According to our analysis USDJPY and EURUSD moved around 126 pips on US Employment Situation (Non-farm payrolls / NFP) data on 4 October 2024.

USDJPY (93 pips)

EURUSD (33 pips)

Charts are exported from JForex (Dukascopy).

September 2024 Employment Report: Key Highlights and Insights

The U.S. job market continued to show resilience in September 2024, with total nonfarm payroll employment increasing by 254,000 jobs. This growth marks a stronger-than-average monthly gain, outpacing the 203,000 average of the past 12 months. The unemployment rate, however, held steady at 4.1%, reflecting a relatively stable labor market despite ongoing economic pressures and a significant weather event.

Noteworthy Sectors Leading Job Growth

Several key industries contributed to September's employment gains:

1. Food Services and Drinking Places: This sector saw a remarkable increase of 69,000 jobs, a substantial jump compared to its prior 12-month average of 14,000 jobs per month. This may suggest a resurgence in consumer spending on dining out, possibly influenced by seasonal factors or recovering demand following earlier economic fluctuations.

2. Health Care: Adding 45,000 jobs, this sector experienced slightly slower growth than its recent monthly average of 57,000. Key areas of hiring included:

   • Home health care services (+13,000)

   • Hospitals (+12,000)

   • Nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000)

3. Government: Employment in the public sector grew by 31,000, driven largely by gains in local (+16,000) and state (+13,000) government jobs. While this is positive, it remains below the prior 12-month average gain of 45,000.

4. Social Assistance: Adding 27,000 jobs, this sector's growth was focused primarily on individual and family services (+21,000). This reflects the growing need for support services in communities, highlighting social and demographic changes driving demand.

5. Construction: Employment rose by 25,000 jobs, continuing a steady trend of growth in the industry, fueled largely by nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+17,000). This aligns with broader infrastructure development efforts across the country.

Stable Sectors and Broader Labor Trends

While certain industries showed significant gains, others remained stable with little change in employment. These include mining, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and professional and business services.

Despite the steady job creation, unemployment held at 4.1%, equating to about 6.8 million unemployed individuals. This is higher than a year ago when the jobless rate was 3.8%, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million. The number of long-term unemployed, those out of work for 27 weeks or more, remained at 1.6 million, representing 23.7% of all unemployed individuals.

Moreover, the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.7%, a sign that the overall percentage of Americans either working or actively looking for work has stabilized, though it remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Economic Indicators Beyond Job Creation

Several additional data points from the report shed light on broader labor market dynamics:

• Wages: The average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 13 cents, or 0.4%, reaching $35.36. Year over year, wages have risen by 4.0%, indicating that wages are keeping pace with inflationary pressures.

• Workweek: The average workweek for all private-sector employees edged down slightly to 34.2 hours, while the manufacturing workweek remained steady at 40.0 hours.

Impact of Hurricane Francine

Hurricane Francine, which made landfall in southern Louisiana on September 11, had no discernible effect on national payroll employment, hours, or earnings, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Despite the storm's impact on local areas, national survey response rates remained within normal ranges, suggesting limited disruption at the national level. However, it will be important to monitor the October and November reports for any delayed effects in the regional labor markets most affected by the hurricane.

Revisions to Prior Data

The BLS also revised upward the employment changes for July and August by a combined 72,000 jobs. This upward revision highlights the challenges of gathering accurate, timely data, especially in the midst of economic uncertainty, but also reinforces the underlying strength of the job market over the summer months.

Looking Ahead

As we move toward the end of 2024, the labor market continues to exhibit signs of stability, though potential challenges remain. Rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, and external factors like extreme weather events could still influence employment trends in the coming months. The upcoming October 2024 employment report will provide further insights into how the job market is evolving and whether the current trajectory of growth can be sustained through the end of the year.

In the meantime, this month's report offers encouraging news for several key industries, particularly in service sectors like food, health care, and social assistance. Despite some broader economic concerns, the U.S. labor market remains on a solid footing.

Stay tuned for the next report on November 1, 2024, for the latest updates and analysis on the nation's employment situation.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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