23 pips, US30 147 points and BTC 1279 points potential profit in 32 seconds on 12 February 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY moved 23 pips, US30 moved 147 points and Bitcoin (BTC) moved 1279 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 12 February 2025.

USDJPY (23 pips)

US30 (147 points)

Bitcoin BTC (1279 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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CPI Report Shakes Markets: USD/JPY Gains, US30 Drops, BTC Dips

The January 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a higher-than-expected inflation increase of 0.5% month-over-month, bringing the annual CPI to 3.0%. This data immediately sent ripples through the financial markets, impacting major asset classes, including forex, equities, and crypto.

Key CPI Highlights:

• Headline CPI: +0.5% (MoM), +3.0% (YoY)

• Core CPI (Ex-Food & Energy): +0.4% (MoM), +3.3% (YoY)

• Shelter Costs: +0.4% MoM, a major driver of inflation

• Energy Index: +1.1% MoM, fueled by a 1.8% increase in gasoline prices

• Food Index: +0.4% MoM, with food-at-home prices up 0.5%

Market Reaction:

Forex – USD/JPY Rises 23 Pips

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, with USD/JPY climbing 23 pips post-release. This move reflects increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain higher interest rates for longer to combat inflation. The resilience of core CPI above 3.0% further solidifies the Fed’s hawkish stance, making USD more attractive compared to JPY, which remains under the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy.

Equities – US30 Drops 147 Points

Wall Street reacted negatively to the inflation data, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) falling 147 points. Investors are concerned that persistent inflation may delay any potential Fed rate cuts, dampening risk appetite. Additionally, rising costs for shelter and transportation services indicate that consumer spending power could take a hit, affecting corporate earnings.

Crypto – Bitcoin Drops 1,279 Points

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a sharp decline of 1,279 points following the CPI release, reflecting a risk-off sentiment in the broader market. Higher-than-expected inflation led to speculation that Fed policy will remain tight, reducing liquidity for riskier assets like crypto. BTC’s drop also aligns with a broader sell-off in tech and growth stocks, which tend to be more sensitive to interest rate outlooks.

Final Thoughts

Traders should brace for continued volatility as inflation concerns linger. The next major catalyst will be the Fed’s response in upcoming meetings and market reactions to any further economic data releases. Stay alert to potential breakout moves in USD/JPY, US30, and BTC as inflation trends develop.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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25 pips, US30 90 points and BTC 1018 points potential profit in 40 seconds on 15 January 2025, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY, EURUSD on US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 54 pips, US30 moved 90 points and Bitcoin (BTC) moved 1018 points on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 15 January 2025.

USDJPY (18 pips)

EURUSD (7 pips)

US30 (90 points)

Bitcoin BTC (1018 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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December 2024 CPI Report: Core Inflation Falls Short of Expectations – What It Means for Markets

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2024 on January 15, 2025. While headline inflation was in line with expectations, core inflation (excluding food and energy) came in slightly cooler than anticipated. The headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, meeting forecasts. However, core CPI increased by 0.2% month-over-month (vs. 0.3% expected) and 3.2% year-over-year (vs. 3.3% expected). Here’s a breakdown of the report and its implications for traders.

Headline Takeaways

1. Headline Inflation: The all-items index rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, reflecting steady inflationary pressures in energy and food prices.

2. Core Inflation Misses: Core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, below the forecasted 0.3%. Year-over-year, core inflation moderated to 3.2%, also below the expected 3.3%.

3. Energy Drives the Headline: Energy prices surged 2.6% month-over-month, with gasoline prices jumping 4.4%, making energy a key driver of the overall CPI increase.

4. Food Inflation Holds Steady: Food prices rose 0.3% month-over-month, with both food at home and food away from home contributing equally to the increase.

Market Implications of Core CPI Miss

Cooling Core Inflation Trends

• The 0.2% month-over-month rise in core CPI marked a modest cooling from the expected 0.3%. Year-over-year, the 3.2% core inflation rate signals gradual easing in underlying price pressures.

• Market Impact: A softer-than-expected core reading could prompt markets to reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, increasing the likelihood of a pause or easing cycle sooner than previously anticipated.

