Despite higher stocks, strong seasonal demand may limit bearish movements.

4. Wheat: Strong demand contrasts with rising stocks, creating a mixed outlook sensitive to geopolitical risks.

Traders should remain alert to any new developments, particularly weather conditions in South America, policy changes in China, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, as these could significantly impact commodity prices in the coming months.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0125.pdf, https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/xg94hp534/5d86qt759/xp68nc84m/grst0125.pdf

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Haawks G4A is one of the fastest machine-readable data feeds for USDA data. We are beating big names in the industry by seconds. Coverage includes monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), quarterly USDA Grain Stocks and yearly USDA Prospective Plantings and USDA Acreage.

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35 pips and 210 points potential profit in 80 seconds on 10 January 2025, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US30 on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY, EURUSD and US30 moved around 35 pips and 210 points on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 10 January 2025.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (16 pips)

US30 (210 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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December 2024 Employment Report: Key Takeaways for Traders

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its December 2024 Employment Situation Report today, revealing a mixed but largely positive labor market. Here’s what traders need to know and how the data could influence markets in the near term.

Key Highlights of the Report

• Nonfarm Payroll Growth:
  Nonfarm payrolls increased by 256,000, beating market expectations. Gains were led by health care, government, social assistance, and retail trade.

• Unemployment Rate:
  The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market despite concerns of potential softening.

• Wage Growth:
  Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month (+10 cents), bringing the annual wage growth to 3.9% year-over-year.

• Labor Force Participation Rate:
  Unchanged at 62.5%, maintaining the same range seen throughout 2024.

Market Implications

1. Equity Markets:

• Bullish Signal: The robust payroll growth could support cyclical sectors like retail, health care, and consumer discretionary.

• Earnings Potential: With strong wage gains and improved retail hiring, markets may see positive sentiment heading into Q1 earnings season.

• Caveat: If wage growth accelerates beyond expectations in future reports, it could reignite inflation fears.

2. Bond Markets:

• The steady unemployment rate and solid job gains could increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady. However, continued strength may push yields higher if investors price in a more hawkish Fed stance.

3. Forex Market:

• The U.S. dollar may strengthen in response to better-than-expected job numbers, as it reinforces confidence in the U.S. economy.

• Watch for USD pairs, particularly with currencies of economies that are experiencing slower labor market recoveries.

Sector Breakdown for December 2024

• Health Care (+46,000 jobs): Gains were seen across home health care services (+15,000), nursing care facilities (+14,000), and hospitals (+12,000). This continued sector strength may benefit health care ETFs and equities.

• Retail Trade (+43,000 jobs): A recovery from November’s losses was driven by increases in apparel, general merchandise, and health and personal care stores. Retail-focused traders may view this as a sign of resilient consumer demand.

• Government (+33,000 jobs): Job gains, primarily in state government roles, continued a positive trend, though at a slower pace than in 2023.

• Social Assistance (+23,000 jobs): Continued steady growth here supports the broader theme of demand for care services.

Wage and Workweek Trends

• Average Hourly Earnings: Up $0.10 to $35.69 (+3.9% YoY).

• Production and Nonsupervisory Workers: Wages increased by $0.06 to $30.62, signaling continued earnings momentum for middle-income workers.

However, the average workweek remained at 34.3 hours, unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, indicating stable labor utilization across sectors.

Revisions and Seasonal Adjustments

The revisions for October and November combined resulted in a net downward adjustment of 8,000 jobs. Traders should take note of these recalibrations, which may indicate some volatility in reporting but largely point to a stable employment trend.

Key Risks to Watch

• Fed Policy: Traders should monitor any commentary from Federal Reserve officials, as this report keeps the door open for either policy stability or future tightening if wage pressures persist.

• Economic Slowdown Concerns: While the labor market remains strong, longer-term concerns about a potential slowdown in consumer spending or corporate hiring could affect future payroll reports.

• Global Market Sentiment: The forex and commodity markets could be impacted by how global investors interpret the U.S. labor market’s strength relative to international economic conditions.

Conclusion

The December 2024 employment report reinforces the narrative of a robust U.S. labor market with healthy job creation, stable unemployment, and moderate wage growth. Traders should position themselves for potential equity market gains in cyclical sectors while keeping a close eye on bond yields and the Federal Reserve's evolving stance. The next employment report, scheduled for February 7, 2025, will provide further clues as to whether this momentum can continue into the new year.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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25 pips potential profit in 153 seconds on 7 January 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading EURUSD and USDJPY on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 25 pips on US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) data on 7 January 2025.

USDJPY (13 pips)

EURUSD (12 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Understanding the Job Market: Insights from the November 2024 JOLTS Report

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for November 2024, shedding light on the current state of the labor market. Let’s break down the key takeaways and what they mean for job seekers, employers, and policymakers.

Overview of the Labor Market

In November 2024, the number of job openings remained steady at 8.1 million, reflecting minimal month-over-month change but indicating a year-over-year decrease of 833,000 openings. Despite this overall stability, there were notable fluctuations within specific industries that underscore the nuanced nature of the current labor market.

Job Openings: Industry Trends

The job openings rate, at 4.8%, remained largely unchanged. However, there were significant shifts within certain sectors:

• Professional and Business Services: Increased by +273,000 job openings.

• Finance and Insurance: Gained +105,000 new openings.

• Private Educational Services: Increased by +38,000.

• Information Sector: Decreased by -89,000 openings.

These trends suggest continued demand for professionals in service-oriented roles and financial sectors, while industries such as information technology face a reduction in new opportunities.

