According to our analysis there was a potential of 262 pips / ticks profit out of the following 6 events in October 2024. The potential performance in 2023 was 13,607 pips / ticks.

• US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) (126 pips / 4 October 2024)

• US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims and US Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (47 pips / 17 October 2024)

• US Jobless Claims (24 pips / 24 October 2024)

• DOE Natural Gas Storage Report (34 ticks / 24 October 2024)

• US BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLT) (15 pips / 29 October 2024)

• US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (16 pips / 30 October 2024)

Total trading time would have been around 4 minutes! (preparation time not included)

U.S. Economic Updates: September and October 2024 Key Data Highlights

The U.S. economy has recently seen several critical reports that provide insights into its current state and potential future trajectory. From employment figures to consumer spending and industrial activity, here’s a summary of the major economic releases for September and October 2024.

1. September 2024 Employment Report

The U.S. labor market demonstrated resilience in September 2024, as total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 254,000 jobs. This increase surpassed the average monthly gain of 203,000 observed over the previous 12 months. Despite this, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, maintaining stability amid ongoing economic uncertainties and the impact of Hurricane Francine, which fortunately did not significantly disrupt national employment figures.

Key Industry Highlights:

• Food Services and Drinking Places: Added 69,000 jobs, showcasing a strong rebound compared to its average growth of 14,000 jobs per month over the prior year.

• Health Care: Grew by 45,000 jobs, with notable increases in home health care services (+13,000) and hospitals (+12,000).

• Government: Added 31,000 positions, though this was below its 12-month average of 45,000.

• Social Assistance: Grew by 27,000 jobs, predominantly driven by individual and family services.

• Construction: Increased by 25,000 jobs, supported by nonresidential specialty trade contractors.

Despite these gains, the number of unemployed individuals remained at 6.8 million, slightly higher than the previous year’s 6.3 million. The labor force participation rate was steady at 62.7%, still below pre-pandemic levels.

Wages and Workweek: Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% to $35.36, marking a year-over-year increase of 4.0%. The average workweek edged down slightly to 34.2 hours.

2. Retail Sales Report - September 2024

Retail and food services sales reached $714.4 billion in September 2024, reflecting a 0.4% month-over-month increase and a 1.7% rise compared to September 2023. This period saw a 2.3% year-over-year increase over the July-September quarter, pointing to steady consumer demand.

Highlights:

• Nonstore Retailers: Experienced a robust 7.1% year-over-year growth.

• Food Services and Drinking Places: Increased by 3.7% from September 2023.

• Traditional Retail: Showed a moderate 0.3% month-over-month and 1.4% year-over-year increase.

3. Unemployment Insurance Claims

The labor market showed mixed trends in unemployment insurance claims:

• October 12 Report: Initial jobless claims dropped by 19,000 to 241,000, but the four-week moving average rose slightly to 236,250, indicating lingering fluctuations.

• October 19 Report: Initial claims fell further by 15,000 to 227,000. However, the four-week average increased to 238,500, suggesting that while new claims were declining, ongoing volatility persisted.

The insured unemployment rate for the week ending October 12 rose to 1.3%, and continuing claims grew by 28,000 to 1.897 million, marking the highest level since November 2021. This uptick suggests that while fewer people are filing new claims, more individuals are remaining on unemployment rolls.

4. Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey - October 2024

The October survey indicated renewed strength in the manufacturing sector:

• General Activity Index: Rose to 10.3 from 1.7 in September, marking the second consecutive month of growth.

• New Orders and Shipments: Moved into positive territory with indices of 14.2 and 7.4, respectively.

• Employment Index: Declined to -2.2, suggesting a small portion of firms were reducing staff.

Manufacturers remained optimistic, with 47% expecting increased activity over the next six months. Capital expenditure plans for 2025 were robust, with investments anticipated in software and equipment.

5. Natural Gas Storage Report - October 18, 2024

Heading into the colder months, natural gas storage levels were strong:

• Total Working Gas: Reached 3,785 billion cubic feet (Bcf), an increase of 80 Bcf from the prior week.

• Year-Over-Year and Five-Year Averages: Storage was 106 Bcf above last year and 167 Bcf over the five-year average.

• Regional Insights:

  • Midwest Region: Saw a 21 Bcf increase, up 1.9% from last year.

  • Mountain Region: Grew by 4 Bcf, marking a significant 15.9% year-over-year increase.

The overall healthy storage levels indicate that the market is well-prepared for potential demand spikes during the winter.

6. September 2024 JOLTS Report

Job openings remained steady at 7.4 million, slightly below August’s revised figure of 7.9 million, indicating a cooling trend compared to the previous year. Hiring rates stayed at 5.6 million, and the quit rate, a measure of worker confidence, was unchanged at 1.9%.

Notable Trends:

• Quits in professional and business services fell, while layoffs in durable goods manufacturing rose.

• The layoffs and discharges rate was 1.2%, signaling some workforce reassessment.

7. Q3 2024 GDP Report

The economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.8%, down slightly from Q2’s 3.0%. Consumer spending, federal government spending, and exports drove growth, while private inventory investment and residential fixed investment declined.

Inflation and Income:

• The price index for gross domestic purchases rose by 1.8%, indicating easing inflation.

• Personal income increased by $221.3 billion, with a decrease in the savings rate to 4.8%.

Final Thoughts

These economic releases paint a nuanced picture of the U.S. economy as it navigates the latter part of 2024. While job growth, consumer spending, and manufacturing activity show resilience, indicators like unemployment claims and GDP deceleration suggest caution. As we approach the end of 2024, monitoring these trends will be crucial for understanding how the U.S. economy may evolve into 2025.

Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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