Energy Price Surge Shifts Focus

• Energy prices rose significantly, with a 4.4% increase in gasoline prices dominating the report. However, on a year-over-year basis, energy remains a deflationary factor, down 0.5%.

• Market Impact: Energy-driven headline inflation may not alter the Fed’s trajectory if core inflation continues to cool, but it could buoy commodity markets and inflation-sensitive sectors.

Sector Breakdown

Shelter Remains Elevated

• Shelter costs rose 0.3% month-over-month and 4.6% year-over-year. Shelter remains the largest contributor to core inflation but showed signs of stabilization.

• Implications for Traders: Persistent shelter inflation could limit the Fed’s flexibility, supporting higher-for-longer interest rate expectations.

Food Prices Steady but Mixed

• Food at home (+0.3%) and food away from home (+0.3%) rose in tandem. Cereals and bakery products saw a sharp rise (+1.2%), while nonalcoholic beverages (-0.4%) and fruits and vegetables (-0.1%) declined.

• Market Impact: Stable food inflation supports consumer purchasing power, benefiting consumer discretionary stocks.

Transportation and Autos Drive Core

• Used cars and trucks rebounded with a 1.2% increase, while new vehicles rose 0.5%. Airline fares surged 3.9%.

• Implications for Traders: Rising auto and transportation costs could impact consumer sentiment and provide short-term tailwinds to related industries.

Fed Policy Implications

With core CPI coming in below expectations, markets may interpret the data as a sign that inflation is moderating toward the Federal Reserve’s target. While headline inflation remains steady, the softer core reading could shift the Fed’s tone toward a more dovish stance, especially if cooling trends persist.

Trading Opportunities

1. Equities: Growth stocks and rate-sensitive sectors may gain on expectations of a dovish Fed. Defensive sectors may face headwinds if inflation pressures ease.

2. Bonds: Treasury yields could decline, particularly on the shorter end of the curve, as markets price in reduced rate hike probabilities.

3. Commodities: Energy markets may rally due to the sharp increase in gasoline and natural gas prices. Gold could see gains if inflation expectations moderate.

4. Forex: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) might weaken if traders anticipate a softer Fed policy path.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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35 pips and 210 points potential profit in 80 seconds on 10 January 2025, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY, EURUSD and US30 on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY, EURUSD and US30 moved around 35 pips and 210 points on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 10 January 2025.

USDJPY (19 pips)

EURUSD (16 pips)

US30 (210 points)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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December 2024 Employment Report: Key Takeaways for Traders

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its December 2024 Employment Situation Report today, revealing a mixed but largely positive labor market. Here’s what traders need to know and how the data could influence markets in the near term.

Key Highlights of the Report

• Nonfarm Payroll Growth:
  Nonfarm payrolls increased by 256,000, beating market expectations. Gains were led by health care, government, social assistance, and retail trade.

• Unemployment Rate:
  The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market despite concerns of potential softening.

• Wage Growth:
  Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month (+10 cents), bringing the annual wage growth to 3.9% year-over-year.

• Labor Force Participation Rate:
  Unchanged at 62.5%, maintaining the same range seen throughout 2024.

Market Implications

1. Equity Markets:

• Bullish Signal: The robust payroll growth could support cyclical sectors like retail, health care, and consumer discretionary.

• Earnings Potential: With strong wage gains and improved retail hiring, markets may see positive sentiment heading into Q1 earnings season.

• Caveat: If wage growth accelerates beyond expectations in future reports, it could reignite inflation fears.

2. Bond Markets:

• The steady unemployment rate and solid job gains could increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady. However, continued strength may push yields higher if investors price in a more hawkish Fed stance.

3. Forex Market:

• The U.S. dollar may strengthen in response to better-than-expected job numbers, as it reinforces confidence in the U.S. economy.

• Watch for USD pairs, particularly with currencies of economies that are experiencing slower labor market recoveries.

Sector Breakdown for December 2024

• Health Care (+46,000 jobs): Gains were seen across home health care services (+15,000), nursing care facilities (+14,000), and hospitals (+12,000). This continued sector strength may benefit health care ETFs and equities.