Hiring Activity

The number of hires in November 2024 stood at 5.3 million, reflecting no significant month-to-month change but marking a year-over-year decline of 300,000 hires. The overall hiring rate remained at 3.3%, signaling a labor market where hiring activity is maintaining a slower but steady pace.

Separations and Quits: A Closer Look

Total separations, which include quits, layoffs, and other types of departures, were 5.1 million in November, down 287,000 from the same period last year. Here’s how the components break down:

• Quits: The number of voluntary resignations dropped to 3.1 million, a decrease of 218,000 over the month and 451,000 over the year. This brought the quits rate to 1.9%, signaling more caution among workers when considering job changes.

• Layoffs and Discharges: These involuntary separations remained at 1.8 million, although this figure represents an increase of 219,000 compared to the previous year. This uptick was particularly noticeable in the accommodation and food services sector, which saw +102,000 additional layoffs and discharges.

The drop in quits suggests a more conservative approach from workers in a period of economic uncertainty, while the rise in layoffs points to possible cost-cutting measures in certain industries.

Impact by Establishment Size

The report also highlighted differences based on company size:

• Small Establishments (1-9 employees): Experienced a decrease in layoffs and discharges.

• Large Establishments (5,000+ employees): Showed little to no change in job openings, hires, or separations, indicating stability in employment patterns for larger employers.

Revisions for October 2024

Revisions to the previous month’s data provided additional clarity:

• Job Openings: Revised upward by 95,000 to 7.8 million.

• Hires: Revised upward by 81,000 to 5.4 million.

• Separations: Revised upward by 45,000 to 5.3 million.

• Within separations, quits were revised downward by 43,000 to 3.3 million, while layoffs and discharges were revised upward by 115,000.

These revisions underscore the importance of ongoing data collection and adjustments as more information becomes available.

What This Means for You

For Job Seekers: The reduction in voluntary quits suggests that fewer people are willing to take the risk of switching jobs. However, opportunities in professional services, finance, and education remain strong.

For Employers: Businesses in certain sectors may need to reconsider hiring and retention strategies to compete for available talent, especially as hiring has slowed but layoffs remain elevated in some industries.

For Policymakers: The increase in layoffs in specific industries and the overall cooling in quits could indicate emerging economic pressures, potentially influencing future policy decisions related to labor and employment.

Looking Ahead

The next JOLTS report, covering December 2024, is scheduled for release on February 4, 2025. As we head into the new year, it will be critical to monitor how labor trends evolve amid changing economic conditions.

Understanding these data points provides valuable context for navigating the complexities of the labor market. Whether you are planning your next career move or assessing your business’s hiring strategies, staying informed is key to making proactive decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

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28 pips potential profit in 222 seconds on 2 January 2025, analysis on futures forex fx news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Jobless Claims data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 28 pips on US Jobless Claims data on 2 January 2025.

USDJPY (28 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims: Key Takeaways from the Latest Report

The latest release from the U.S. Department of Labor on unemployment insurance claims, which was embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (Eastern) on January 2, 2025, sheds light on the current labor market conditions as the year begins. The data provides an overview of initial and continued claims, reflecting overall economic trends and providing an indicator of job market stability.

Initial Claims: A Positive Trend

For the week ending December 28, the seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 211,000, marking a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 220,000. This decline in initial claims indicates a promising trend for job seekers and signals a reduction in layoffs and firings.

It is worth noting that the previous week’s claims were adjusted upward by 1,000 from the originally reported 219,000. Despite this revision, the overall decrease in new claims suggests resilience in the labor market.

4-Week Moving Average: Stability in the Trend

The 4-week moving average, a more stable indicator that smooths out weekly volatility, decreased by 3,500 to 223,250. This figure is down from the revised average of 226,750 from the previous week. The modest but steady downward trend in the moving average indicates that the labor market has maintained relative stability over the past month.

Insured Unemployment Rate: Slight Decline

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate for the week ending December 21 fell by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%. This insured unemployment rate measures the proportion of the labor force currently receiving unemployment benefits and is a key indicator of sustained employment levels.

Continued Claims: Encouraging Decrease

The advance number of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment claims—often referred to as "continued claims"—for the week ending December 21 was 1,844,000, reflecting a decrease of 52,000 from the revised figure of 1,896,000 for the previous week. This decrease in continued claims is another positive sign of improving employment prospects.

The previous week’s continued claims were revised downward by 14,000 from 1,910,000 to 1,896,000. Such downward revisions can reflect better-than-expected retention in the workforce and highlight corrections based on updated data.

4-Week Moving Average of Continued Claims

Similarly, the 4-week moving average of continued claims decreased by 6,750 to 1,870,750. This represents a slight improvement from the revised average of 1,877,500 from the previous week. The consistent downward trend over recent weeks further underscores the broader labor market’s ability to absorb job losses and maintain employment growth.

What This Means for the Economy

The latest data on unemployment claims indicates that the job market remains strong despite economic uncertainties. Declining initial and continued claims suggest that layoffs are minimal and that workers who lose their jobs are able to find new employment relatively quickly.

This trend aligns with broader economic indicators that suggest continued growth in the labor market as 2025 begins. While external factors such as inflation and global economic conditions may pose risks, the sustained decrease in unemployment claims points to a healthy job market that supports economic resilience.

Looking Ahead

As the economy moves into the new year, economists and policymakers will closely monitor labor market data to gauge the effects of monetary policies and broader economic shifts. For job seekers, these figures provide a hopeful outlook, indicating that employment opportunities remain abundant.

The next report on unemployment claims will provide further insight into whether this trend continues or shifts. For now, the data shows a labor market that continues to stabilize and strengthen after a year of navigating economic uncertainties.

Stay tuned for future updates as we track key employment trends and what they mean for the broader economy.

Sources: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

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