• Retail Trade (+43,000 jobs): A recovery from November’s losses was driven by increases in apparel, general merchandise, and health and personal care stores. Retail-focused traders may view this as a sign of resilient consumer demand.

• Government (+33,000 jobs): Job gains, primarily in state government roles, continued a positive trend, though at a slower pace than in 2023.

• Social Assistance (+23,000 jobs): Continued steady growth here supports the broader theme of demand for care services.

Wage and Workweek Trends

• Average Hourly Earnings: Up $0.10 to $35.69 (+3.9% YoY).

• Production and Nonsupervisory Workers: Wages increased by $0.06 to $30.62, signaling continued earnings momentum for middle-income workers.

However, the average workweek remained at 34.3 hours, unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, indicating stable labor utilization across sectors.

Revisions and Seasonal Adjustments

The revisions for October and November combined resulted in a net downward adjustment of 8,000 jobs. Traders should take note of these recalibrations, which may indicate some volatility in reporting but largely point to a stable employment trend.

Key Risks to Watch

• Fed Policy: Traders should monitor any commentary from Federal Reserve officials, as this report keeps the door open for either policy stability or future tightening if wage pressures persist.

• Economic Slowdown Concerns: While the labor market remains strong, longer-term concerns about a potential slowdown in consumer spending or corporate hiring could affect future payroll reports.

• Global Market Sentiment: The forex and commodity markets could be impacted by how global investors interpret the U.S. labor market’s strength relative to international economic conditions.

Conclusion

The December 2024 employment report reinforces the narrative of a robust U.S. labor market with healthy job creation, stable unemployment, and moderate wage growth. Traders should position themselves for potential equity market gains in cyclical sectors while keeping a close eye on bond yields and the Federal Reserve's evolving stance. The next employment report, scheduled for February 7, 2025, will provide further clues as to whether this momentum can continue into the new year.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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37 pips potential profit in 8 seconds on 6 December 2024, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 37 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 6 December 2024.

USDJPY (28 pips)

EURUSD (9 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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November 2024 U.S. Employment Report: Key Takeaways and Insights

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its November 2024 Employment Situation Report, highlighting continued growth in the labor market with some mixed signals. Here’s what you need to know:

Job Growth Surges, Led by Health Care and Leisure Industries

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in November, marking a strong rebound from the previous month's modest gain of 36,000. This growth surpasses the 12-month average increase of 186,000, signaling resilience despite broader economic uncertainties. Key contributors included:

• Health Care (+54,000): Growth was driven by ambulatory health care services (+22,000), home health care (+16,000), hospitals (+19,000), and nursing care facilities (+12,000).

• Leisure and Hospitality (+53,000): Food services and drinking places added the bulk of these jobs (+29,000), reflecting ongoing recovery in service-related industries.

• Government (+33,000): Gains were concentrated in state government employment (+20,000).

• Transportation Equipment Manufacturing (+32,000): The return of workers following strike actions fueled this sector’s rebound.

Unemployment Rate Holds Steady, but Challenges Persist

The unemployment rate remained relatively stable at 4.2%, up from 3.7% a year earlier. There are now 7.1 million unemployed Americans, reflecting ongoing challenges in the labor market recovery. Notable trends include:

• Long-term Unemployment: This group, defined as those jobless for 27 weeks or more, remains elevated at 1.7 million, making up 23.2% of total unemployed.

• Demographic Insights: Unemployment edged up for Black workers to 6.4%, while other major groups, including Whites (3.8%), Asians (3.8%), and Hispanics (5.3%), showed little change.

Labor Force and Participation Trends

The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.5%, maintaining a narrow range since late 2023. However, the employment-population ratio declined by 0.6 percentage points over the past year, landing at 59.8%. These metrics suggest some stagnation in workforce engagement.

Retail Trade Slumps as Seasonal Hiring Falters

Retail trade lost 28,000 jobs in November, marking a significant divergence from other industries. Losses were particularly sharp in general merchandise retailers (-15,000), though electronics and appliance retailers posted modest gains (+4,000). This decline could reflect shifting consumer patterns and cautious hiring ahead of the holiday season.

Earnings and Work Hours Tick Up

Wage growth continued at a steady pace, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.4% to $35.61. Over the past year, wages have risen by 4.0%, providing some relief against inflationary pressures. The average workweek for private nonfarm employees edged up to 34.3 hours, a positive indicator of labor demand.

Upward Revisions Reflect Stronger Momentum

Revised data for September and October show that employment gains were 56,000 higher than previously reported. September’s total was adjusted up to 255,000, and October’s figure increased to 36,000.

What It All Means

November’s employment report paints a picture of a labor market balancing growth with persistent challenges:

• Encouraging Sectors: Health care, leisure, and government sectors are driving job creation, reflecting the continued demand for essential services.

• Emerging Concerns: Retail trade losses and elevated long-term unemployment suggest pockets of weakness that merit attention.

• Stable Wages: The steady rise in wages is a positive for workers, though it remains to be seen if this can keep pace with inflation and higher living costs.

As we close out 2024, the labor market appears robust but not without its vulnerabilities. Policymakers, businesses, and job seekers will be closely watching December’s report, due on January 10, 2025, to gauge the economy’s trajectory into the new year.

Stay tuned for more updates on labor market trends and insights!

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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Start forex fx futures news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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54 pips potential profit in 11 seconds on 13 November 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 54 pips on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 13 November 2024.

USDJPY (32 pips)

EURUSD (22 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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October 2024 CPI Report: Key Highlights and Insights

Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals modest inflationary trends in October, showing a steady pace in prices with an overall increase of 0.2% for the month, consistent with the previous three months. This brings the year-over-year increase for all items to 2.6%, marking a slight acceleration from the 2.4% reported for September. Here’s a breakdown of the key drivers behind October’s CPI numbers and what it could mean for consumers and the economy.

Shelter Costs Remain a Key Driver of Inflation

Shelter costs, a substantial portion of the CPI, rose 0.4% in October. This increase accounted for more than half of the overall rise in the CPI for the month. Over the past 12 months, shelter costs have climbed by 4.9%, contributing significantly to the core inflation measure (all items less food and energy), which rose 3.3% year-over-year. Rent and owners’ equivalent rent both increased by 0.4% in October, reflecting the persistent upward pressure in housing costs.

Food Prices Continue to Climb, but at a Slower Pace

The food index increased by 0.2% in October, a slight slowdown from September’s 0.4% rise. Prices for food at home edged up 0.1%, with notable increases in cereals and bakery products (+1.0%) and dairy (+1.0%), as well as fruits and vegetables (+0.4%). However, the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index fell 1.2%, driven by a sharp 6.4% decrease in egg prices. For food away from home, including restaurant meals, prices rose 0.2%. Over the past year, food prices have risen by 2.1%.

Energy Index Stays Flat After Recent Declines

Following a 1.9% decline in September, the energy index remained unchanged in October, bringing some stability after several months of fluctuation. Gasoline prices continued their decline with a 0.9% drop, contributing to the 12.2% decrease over the past year. Fuel oil also saw a notable reduction, with prices down by 20.8% over the last 12 months. However, the cost of electricity increased 1.2% for the month and has risen by 4.5% over the year, while natural gas increased by 0.3% in October, up 2.0% year-over-year.

Core CPI Sees Steady Growth, Driven by Services and Transportation

The core CPI, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, rose by 0.3% in October. Services excluding energy increased 0.3% as well, with significant contributions from shelter and medical care. Used cars and trucks experienced a surprising uptick of 2.7% for the month, after several months of declines. Airline fares also jumped by 3.2%, and medical care services increased by 0.4%.

Apparel, Communication, and Household Furnishings Decline

While the prices of many items rose, some categories saw decreases. Apparel fell by 1.5% in October, following an increase in September, while communication and household furnishings indexes also experienced declines. These decreases helped to offset some of the monthly CPI gains, indicating some price variability across goods and services.

Annual Inflation and Outlook

The CPI report shows a steady 2.6% increase over the past 12 months, reflecting a measured but persistent inflationary environment. The energy index, which has been a source of relief with a 4.9% decrease over the year, helped balance the rise in shelter and other core costs. However, the uptick in core inflation, particularly from services and shelter, suggests ongoing challenges in keeping inflation within target levels.

Looking forward, the November CPI report, scheduled for December 11, will offer further insights into these trends. Key areas to watch will include the energy index, as seasonal adjustments for heating costs take effect, and shelter, which remains a major factor in inflation. The CPI data continues to be an essential gauge for understanding the economic pressures on consumers and will likely influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in the coming months.

In Summary

October’s CPI data suggests a stable but gradually rising inflation environment, with shelter costs as the dominant force. Food prices continue to rise moderately, while energy costs remain volatile but stable for now. As inflation remains slightly above the Federal Reserve’s target, policymakers and consumers alike will be keeping a close eye on these trends heading into the winter months.

Stay tuned for our next update following the release of November’s CPI data, as we continue to track the evolving inflation landscape and its implications for everyday life and economic policy.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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126 pips potential profit in 52 seconds on 4 October 2024, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 126 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 4 October 2024.

USDJPY (93 pips)

EURUSD (33 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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September 2024 Employment Report: Key Highlights and Insights

The U.S. job market continued to show resilience in September 2024, with total nonfarm payroll employment increasing by 254,000 jobs. This growth marks a stronger-than-average monthly gain, outpacing the 203,000 average of the past 12 months. The unemployment rate, however, held steady at 4.1%, reflecting a relatively stable labor market despite ongoing economic pressures and a significant weather event.

Noteworthy Sectors Leading Job Growth

Several key industries contributed to September's employment gains:

1. Food Services and Drinking Places: This sector saw a remarkable increase of 69,000 jobs, a substantial jump compared to its prior 12-month average of 14,000 jobs per month. This may suggest a resurgence in consumer spending on dining out, possibly influenced by seasonal factors or recovering demand following earlier economic fluctuations.

2. Health Care: Adding 45,000 jobs, this sector experienced slightly slower growth than its recent monthly average of 57,000. Key areas of hiring included:

   • Home health care services (+13,000)

   • Hospitals (+12,000)

   • Nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000)

3. Government: Employment in the public sector grew by 31,000, driven largely by gains in local (+16,000) and state (+13,000) government jobs. While this is positive, it remains below the prior 12-month average gain of 45,000.

4. Social Assistance: Adding 27,000 jobs, this sector's growth was focused primarily on individual and family services (+21,000). This reflects the growing need for support services in communities, highlighting social and demographic changes driving demand.

5. Construction: Employment rose by 25,000 jobs, continuing a steady trend of growth in the industry, fueled largely by nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+17,000). This aligns with broader infrastructure development efforts across the country.

Stable Sectors and Broader Labor Trends

While certain industries showed significant gains, others remained stable with little change in employment. These include mining, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and professional and business services.

Despite the steady job creation, unemployment held at 4.1%, equating to about 6.8 million unemployed individuals. This is higher than a year ago when the jobless rate was 3.8%, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million. The number of long-term unemployed, those out of work for 27 weeks or more, remained at 1.6 million, representing 23.7% of all unemployed individuals.

Moreover, the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.7%, a sign that the overall percentage of Americans either working or actively looking for work has stabilized, though it remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Economic Indicators Beyond Job Creation

Several additional data points from the report shed light on broader labor market dynamics:

• Wages: The average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 13 cents, or 0.4%, reaching $35.36. Year over year, wages have risen by 4.0%, indicating that wages are keeping pace with inflationary pressures.

• Workweek: The average workweek for all private-sector employees edged down slightly to 34.2 hours, while the manufacturing workweek remained steady at 40.0 hours.

Impact of Hurricane Francine

Hurricane Francine, which made landfall in southern Louisiana on September 11, had no discernible effect on national payroll employment, hours, or earnings, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Despite the storm's impact on local areas, national survey response rates remained within normal ranges, suggesting limited disruption at the national level. However, it will be important to monitor the October and November reports for any delayed effects in the regional labor markets most affected by the hurricane.

Revisions to Prior Data

The BLS also revised upward the employment changes for July and August by a combined 72,000 jobs. This upward revision highlights the challenges of gathering accurate, timely data, especially in the midst of economic uncertainty, but also reinforces the underlying strength of the job market over the summer months.

Looking Ahead

As we move toward the end of 2024, the labor market continues to exhibit signs of stability, though potential challenges remain. Rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, and external factors like extreme weather events could still influence employment trends in the coming months. The upcoming October 2024 employment report will provide further insights into how the job market is evolving and whether the current trajectory of growth can be sustained through the end of the year.

In the meantime, this month's report offers encouraging news for several key industries, particularly in service sectors like food, health care, and social assistance. Despite some broader economic concerns, the U.S. labor market remains on a solid footing.

Stay tuned for the next report on November 1, 2024, for the latest updates and analysis on the nation's employment situation.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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Start forex fx futures news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data today, one of the fastest news data feeds for US macro-economic and commodity data.

Please let us know your feedback. If you are interested in timestamps, please send us an email to sales@haawks.com.

27 pips potential profit in 7 seconds on 11 September 2024, analysis on futures forex fx low latency news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved 27 pips on US BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on 11 September 2024.

USDJPY (17 pips)

EURUSD (10 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Understanding the Latest CPI Data: Key Takeaways from August 2024

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2024 reveals subtle yet important trends in the U.S. economy. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose by 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, maintaining the same rate of increase as observed in July. Over the past 12 months, the index recorded a 2.5 percent increase before seasonal adjustments, marking a relatively modest inflationary trend compared to previous years.

Breakdown of CPI Components:

• Shelter: The cost of shelter continued to be a significant driver of the overall index, rising by 0.5 percent in August, thus contributing majorly to the broader index's movement.

• Food: Food prices saw a slight increase of 0.1 percent, with food away from home experiencing a higher rise of 0.3 percent compared to food at home, which remained unchanged.

• Energy: Contrasting these increases, the energy index fell by 0.8 percent, influenced by a significant drop in gasoline and fuel oil prices.

Year-over-Year Analysis:

• General Index: The all-items index increased by 2.5 percent over the year, the smallest 12-month rise since February 2021, indicating a cooling period after higher inflation rates experienced in recent years.

• Core Inflation: Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation was up by 3.2 percent year-over-year, suggesting underlying pressures remain despite the overall stabilization of the index.

• Specific Categories: Noteworthy annual increases were seen in shelter (5.2 percent), while energy commodities experienced sharp declines, particularly gasoline and fuel oil, highlighting the fluctuating nature of energy markets.

Sector-Specific Insights:

• Transportation: Airline fares notably increased by 3.9 percent in August after months of decline, likely reflecting seasonal travel adjustments and broader economic activities.

• Medical and Apparel: Both sectors saw modest increases, indicating varied consumer spending behaviors across different areas.

Forward-Looking Implications:

The CPI data not only serves as a gauge of past and current economic conditions but also provides insights into potential future trends. The steadiness in core inflation suggests that while the economy faces inflationary pressures, they may be becoming more entrenched at a moderate level. This has implications for monetary policy, as policymakers must balance stimulating economic growth with preventing runaway inflation.

Consumer Impact:

For consumers, understanding the CPI is crucial as it affects everyday decision-making regarding spending, saving, and investing. The variations in food, energy, and housing costs directly impact budgeting and financial planning.

Conclusion:

As we look forward to the CPI data for September 2024, scheduled for release in October, stakeholders from policymakers to consumers should consider the nuanced changes in the CPI components. Staying informed will be key to navigating the economic landscape, which remains dynamic amid varying inflationary pressures.

Inflation continues to be a critical economic indicator that demands close monitoring. For those planning budgets or investments, keeping an eye on these trends can provide essential insights into timing and strategy adjustments necessary to safeguard financial health in an ever-changing economic environment.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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Start futures forex fx news trading with Haawks G4A low latency machine-readable data, one of the fastest machine-readable news trading feed for US macro-economic and commodity data.

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90 pips potential profit in 51 seconds on 2 August 2024, analysis on forex fx futures news trading USDJPY and EURUSD on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls/NFP) data

According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 90 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 2 August 2024.

USDJPY (73 pips)

EURUSD (17 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

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Navigating Through the Tides: U.S. Employment Situation in July 2024

In the ever-evolving landscape of the U.S. labor market, July 2024 presented a nuanced picture of growth and challenges, as detailed in the latest release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The month saw the unemployment rate nudge up to 4.3 percent, alongside modest job growth, indicating both resilience and areas of concern in the economy. Here’s an in-depth look at the dynamics shaping the employment situation.

The Rise in Unemployment

July's slight uptick in unemployment to 4.3 percent, up from 4.1 percent in June, resulted in 352,000 more individuals being classified as unemployed. This increase in unemployment rates, especially notable among adult men and White populations, paints a picture of an economy that is still recalibrating post-pandemic and other macroeconomic pressures. This rate is significantly higher compared to last year's 3.5 percent, suggesting a slow but uncertain recovery path.

Sector-Specific Insights

The payroll data offers a glimpse into where the growth is happening and which sectors are lagging:

• Health Care: This sector added 55,000 jobs, maintaining a robust growth pattern, particularly in home health care services and hospitals. This is indicative of ongoing demand in the health services industry.

• Construction and Transportation: Both sectors continued to show resilience with steady job additions, which align with broader economic activities and infrastructural developments.

• Information Sector: In contrast, the information sector shed 20,000 jobs, highlighting the volatility in tech and media industries amidst shifting business models and technological disruptions.

Part-Time Work and Economic Reasons

An interesting facet of the July report is the rise in individuals working part-time for economic reasons, which jumped by 346,000 to 4.6 million. This increase suggests that while jobs are available, they may not fully meet the needs or qualifications of job seekers, or that businesses are hesitating to commit to full-time hires amid economic uncertainties.

Labor Force Dynamics

The labor force participation rate stood unchanged at 62.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio also held steady. However, the number of people not in the labor force but wanting a job increased notably by 366,000, reaching 5.6 million. These figures underscore a complex scenario where many are on the sidelines of the job market, possibly due to mismatches in job opportunities or other barriers to employment.

Earnings and Work Hours

Average hourly earnings saw a modest increase, suggesting mild wage pressures. The average workweek decreased slightly, which might reflect adjustments in business operations or shifts in employment from full-time to part-time roles.

Forward Look

The modest job growth and the rise in unemployment rate in July serve as a reminder of the fragile balance in the labor market. As businesses navigate through economic headwinds and policy changes, the coming months will be crucial in shaping the trajectory of recovery and growth.

As we look towards the August report, due to be released in early September, stakeholders from policymakers to investors, and everyday citizens will be keen on understanding whether these trends are a temporary blip or a sign of more profound shifts in the U.S. economy.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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Navigating the Economic Waves: A Deep Dive into the June 2024 Consumer Price Index Report

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June 2024, revealing a nuanced snapshot of the current economic environment. The report, which saw a slight decline of 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month, offers valuable insights into the shifting dynamics of consumer prices in the U.S. economy.

Key Highlights of the June 2024 CPI Report

The all items index, which measures a broad spectrum of consumer goods and services, rose by 3.0 percent over the last 12 months. This increment, though modest, indicates a slowdown from the 3.3 percent increase observed at the end of May 2024. Here's a closer look at some specific segments:

• Energy: The index for gasoline plummeted by 3.8 percent in June, mirroring a similar drop in May. This continued decline significantly contributed to the overall decrease in the energy index, which also fell by 2.0 percent over the month.

• Food: Contrary to the energy sector, food prices saw a slight increase. The overall food index rose by 0.2 percent, with the food away from home index up by 0.4 percent. This indicates sustained demand and perhaps a bit of resilience in the food sector despite broader economic conditions.

• Core Inflation: When stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI (all items less food and energy) inched up by 0.1 percent in June. Notably, this represents the smallest monthly increase since August 2021, signaling a potential cooling of underlying inflationary pressures.

Sector-Specific Analysis

The shelter index continues to be a significant driver of the core inflation, despite only increasing by 0.2 percent in June. This subtle rise is the smallest since August 2021, potentially indicating a cooling in the housing market. Meanwhile, the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings, and personal care all rose, underscoring that some areas of the economy are still experiencing upward price pressures.

Transportation services saw some of the most substantial fluctuations, particularly airline fares, which tumbled by 5.0 percent in June after a 3.6-percent decline in May. This drop could be reflecting seasonal adjustments or broader changes in consumer travel behavior.

Economic Implications and Consumer Impact

The latest CPI data suggests a mixed bag of economic signals. While the decline in energy prices can offer some relief to consumers, the rise in food and shelter costs could offset these benefits. Additionally, the modest rise in core CPI indicates that while inflationary pressures may be cooling, they remain present, affecting the cost of living and potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.

For consumers, understanding these trends is crucial. Those planning budgets or major purchases will find it beneficial to track such indices closely, as they directly impact everyday expenses. On a broader scale, these trends also provide insight into the health of the U.S. economy, offering clues about potential future actions by policymakers, such as interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve.

Looking Ahead

As we move into the second half of 2024, all eyes will be on the upcoming July CPI report, due for release on August 14. Will the trend of modest increases continue, or will we see a reversal in certain sectors? Only time will tell, but for now, consumers and economists alike should remain vigilant, monitoring these indicators closely as they navigate the complex landscape of the U.S. economy.

In conclusion, the June 2024 CPI report paints a picture of an economy experiencing varied sectoral dynamics, highlighting the importance of nuanced analysis in understanding the overall economic health and making informed decisions.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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Understanding the Consumer Price Index for May 2024: Insights and Implications

The recent release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May 2024 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics offers a detailed glimpse into the economic trends and consumer pricing landscape. Notably, the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) remained unchanged in May, after a modest increase of 0.3 percent in April. Over the past 12 months, the overall index has seen an increase of 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Key Highlights from the May 2024 CPI Data:

• Stable Consumer Prices: The overall stability in the CPI-U in May contrasts with the previous month's rise, reflecting a balance between sectors where prices increased and those that saw declines.

• Shelter Costs Continue to Climb: The shelter index rose by 0.4 percent, maintaining the same growth rate for four consecutive months, which indicates a persistent upward pressure on housing costs.

• Divergence in Food Prices: While the overall food index nudged up by 0.1 percent, significant variation was observed within this category. The food away from home index increased by 0.4 percent, in contrast to the unchanged status of the food at home index.

• Decrease in Energy Prices: The energy index decreased by 2.0 percent in May, driven by a substantial 3.6 percent drop in the gasoline index. This decline helped offset some of the rising costs in other areas.

Detailed Analysis:

1. Sector-Specific Trends:

   • Energy: The sharp decline in gasoline prices significantly impacted the energy sector, which saw an overall decline despite previous increases. This decrease in energy costs, while beneficial in curbing overall inflation, raises questions about the volatility in energy markets.

   • Food: The modest increase in the food index is reflective of a relatively stable food pricing environment, although variations exist between dining out and eating at home, with the former experiencing higher inflation.

   • Healthcare and Education: Both sectors saw increases, with medical care rising by 0.5 percent in May and education by 0.4 percent, indicating ongoing cost pressures in these essential services.

2. Economic Implications:

   • The stability in the CPI indicates a balancing act between rising and falling sectors, suggesting that while certain costs continue to rise, overall inflation pressures are being moderated by declines in other areas like energy.

   • The persistent increase in shelter costs is a concern for long-term affordability and living standards, particularly in urban areas where CPI measurements are most applicable.

3. What to Watch:

   • Future Energy Prices: Given the volatility in the energy sector, future reports should be closely monitored to gauge whether May’s decrease in energy prices is a temporary dip or the start of a longer-term trend.

   • Food and Shelter Costs: As these are significant components of the CPI and directly impact consumer budgets, ongoing increases could pose challenges for consumer spending power.

Conclusion:

The May 2024 CPI report highlights the complex interplay of various economic factors influencing consumer prices. With the index for all items less food and energy rising modestly, it’s crucial for policymakers and consumers alike to monitor these trends closely, particularly as they relate to the cost of living and inflation expectations.

Looking ahead, the next CPI release scheduled for July will provide further insights into whether these trends are solidifying, offering a clearer picture of the economic direction in the second half of 2024. For now, consumers and analysts alike would do well to keep an eye on the evolving economic landscape, especially in sectors like energy, food, and housing, which are crucial to everyday financial planning and policy formulation.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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